Finally, we have had a few days with warmer temperatures that are allowing the snow melt to occur. Last night temperatures didn’t drop below freezing until about 2 am. That made for a long day of warmth for a change. It has been “cold” since mid-November as shown on the graph below. Temperatures have been mostly below average for Flagstaff since then. Since October first, the area below average exceeds the area above the curve by 165 degree-days.
Temperature compared to historic average October 2009 - January 2010
The models keep shifting around for the next week or so. Looks like we will get some snow this weekend, mostly focused around Saturday night and Sunday. Even for this near-term horizon, the precipitation forecasts keep shifting in the 2-10 inch range. 4-6 inches would seem to be a good bet. Precipitation looks to continue, off and on, for the next couple weeks, with storms providing more of a direct hit for Northern Arizona. These storms will have varying amounts of precipitation in them.
Interesting side note: using the National Weather Service’s “Detailed Point Forecast” Map, if you click near the Flagstaff Airport, it forecasts 4-8 inches of snow for Sunday. If you click on the downtown area, or where my weather station is located, it gives 2-4 inches. Go figure. I think it might be the altitude. Seems like the airport always gets less precipitation than any place else.
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