UPDATE: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT from the National Weather Service (1350pm Friday)
It looks like most of the moisture will be farther south with the first wave of next week’s storms. Here is the 36 total precipitation forecast (Monday morning through midday on Tuesday) from the National Weather Service’s GFS Model.
Notice the heavier blues are slightly to the south of Flagstaff. It looks to me like Flagstaff is north of the blue areas. I think this would match with 4-8 inches. The models don’t capture orographic effects from upslope winds. Still, Accuweather has forecasted 12inches of snow for Monday and Tuesday. There should be at least a let up in the action Tuesday afternoon. But, the next wave comes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Again, it’s looking like most of the moisture will be to the south.
Then, there seems to be a break Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. Next weekend’s storm seems to be headed straight for Flagstaff with lots of moisture. But, that is a week out.
Here is the total precipitation outlook between this morning (1-15-10) and next Friday morning. Flagstaff looks to be in comfortable in the 1-2 inch of water range. That should roughly translate to 1-2 feet of snow for the week. A similar pattern is in store for the last week of the month, too.