Many of you probably saw this article in the Arizona Daily Sun:
King of the hill: Flagstaff atop snowfall total so far
The national news media is picking up on this article. We are the snowist city in the country. Even the battered East Coast cities are well behind us.
Well, this morning we stand at a season total of 120.7 inches. We have crossed the 10 foot mark. The average annual snowfall for all years recorded is just over 7 feet (86 inches). There have been years that were much snowier. But, keep in mind that March is typically the snowiest month. The monthly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for a wet month.
30 day Precipitation Outlook - Climate Prediction Center
It’s been a fairly dry month. No, I am not crazy in this belief. December and January were quite strong, but February is still about half an inch below normal. I think this weekend will see us picking that up. This is roughly the amount shown on the NOAA Graphical Forecast.
Most are forecasting somewhere between 3 and7 inches of snow. Personally, I think that those forecasts may be on the low side. I will go out on a limb and say, as of Friday morning, we could be looking at 8-12 inches. I will update my number tomorrow.
It’s been a cold month, as I mentioned yesterday. Even though it was quite sunny, the temperatures rarely climbed very high.
Monthly Summary from Weather Underground (wunderground.com)
So far, Flagstaff is about a half inch below normal precipitated water. I think this weekend’s storm stand a good chance of making up the deficit. I think Accuweather was the most accurate with the last storm. They are forecasting just over 7 inches. There is still some inconsistency in the outlook.
The below-normal temperature trend should continue.
From National Weather Service WINTER STORM WATCH
FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WINTER STORM WARNING Issued 330pm Sunday.
But, when is the weather ever fair. The precipitation models continue to shift around, but seem to be aligning for 12-24 inch snow accumulations for parts of the Northland between now and Monday night. Accuweather is sticking to a meager 7.5 inches. Wunderground has 15-23 inches in their forecast. Foxnews just said 1-3 feet across the 4-Corners area. For my house, the National Weather Service Point Forecast shows 7-16 inches. For the airport, they show 9-17 inches. As I said, the models keep shifting.
Here is a good post from Friday by Ken Clark at Accuweather.com: Model Mayhem Equals Changing Forecasts. If it makes you feel better, next weekend should bring a repeat.
330 PM MST SUN FEB 21 2010
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
MST MONDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST MONDAY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 5000 FT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: A STRONG WINTER STORM IS MOVING INTO ARIZONA FROM THE
NORTH AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4
TO 8 INCHES BETWEEN 5000 TO 6000 FT AND 8 TO 14 INCHES ABOVE
6000 FT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
631 AM MST SUN FEB 21 2010
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET...
* TIMING: THE SECOND PART OF THIS WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BEGINNING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET...8 TO 16 INCHES FROM 6000
FEET TO 7000 FEET WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
MOGOLLON RIM...WITH 12 TO 24 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE .
The last few weeks have been very nice. Given how cold the rest of the winter has been, I thought for sure we had been through a real warming trend that included above average temperatures. Well, I was wrong. So far, February is 2.1 degrees F below average. One day the official high was 51F. That’s nice. The low had been 8F. That’s cold!
Here is an update on our temps since October. February has brought a couple peaks, but overall a below average temperature month. So, as we face more snow, the storm Sunday night through Monday morning may bring 8-12 inches by itself, and cooler temperatures, it looks doubtful February will be the month we climb back above normal.
Average Daily Temperatures October 2009 - mid-February 2010
Update: It looks like the North American Mesoscale Model is trending toward a persistent daily snow for Saturday to at least Monday. Each day could see 1-4 inches with the possibility of 6 inches in some 24 hour periods. The GFS Model is showing similar effects. Here are the previous 60hr precipitation totals ending noon time, Monday. Both show us comfortably in the 0.75-1.0 inch range for precipitated water, potentially 8-12 inches of snow for roughly 3 days.
North American Mesoscale Precipitation Model - 60hrs ending lunchtime Monday
GFS Precipitation Model - 60hrs ending lunchtime Monday
The Climate Prediction Center issued this update for the month of March today. It looks to be wet with near normal temperatures for Northern Arizona.
March Precipitation Outlook - Climate Prediction Center
While the next 7 days looks to have some moderate levels of moisture, the last weekend of February and the first week of March could have a couple heavy hitting storms.
I’m stocking up on wood this weekend.
We knew it wouldn’t last.
While the intensity of the next two weeks isn’t universally agreed upon, the fact that the storm track is shifting back to us is pretty clear. There should be a cooling trend through the weekend, with a small storm included. I think we will see about 3 inches over the weekend. It gets fuzzy beyond that.
Maybe as much as 6 inches of snow next Tuesday. Maybe a repeat on next Thursday. The last weekend of the month may bring 10-15 inches of snow. The temperatures should be generally cooler than what we have recently experienced.
Or, you can go with the Farmer’s Almanac:
Feb 18-22: Showers, then flurries, colder; Feb 23-25: Sunny, cold; Feb 26-28: Flurries, seasonable.
Sounds pretty benign, but I’m not buying it today.
Enjoying the warm weather? Don’t worry, it’s not unusual.
ClimateGate Scientist Admits No Warming in 15 years - Daily Mail
In the aftermath of ClimateGate, the truth is emerging. Phil Jones, from the Hadley Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University, is one of the biggest drivers of Anthropogenic Global Warming (Human Caused Global Warming) theory. Someone, many believe a whistleblower from inside, release his much sought after computer code, databases and emails. These reveal a large scale effort to abandon science in favor of a doctrine that generates millions in research dollars. With the facts becoming clearer by the day, Professor Jones is changing his tune. Please, read this article from the UK’s Daily Mail:
Climategate U-turn as scientist at centre of row admits: There has been no global warming since 1995
Looks like this Thursday will see the first signs of the storm track shifting to the south. The last week of February could see us facing extreme snow again. The models have been pretty stable in projecting it at this point. We’ll see. It’s a long way out.
The Weather Story picture from the National Weather Service – Flagstaff changed on Saturday morning. I sent an email to try and find out what is real. Here is the updated picture:
UPDATE: 2-14-10 Both graphics were correct. The one on Saturday was greater than or equal to 1 inch. Friday’s graph was greater than 1 inch. Thanks to the National Weather Service for their quick reply.
Corrected Flagstaff Snowcoverage??? - National Weather Service Flagstaff
Here is an interesting tidbit from the National Weather Service. Snow cover in Flagstaff is tied for second place for longest llive 1 inch or greater snow depth. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next week as the Eastern United States goes into the deep freeze, and we bask in the sun with above normal temperatures.
Flagstaff Snow Coverage Longevity Records - NWS Flagstaff
