Wow! Yesterday morning, the rain we had was simply delightful. Watching it gently fall with a cup of coffee in my hand was great.
Yesterday afternoon, the town was shutdown with a massive torrential rainfall. 89A, Milton at the railroad bridge, and Soliere were all flooded and closed. Other minor side streets had similar issues. It took my daughter over an hour to go 3 miles to work last night. Here is a great image and story from the Arizona Daily Sun.
Milton Flooding - Arizona Daily Sun
It was a record rainfall day for the airport.
PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 1.33R 1.33 2010 0.10 1.23 T
MONTH TO DATE 5.64 2.30 3.34 1.00
SINCE SEP 1 19.83 19.92 -0.09 12.56
SINCE JAN 1 15.12 12.18 2.94 6.20
Notice that even with last fall and last spring being very dry, the wet winter and summer have boosted us to normal precipitation levels since last September. Here is the radar estimation of precipitation from yesterday (Intellicast.com)
24 Rainfall estimate - Intellicast.com (will update with time)
The current trend is to last through the weekend. Next week should be more like the standard monsoon pattern.
As I sit here watching rain fall at nearly 1 inch per hour at my house, I came across two interesting pieces of information. First, here is a video clip of Joe Bastardi at Accuweather discussing the global sea ice situation and the near term outlook for global temperatures.
Ice, Ice Baby – Joe Bastardi @ Accuweather.com
It’s an interesting look at what’s happening in the face of a report from NOAA that June was the hottest on record based on surface station data. But, you should also be aware that the June satellite data showed global temperatures only slightly above historic norms.
So, what is going on at the North Pole? NOAA has a webcam up there
NOAA's North Pole Webcam
There is a bit of water present at the North Pole, but I think that might be from an actual rain storm that passed through. If you watch the video, it seems likely. Certainly not as melted as it was in the well-known submarine photos.
Seadragon (SSN-584), foreground, and her sister Skate (SSN-578) during a rendezvous at the North Pole in August 1962.
Flagstaff’s dewpoints are much above average historic levels. This is driving our intense rainfall amounts. The Flagstaff airport has received 4.165 inches of rain. I have gotten 2.74 inches at my house. 2008, the first July with my station operating, I measured over 4 inches of rain. Bellemont has received 3.13 inches. These variances are typical of the monsoon season. One place gets rain, the next place gets nothing.
But, the dewpoints are quite high. Here is a graph for July.
Flagstaff Dewpoint Temperature - July 2010
After a slow start, the moisture is firmly in place. The National Weather Service actually has “Heavy Rain” in the forecast for the next few days. We can expect more of the same for the next few days.
Sadly, the folks in the Timberline area are still realizing the severe damage from the campfire-caused Schultz Fire. With this weeks heavy monsoon action, flash flooding has ruined homes and neighborhoods and taken the life on one young girl. Keep those folks in your thoughts and prayers.
The National Weather Service has done a great job warning about this danger well in advance of the recent onset of the monsoonal thunderstorms. Here are several important links:
July 20 Flood
Schultz Burn Area Hydrologic Outlook
NWS Flash Flooding
Moisture levels are going to continue to remain high for the rest of this week. Localized flash flooding can happen in many areas. Also, keep in mind that the storm doesn’t have to be overhead to affect flooding in your area. It can take place miles away, but the drainage pathways, narrow canyons and washes, can lead the water to cause massive flooding at your location.
Yesterday, and again today, general cloudiness is a sign of moisture being present. But, if the clouds don’t “burn-off” it can inhibit the formation of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms provide the lift to produce the cooling and condensing of the water vapor. The diffuse lighting and cloud reflect prevent the formation of storms.
Days like today can limit precipitation, or see formation of thunderstorms later in the day.
Did not really see the big storm coming yesterday. I thought things would hold off until today, Saturday. This should be the weather pattern for the weekend. Dewpoints have remained high. There is plenty of precipitable water. Watch-out for flash flooding.
Check this out. A record high and a record low within a few hundred miles of each other? Must be monsoon season.
Record Report
000
SXUS75 KFGZ 170155
RERFGZ
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
600 PM MST FRI JUL 16 2010
...RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JUL 16 2010...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW HIGH LOW PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
HEBER RS (1951 - 2010) 66 65 IN 1963
PRESCOTT (1898 - 2010) 71 70 IN 1970
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JUL 16 2010...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
PAGE (1958 - 2010) 106 104 IN 2006
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JUL 16 2010...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
PETRIFIED FOREST (1931 - 2010) 50 52 IN 1935
THESE RECORDS ARE PRELIMINARY PENDING OFFICIAL REPORTS.
The dark red areas on this map are excessive heat warning areas.
Excess Heat Warnings - July 15, 2010
They just happen to correspond to the desired location of a deep thermal low that would assist the moisture flow to the Flagstaff area. As many people have said, it really has to get hot for the monsoon to really kick in. It has been getting progressively warmer the last few days. At the same time, dewpoints have stayed mostly in the 40′s. The next few days will be mostly dry with plenty of big puffy clouds, but things should change by the weekend.
Thermal low pressure and the flow of monsoonal moisture
My weather station logged 0.29 inches on Sunday, as a couple thunderstorm waves moved over Flagstaff. Not every place logged as much.
Flagstaff Dewpoint - SUmmer 2010
Monday will maintain higher dewpoints and good chances for thunderstorms. But, as we go into the week, we will see dryer air move back into the area. Of course, this means lower chances for thunderstorms. They should still be possible.
It’s interesting to note that Los Angeles is still in the “June Gloom” mode. This is fairly late in the season for cooler temperatures and gloomy conditions. They set a record for a low, daily maximum temperatures. I am wondering what the meaning of this and high heat on the East Coast and in Central Europe are to our summer monsoon outlook.
This picture represents what happens when we get high pressure building in the right place. Things should build for the next few days, with the weekend have a strong chance for scattered thunderstorms.
Monsoon Pattern to Return
Well, the 4th of July came and went without the slightest hint of a thunderstorm. This is notable. Seems like July 4th’s bring precipitation to the Northland.This pattern should shift this week. For the next couple of days, high pressure to the southwest of us, which has crept in from the west, will dominate and continue to bring us southwest winds. The flow will shift later in the week as low pressure builds to the southwest of us. This sets up the typical monsoonal flow. By next weekend, the moisture should return, with thunderstorms building.
The Arizona Daily Sun has a front page article about our notable weather last year. As a reminder, the dry monsoon season last summer was due to El Nino. El Nino repositioned the high pressure over us and prevented the monsonal moisture flow.Wildly clear skies resulted in our above average temperatures and no cooling from daily cloud development. El Nino was also responsible for our major snow falls. But, El Nino you typically bring a warmer pattern for the winter. This was clearly not the case.
