Jan 172010
 

In case you missed it: WINTER STORM WATCH from the National Weather Service. It will probably be upgraded to a warning.

SEE UPDATE AT BOTTOM OF POST:

Here is a look at the GFS precipitation model through midday Tuesday.

Precipitation through midday Tuesday - GFS Model

Precipitation through midday Tuesday - GFS Model

Flagstaff looks to be in the 1 – 1.5 inch range here. Using the rough estimate of 1 inch of water equals 10 inches of snow, this would be 10-15 inches.

Here is the same graph for the NAM Model.

Precipitation through midday Tuesday - NAM Model

Precipitation through midday Tuesday - NAM Model

This seems to have Flagstaff in the 0.75-1.0 inch range, or 8-10 inches of snow. Keep in mind that heavy wet snow and light dry snow will have different volumes. In either case, this is a fairly good sized storm.

The real story is that it doesn’t stop there. Tuesday night and Wednesday night are going to be similar to Monday night. Thursday holds a little shift to the game. The storm that hits then will be warmer when it starts. We could see rain up to 8000 feet for the start of the storm before snow levels drop. This last storm could bring several inches of water. What a mess that will be.

The Shark Oil Barometer was still clear at noon today. Bet it won’t be tomorrow at noon.

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff needs your snow reports. Here is a pdf that tells you how to report:

snowreports.pdf (mirrored on my site)

snowreports.pdf (on the NWS site)

UPDATE Monday, January 18 from the National Weather Service:

FOR THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...IF
SCENARIO ONE (WARM AND WET)...THEN THERE WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
1 TO 3 FEET OF WET HEAVY SNOW...SCENARIO TWO (COLDER AND WET) THEN
THERE WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 5 FEET OF SNOW.

Stu

 Posted by at 8:01 pm

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