Jan 212010
 

I seriously doubt it. One set of model runs on Thursday made it appear that all the precipitation was going to be to the south of Flagstaff. Not this morning.

48 hour precipitation total - NAM Model - Climate Prediction Center

48 hour precipitation total - NAM Model - Climate Prediction Center

I still think those deeper yellows and oranges are to the south, but, maybe not. Here are some numbers from various sources:

Accuweather.com            32.9 inches
Intellicast.com            13-20 inches
Wunderground.com           28-48 inches (with more hevy snow overnight Friday night - Saturday morning)
NOAA Graphical            ~31.6 inches
National Weather Service   25-41 inches

There is a chance for a break from snow to rain this afternoon or evening.

No matter how you slice it, there is going to be a lot of snow. It could be very heavy and wet. Please, take care and be safe.

Here is a trivia question. If someone leaves the Phoenix airport at 2pm on Friday, January 22, 2010 at 2pm, how long will it be until the arrive at the Pulliam Airport exit in Flagstaff? Assume the driver have 15 years experience driving in Arizona and is driving a red Jeep Wrangler.

Here is the WINTER STORM WARNING from the National Weather Service. Keep in mind they have been as close to perfect on their forecasts this winter

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
433 AM MST THU JAN 21 2010

AZZ015-211945-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100123T1900Z/
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FLAGSTAFF
433 AM MST THU JAN 21 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY
ABOVE 6500 FEET...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST
SATURDAY.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH AT LEAST
  FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY
  SATURDAY.

* SNOW LEVELS: SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BELOW 7500 FEET IN
  THE EVENING...SNOW LEVELS WILL THEN FALL RAPIDLY BY LATE
  THURSDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: EXPECT 2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW BY SATURDAY ABOVE
  6500 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING NEAR BLIZZARD
  CONDITIONS WITH WHITE-OUT VISIBILITIES AND DAMAGING WINDS
  POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. IF
POSSIBLE...POSTPONE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA UNTIL THIS
STORM PASSES.

IF YOU MUST TRAVEL TAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES THAT INCLUDE WINTER
CLOTHING...FOOD...WATER AND A FLASHLIGHT. FOR THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT WWW.AZ511.COM.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

Stu

 Posted by at 4:55 am

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