While it continues to snows, here is an update from the National Weather Service. The radar estimate that I had hoped to publish was so inaccurate, it isn’t worth it. Reports of chest deep snow abound. Still, another 10-20 inches is predicted for Flagstaff today. And, there is another storm, albeit nothing by comparison, due on Tuesday night…and next weekend. The storm door may be open for a while.

Month to date, Flagstaff has had over 4 and a half inches of precipitation, nearly 3 times normal, roughly 38 inches of snow, nearly 3 times normal. Yesterday was a record breaking 19.6 official inches of snow, for another record breaking 3.39 inches of water.

NOUS45 KFGZ 221629
 PNSFGZ

 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 925 AM MST FRI JAN 22 2010

 ...A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT NEAR RECORD RAIN...SNOW...AND
 FLOODING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
 FRIDAY...

 A VERY SEVERE WINTER STORM MOVED INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STORM FOLLOWED
 DIRECTLY AFTER TWO OTHER STRONG WINTER STORMS EARLIER IN THE WORK
 WEEK.

 HEAVY SNOW BEGAN WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AT
 UNUSUALLY LOW ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM IN YAVAPAI AND
 GILA COUNTIES.

 SNOW LEVELS ROSE RAPIDLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOVE 7000 FEET.
 DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPED FROM THE
 MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCED SEVERE FLOODING A FEW LOCATIONS.

 A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
 NIGHT...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN TO 4000 TO 4500 FEET. VERY
 STRONG WINDS OCCURRED WITH THE COLD FRONT CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
 BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND COMPLICATING THE DIRECT
 MEASUREMENT OF SNOWFALL.

 BELOW ARE SOME RAIN...SNOW...AND WIND REPORTS FROM THIS STORM.

 WE ARE CONTINUING TO COLLECT SNOW AND RAIN TOTALS...AN UPDATED LIST
 WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
 MOGOLLON RIM...CONSIDERABLE SNOW FELL ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
 PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANGED BACK TO
 SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

 FLAGSTAFF AREA SNOW REPORTS...SINCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

 DONEY PARK (EAST FLAG)    30 TO 35 INCHES (9 AM MST)
 BELLEMONT NWS OFFICE      27 INCHES (5 AM MST)
 FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT         28 INCHES (5 AM MST)
 FLAGSTAFF AREA SPOTTERS   25 TO 35 INCHES (9 AM MST)
 12 MILES N. PARKS         28 INCHES (7 AM MST)

 REPORTS FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:

 MCNARY 2N                 17 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 JACOB LAKE                12 TO 16 INCHES (9 AM MST)
 SHOW LOW                  15 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 HEBER                     12 TO 13 INCHES (9 AM MST)
 FLAGSTAFF AREA            10 TO 12 INCHES (8 AM MST)
 MUNDS PARK                9 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 CHINO VALLEY              6.5 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 CONCHO                    6 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 PAYSON                    3.0 TO 5.5 INCHES (7 AM MST)
 WEST PRESCOTT             4 INCHES (9 AM MST)
 BLACK MESA (WHITEGRASS)   3 INCHES (9 AM MST)

 STORM SYSTEM TOTALS SINCE MONDAY EVENING ON THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM
 CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 INCHES. 

 STORM PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR MELTED SNOW) SINCE WEDNESDAY TOTALS:

 WET BOTTOM CREEK NEAR CHILDS 10.03 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 CHERRY CREEK NEAR GLOBE       8.06 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 CROWN KING                    7.63 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 SUNSET POINT                  7.61 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 TONTO CREEK FISH HATCHERY     6.01 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 OAK CREEK CANYON              5.62 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 PLEASANT VALLEY               4.17 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 SEDONA AIRPORT                4.11 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 PAYSON                        4.03 TO 5.3 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 MUNDS PARK                    3.70 INCHES (900 AM MST)
 BAGDAD                        3.50 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 HAPPY JACK                    3.59 TO 4.1 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 IRON SPRINGS                  3.31 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT             2.89 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 MORMON LAKE                   2.41 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 SKULL VALLEY                  2.35 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 PRESCOTT                      2.27 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 WINDOW ROCK                   1.98 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 WINSLOW                       1.34 INCHES (500 AM MST)
 PAGE                          0.88 INCHES (500 AM MST)

The assumptions have to change. At this point, yesterday’s trivia question is invalid. The flight was cancelled and replaced. The current assumption is that the driver will leave at 5pm from Phoenix, Sky Harbor Airport.

Things have calmed down this morning, but there is an on-going chance for more snow. Hopefully, just a few inches will fall so people can catch up. I’ll try to post a picture of radar estimated precipitation later this morning.

Where to begin today? I will probably make a couple posts today.

The Main Event is still on track for tomorrow. The biggest worry seems to be around the possibility of some rain in the middle of the heavy snow.

First, earlier this week, I asked the Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center if they could provide a comment on avalanche concerns after such a heavy snow this week. They have some great education materials on their site. They put me in touch with the Search and Rescue Unit at the Coconino County Sheriff’s Office. Here is a link to their statement about avalanche hazards that they released on Tuesday:

Avalanche Hazard January 19, 2010

If you go into the back country, or if you are just curious, take look.

3-4 Inches of water is on tap for Flagstaff for Thursday and Friday. How is comes is tricky. A band of warm air is going to try to move through on Thursday afternoon-evening. Still, I think we are looking at 3-4 feet of snow for Friday. More on this tonight and tomorrow morning.

Hopefully, the weekend will allow for a good dig-out. I’ve got my snow rake ready to go for my roof. Again, please let me know about your snow reports.