Tropical Storm Alex could provide a boost to the moisture flow to the southwest as it moves across Northern Mexico. It could also draw off that same moisture as it exits the Southwestern US to the north. Moisture has been building back in since the recent drying trend. The NWS has included about a 30% chance of thunderstorms to their forecast for the next few days. The thermal low that helps drive the monsoon has been developing as well.
As Alex moves to the west, it will bring moisture with it. The big question is what will happen to the moisture flow as it exits. Will the flow continue, or be disrupted? Right now, high pressure doesn’t appear to over Arizona and New Mexico when Alex exits. Hopefully, this will mean we keep the pump flowing. The exit of Alex to the north doesn’t happen until after Thursday, so it’s up in the air.
The good news is that it looks like we are done with the dry southwest flow and winds for a few days.
Temperatures stayed elevated last night as the moisture from the south made it to Northern Arizona. Dewpoints have been boosted to the low 30′s. This should help with the Schultz Fire. But, the National Weather service is forecasting only isolated, dry thunderstorms…with lightning.
But, I am starting to wonder as I look at this mornings sky, and the precipitable water and dewpoint maps from NWS-Tucson. Both would point to a decent chance of rain today. It’s all about timing. The southwest winds are expected to kick in again today. As you can see, there is another band of dry air to the southwest, waiting to move into area.
This weekend should be warm and dry. The next moisture plume looks to arrive mid to late next week.
Dewpoint 6-25-2010
Total Precipitable Water 6-25-2010
Schultz Fire - Back Burn
Fire Fighters set a back burn around Schultz Tank around lunchtime today. Many people were concerned at the abrupt smoke plume.
High pressure moving into the right position for drawing moisture up from the south. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the moisture will make it up to Flagstaff this week. Here is a picture showing hoe the position of the high pressure drives moisture around to the north into the Southwestern US. More information can be found on my Monsoon Mechanics website.
Early Monsoonal Flow
For the Schultz Fire, the winds have shifted to being out of the north this morning. This should change back to the southwest and clear the smoke out of the downtown and Cheshire areas.
Dry southwest winds are on tap for the area again today. Not good for fire fighting. It looks like the first dose of monsoonal moisture will be on it’s way Thursday, but it may not make it all the way to the Flagstaff area. But, the winds should slowly die down over the next few days. But, that will come with warmer temperatures as we head towards normal, to above normal temperatures
For today, I think the dewpoint forecast map tells the tale: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/td700mb.php
On a nice note, the days were warm and the nights were cool at Lake Powell over the weekend. Remember not to park too close to the water and leave your car for several days. We watch many cars get towed from the parking lot near Wahweap Marina. Both sets of tires were in the water on them, and one car had it’s front end in the water. The water level went up over 3 feet in the last week. The rate is slowing, though.
UPDATED: Photos from about 4PM minutes before Highway 89 was closed. Tonight flames are visible from downtown Flagstaff. The smoke has a red-orange glow to it. More pictures here: http://stu-in-flag.net/schultzfire/
From the entrance to the national forest, north Flagstaff on 89
Top of the Pass on the east side of the Peaks - 89
In the smoke, starting to head downhill to Timberline
On Highway 89, in Timberline Area
Looking back to northwest after coming through the smoke
Heading up 4th Street in Flagstaff
Wow, What a mess! Yesterday the Hardy fire. Today the Schultz fire.
Here is a link to the National Weather Service Webcam:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/webcam/cam_an.php?wfo=fgz
It shows the clouds over the Peaks.
I drove back from Lake Powell this afternoon around 4pm, just before Highway 89 was closed. It was smoky and the flames were visible from the road. I took pictures all the way. I will try to post some later tonight. I recommend listening to KAFF (AM930/FM92.9) or checking the Daily Sun, AZ Central or NAZ Today websites for more information.
There is a fire north east of Williams. The Eagle Rock Fire started yesterday. The high winds hampered efforts. The aerial crews were grounded because of the winds. The winds have also brought much low dewpoints. Overnight the dewpoint at my weather station dropped to 12F. The Airport is report 20F for the dewpoint. It had been hovering in the low to mid-30s. Winds are going to whip up again today. They should be out of the southwest. More fire information can be found at the Southwest Coordination Center. They run a Twitter update as well.
Lake Powell rocketed past my guess for max water level for this summer. I guessed 3635 feet as the max height. It gain 0.54 feet (over 6 inches) on Tuesday to reach 3635.14. The 3642-43 foot range may still be a reasonable end point as the rate of increase has fallen from it’s recent highs of about 3/4 foot per day. The inflow rates to the lake have dropped as well. More data can be found at the Lake Powell Water Database.
Lake Powell Water Level
Looks like most of Flagstaff avoided freezing temperatures this weekend. But, some outlying areas, like Bellemont and Fort Valley. KAZFLAGS29, a personal weather station at in the Fort Valley(Baderville?) area recorded a low of 27F yesterday morning. The weather service in Bellemont reported a low of 27F.
It’s always odd to see a record breaking hot weekend followed by record breaking cold the next weekend, or vice versa. Record cold temperatures and record low high temperatures were recorded over the weekend.
Things are looking up from here. Next weekend will hopefully be a near perfect June weekend.
Sorry folks. This weekend takes us back to May. Lows from Friday through early next week will move back down into the freezing range. I doubt it will get that cold. There will be more moisture in the air and potentially overnight clouds to help us out. Still, we are not beyond chance of a freeze. People in typically cooler areas, like Bellemont or Fort Valley, should be prepared.
Spring Freeze Probabilities - Flagstaff Airport
Interestingly, over the last week the dewpoints across most of the southwest have remained high. This weekend, as a cold late season low pressure system moves across Arizona, more moisture will be drawn north. Most of Northern Arizona will see chances of thunderstorms from Friday to Monday. Temperatures will drop with this storm as well.
Flagstaff Dewpoints
