The models continue to trend towards smaller precipitation amounts. We will probably see a couple inches here and a couple inches there over the next two days. These is still an outside chance for something more significant. But, more than likely, it will continue to fall apart. Bummer
We will get wind. Lots of it.
While it continues to look like we will get something, the forecasted strength of the upcoming storm is decreasing. Some models still had upto 1 inch of water for Northern Arizona last night. This morning it looks like most of the precipitation will take a more southerly track. Flagstaff could still see up to half an inch of water spread out over 2-3 days, starting Wednesday. So, it’s looking white, but not like a major snow event. This could still change.
Today should be very windy.
Turns out April 1st precipitation chances are pretty good. I did two historic looks, both going back 15 years to 1995. One look at April Fools day alone. The other look at the week surrounding April 1st, March 29 to April 4. I thought precipitation on either side could still seem like it snowed on April 1st in our memory. Here are the results:
April Fools Day Precipitation History
Check out 1997-2000. I’ll have to look a little deeper at those some time. Every year except 1995, 2001, 2003 and 2008 had precipitation fall in the week surrounding April 1st. Five years, 1997-2000 and 2004, had precipitation specifically fall on April 1st.
I am no longer positive if I was remembering 1998 or 1999. Either way, both years were rather wet and had snow reported. But, The timing of 1999 matches my memory of bad weather starting on Wednesday night or Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Here is the profile for 1999:
Weather for week of April 1, 1999 from WeatherUnderground
Wet and cold weather is still showing up in the forecasts and models for April 1, 2010. The amount continues to vary (0.25-0.75 inches of water), but it also appears that it could usher in a wet period for several days.
So, I did some looking back in the history. I think the April Fool’s Day Storm I was thinking of was in 1999. Here is how the week went:
Date Precipitation March 31 Wednesday 0.05 inches April 1 Thursday 0.64 inches April 2 Friday 0.26 inches April 3 Saturday 0.14 inches April 4 Sunday 0.64 inches
That a total of 1.73 inches of water. I couldn’t find the snowfall amounts, but the temperatures were recorded in the high 20′s during this time. So, it must have fallen as snow. I think I remember a report of 42 inches at Hart Prairie for this storm.
Here is how the next 6-10 days looks from the Climate Prediction Center:
6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
Whoa, all of a sudden a 40% chance of snow popped into Friday’s forecast. I can almost guarantee I will see travel inhibiting snow on Friday. But, I can’t believe it will be in Flagstaff. The latest long range picture, 8-14 days, from the Climate Prediction Center could include an April Fool’s Day Storm.
8-14 day Precipitation Outlook - Climate Prediction Center
Could we be looking at an April Fool’s Day Storm? This morning’s GFS model is showing a strong storm around that time period. It has been coming in and out of the models for quite a while.
I remember buying a truck on the evening of March 31. Without warning, it started to snow. It had been warm and nice. We had thought to spend the upcoming Easter Weekend on Lake Powell. We got a little snow that afternoon and evening. But, overnight it really let loose. And did so for the next few days with a whopping 42 inches of snow. Needless to say, we stayed home and shoveled.
Here is the GFS model for April Fool’s Day 2010:
April Fool's Day 2010 - GFS 24 hour Precipitation Forecast
Although a little weak storm is coming through this week, we won’t see much precipitation until potentially next week. Temperatures will be vacillating between a little above and a little below normal.
Check this modified graphic out:
Frequency of Significant storms
The blue arrows show our major storm events since the big January event. They have been remarkably regular hitting every 15days. The last storm was on 9-10 March. So, we should be in line for another event this next week on 24-25 March. There is a chance in the forecast right now, but the precipitation keeps coming and going from the models and forecasts. Another event looks possible for Easter Weekend. We’ll see as things firm up.
Here is the winter temperature summary from the National Climatic Data Center:
Winter Temperatures 2009-2010
Keep in mind this doesn’t include offsets for things like Urban Heat Island(UHI) effect. Many believe that UHI will prevent many locations from ever breaking record lows. But, the low temperatures certainly explain why the snow is still around. And, how Flagstaff managed to break the record for longest time period with more than 8 inches of snow on the ground.
With the fairly strong El Nino, we were able to collect the precipitation in the first place:
Winter 2010 Precipitation
We only got wind last night. As nice as yesterday was, it was quite breezy and a few degrees below normal. Still, the sun gave use a good meltdown.
Today through Wednesday should be quite nice. Clear skies, near to slightly above normal temps. Ahhhh!
If one were planning to drive to Telluride and ski for a few days, they would expect similar conditions, except that the drive would be a little snowy along the way, with lots of wind. Again, sunny seasonable weather would be expected to follow.
Once again, the nice weather is just around the corner. Next week should be mostly nice, sunny and warm. But, we have one more small storm that is going to try and make it to Northern Arizona on Saturday Night and Sunday. It will bring only small amounts of precipitation with a high snow level, compared to recent storms.
On the topic of snow fall this year, this chart speaks for itself:
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