It looks more and more likely that next week will bring a significant chill and a reasonable chance for rain and snow. First, the chill. Here is the Climate Prediction Center‘s (CPC) 6-10 day outlook covering April 22-26, Thursday-Monday.
It’s very unusual for the CPC to show anything in the 80% range. With forecasted temperatures being in the mid-20’s, it is unlikely we will break any records. For late april, the record lows for Flagstaff range from 7-17F.
From a precipitation point of view, I think the models are highly variable. It looks like there will be an early week, low precipitation probability storm and a later week, high precipitation probability storm. The second storm looks to bring the colder temperatures with it. With projected lows for Flagstaff in the mid-20’s, the snow level could drop to the 5,500-foot level. It’s still a good ways out. Daytime temperatures will be warmer and may allow us to only see rain. Following the recent dry trend, we may just get wind.