2009 December » Stu's Weather

Start of January to be Warmer

Climate, Models, Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Dec 302009

December continues to be very cold. This won’t change this week. But, after another possible small storm early next week, we are in for a warming trend. But, only in the West. We should see temperatures reaching and surpassing the 50 degree F mark through the first half of January. The storm door will probably slam shut for a while as well.

The rest of the country, and possible most of the Northern Hemisphere is in for a very cold time. Here is a quote from Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com:

What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.

The quote is underneath the post on CO2. The Eastern US didn’t see a warm fall, either. There seems to be wide agreement that this is the early January model. Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

6-10 Temperature Outlook for Jan. 4-8, 2010

This is due to strong negative Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. Both work together to bring colder temperatures to the Eastern United States and much of Northern Europe. The dominating factor currently is very strong high pressure over the Artic Ocean. Their effects are remarkably similar.

Here is a good single-page graphic on the Arctic Oscillation: Arctic Oscillation (PDF at Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean).

Here is a link to a discussion about North Atlantic Oscillation: North Atlantic Oscillation (at Columbia University)

Finally, both the Artic and the North Atlantic Oscillations are forecasted to remain strongly negative for the next few weeks.

Arctic Oscillation Outlook

North Atlantic Oscillation Outlook

December Continues to Look Very Cold

Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer, Winter Storms Comments Off

Dec 282009

My weather station registered a low of 1.9F this morning. It looks like everyday since Christmas Eve has had a low in the single digits and a we haven’t had a high above 43F. Brrrrr…. Well, as some of you know I was basking in tropical sun with temperatures that rarely strayed from 80F. Ahhhh….

Looks like we are in for a little touch of snow the next couple days. But, perhaps more importantly, we are not going to see much change in temperatures until well after the first of the New Year. The next couple days might see higher overnight lows, in the teens, due to the clouds with the approaching waves between today and Wednesday. No single event will bring very much moisture.

After the snow, we are going back into the deep freeze with single digit temps. The Shark Oil Barometer is cloudy with big chunks making up the “Cloudiness.” Seems like chunks, versus hazy cloudiness might be more indicative of an approaching storm.

Snow Isn't the Real Story

Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Winter Storms Comments Off

Dec 222009

I think the real story is the cold of this December. As we look forward to single digit lows on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the monthly average temperature is going to drop further. As you can see below, the daily high temperatures have rarely been around normal, while the daily lows have been nearly always at or below normal. Brrrrrr! We are at nearly double the normal monthly precipitation to date. The storm door is opening for the next week or so, but amounts should be manageable.

Don’t worry, the new year will bring balmy highs that will elevate Flagstaff into the 40′s, with toasty nights in the teens.

Monthly Data - Flagstaff Airport

Continued Cold

Climate, Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer Comments Off

Dec 182009

Looks like we are on the hook for cold nights and sunny days for a while. There is a small chance of snow next week, but it looks to be very small. There doesn’t look to be any break in site for the overnight temperatures being so cold. Still, the shark oil barometer never really changes back to clear after that last snow storm.

The bigger picture looks for a return to a southerly storm track over the next few weeks. That could continue for a while. Check out the 3 month outlook that was just updated by the Climate Prediction Center. This is what many would call the typical winter pattern for El Nino winters.

3-Month Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

I will be less available over the next week as Christmas activities move in and take over. I am going to try to add some more mobile software to support blackberries and a whole new look to the site. It should be cleaner and more compact. Or, at least those are on my Christmas break list. If I get really aggressive, I will try to get a new algorithm going for calculating moon rise, set and phase for the main page.

IPCC Hockey Stick Versus Ice Core Data

Climate, Models Comments Off

Dec 142009

Climategate is strongly related to the IPCC reports. Specifically, the concerns around the code and the emails that were released are about the invention of the “hockey stick” of increasing temperatures. Even if the hockey stick were real, here is a look at how it compares to historic ice core data. The hockey stick seems large when taken with a limited view. But, with a scientific, historical perspective, it disappears.

Climategate on CNN

Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Dec 132009

Here is an interesting debate between skeptics and supports of Human Caused Global Warming on Climategate.

More Snow on the Way

Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer, Winter Storms Comments Off

Dec 122009

This seems odd to me. Most of the Moisture seemed to disappear from the models over last night and this morning. There is still some, but I am not sure about the upper ranges being predicted.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY.

* TIMING…SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING…BECOMING STEADY SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* WINDS…SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF TRAVELING…TAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES…INCLUDING WINTER
CLOTHING…FOOD…WATER…AND A FLASHLIGHT. FOR THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS…CHECK THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT
WWW.AZ511.COM. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

Climategate Snapshot

Climate Comments Off

Dec 122009

You would think that it is a pretty straight-forward process to analyze global temperatures and decide if the planet is warming and by how much. Well, it’s not easy at all. One of the problems that is being realized with Climategate is how temperature measurements were altered. There are reasonable, scientific explanations for modifying data, such as changes to weather station equipment without continuity with overlap between equipment sets.

Here is post that looks at how the station data for Australia was modified. It gives a nice background and then a review of the process used to demonstrate warming. You decide if you think an appropriate, or bias approach was used.

The Smoking Gun At Darwin Zero – wattsupwiththat.com

Darwin Zero Homogeneity Adjustments. Black line shows amount and timing of adjustments.

Shark Oil Barometer and This Weekend

Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer, Winter Storms Comments Off

Dec 112009

I have a specific request on what the Shark Oil Barometer has been indicating. It has been countinuously cloudy for the last week and a half, or so. I think the real test we have in the offing is whether is clears some after this coming weekend. The models are showing drier conditions after this weekend, and well into the holidays.

Hopefully, this weekend will bring enough snow for a holiday opening for Snowbowl. There is a good bit of variability in the models. The National Weather Service has been dead-on lately (Hat-Tip to them!). They are calling for an inch or two today and tomorrow, and 2-4″ with the weather system on Sunday.

The NOGAPS forecast is more aggressive with something in more of the 6-8 or 8-12 inch ranges for Sunday. It has varied between runs. See Picture below. Either way, I am going to try to get my snowblower back online!

One final note on Monday’s snow:

Statement as of 1:30 am MST on December 11, 2009

 ... Record snowfall for Flagstaff Airport on Dec 7 2009...

City (period of record) new record previous record/year

Flagstaff Airport (1898-2009) 20.1 inches 5.0 inches 1956

The Flagstaff Airport reported 20.1 inches of snowfall from midnight

to midnight on December 7th 2009. This was over four times the

previous record of 5.0 inches set in 1956. This also ties the

record for the 8th snowiest calendar day also set on February 24th

1987. The last time that it snowed more than 20.1 inches in one day

was februaray 24th 1987 when it snowed 21.1 inches.

These records are preliminary pending official reports.

Navy NOGAPS Precipitation Forecast for Sunday, 12-13-09

One for the Record Books

Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms Comments Off

Dec 082009

I think it is important to note that we truly have very limited climate records for Flagstaff. Yesterday was a huge snow day, but the previous record for snow fall on December 7 was only 5 inches in 1956. It’s hard to know what is statistically normal weather for Flagstaff. We know a snowfall like this is possible at this time of year. But, how often might it occur.

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.74          1.58 2007   0.06   0.68     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    0.75                      0.42   0.33     0.00
  SINCE SEP 1      2.61                      6.33  -3.72     2.19
  SINCE JAN 1      9.55                     21.50 -11.95    14.68

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       20.1 R         5.0  1956   0.4   19.7      0.0
  MONTH TO DATE   20.1                       3.3   16.8      0.0
  SINCE SEP 1     24.0                      20.2    3.8      2.5
  SINCE JUL 1     24.0                      20.2    3.8      2.5
  SNOW DEPTH      19

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Start of January to be Warmer

December Continues to Look Very Cold

Snow Isn't the Real Story

Continued Cold

IPCC Hockey Stick Versus Ice Core Data

Climategate on CNN

More Snow on the Way

Climategate Snapshot

Shark Oil Barometer and This Weekend

One for the Record Books

Shark Oil Barometer

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