While there were a couple new high low temperature (warmest low temperature) records this week, there were many record low temperatures set. Here is a picture and link to HAMWeather:
Southwestern US - New Records, October 24 - October 31, 2009
Here is a list of record from the National Weather Service. Some of the records were tied or only fell by a degree or two. Some, like Phantom Ranch, 10 degrees, and Springerville, 15 degrees, dropped by large amounts. I recorded a low of about 10 degrees on Thursday. Somehow, the Flagstaff Airport stayed relatively warmer at 19 degrees. Other personal sites reported similar results to both of these.
...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON OCT 28 2009...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
FLAGSTAFF (1898 - 2009) 32 35 IN 1996
FORT VALLEY (1909 - 2009) 31 32 IN 1972
GRAND CANYON NP S RIM (1966 - 2009) 36 37 IN 1989
GREER (1905 - 2009) 27 35 IN 1991
HEBER RS (1950 - 2009) 31 36 IN 1976
PAGE (1958 - 2009) 42 48 IN 1996
PHANTOM RANCH (1966 - 2009) 48 58 IN 2000
PRESCOTT (1898 - 2009) 38 46 IN 1996
WILLIAMS (1897 - 2009) 30 39 IN 1996
WINSLOW (1893 - 2009) 43 47 IN 1991
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON OCT 28 2009...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
NAVAJO NM (1939 - 2009) 16 19 IN 1970
PHANTOM RANCH (1966 - 2009) 41 41 (TIED) IN 1970
...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON OCT 29 2009...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
ALPINE (1904 - 2009) 25 42 IN 1961
COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2009) 56 58 IN 1991
FORT VALLEY (1909 - 2009) 34 34 (TIED) IN 1974
HEBER RS (1950 - 2009) 34 42 IN 1974
NAVAJO NM (1939 - 2009) 30 32 IN 1991
PAYSON (1948 - 2009) 46 47 IN 1974
SPRINGERVILLE (1911 - 2009) 29 44 IN 1996
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON OCT 29 2009...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
PAYSON (1948 - 2009) 20 22 IN 1991
SEDONA (1943 - 2009) 22 29 IN 1970
...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON OCT 29 2009..
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW LOW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2009) 56 58 IN 1991
FORT VALLEY (1909 - 2009) 34 34 (TIED) IN 1974
MCNARY 2N (1920 - 2009) 32 34 IN 1942
Yes, there was snow. I was able to count the flakes on the windshield of my car this morning. But, the storm formed to the south and east of Flagstaff. There is still a chance for snow this afternoon as moisture wraps around from the north and east of the storm.Still, I think measurable precipitation would be a lot for this storm. We may have showers, but doubt it will be troublesome. Some are still calling for an inch of snow today.
We did have significant cooling, though. Yesterday morning at 6am the temperature was about 39F. This morning at 6am, the temperature was about 20F. That’s a change of 19F. It is a strong storm, with the barometric pressure dropping below 1000mbar. The next two nights are going to be very cold with lows in the teens. Tonight’s standing record low is 13F
24 hour Temperature Change - Switzer Canyon
To me it looks like this storm is going to place most of the precipitation to the east of Flagstaff. We may get some snow, but I think 2 inches would be on the high side. It will be cold and windy. Here is a very dramatic picture from the National Weather Service.
That looks like all that this week is promising at this point. I think we could see a little bit of snow in a first taste of winter, but I would be surprised if we get more than a couple inches. The forecasting models seem to be in agreement, but they are shifting. Unfortunately, I think the storm will form to the east of use and move out quickly. This has been the recent standard.
Snow?
This guy Peterson, from the National Weather Service, is usually pretty darn good when it comes to predicting snow. Here is what he has to say this morning:
By Tuesday...a stronger shortwave will move into the Great Basin and will
usher in some high clouds...and windy conditions. This is where the
disagreement begins among the models. Most models...except the
GFS...drop the wave into Arizona with very cold conditions...and
areas of rain and snow through Thursday. The GFS stays quite
progressive...with windy and colder conditions arriving...but
virtually no precipitation. The GFS then defers to a stronger
Halloween storm...while the other models go zonal. These are
significant differences...and the jury remains out on this one. For
now...we have split the difference...but have not jumped on board
with any particular solution...stay tuned.
Public.................Peterson
I am looking at the GFS and NOGAPS models this morning. They agree for the next 6 days with their midnight runs. NOGAPS doesn’t show the big Halloween precip potential. It very large on GFS midnight run. The Halloween storm disappeared in the 6am GFS run. The difference between the midnight and 6 am models is pretty interesting, so they are below. AccuWeather has added it to their forecasts this morning. I think the only thing for sure is that it will get cold.
GFS Model Forecast for Halloween. Model run at midnight 10-23
GFS Model Forecast for Halloween. Model run at 6am 10-24
Looks like the middle of next week will be cold. Some are putting in a slight chance of snow. A look at the GFS model is starting to show the longer term storm track moving to the south. You can see it animated here: GFS Model.
The NOGAPS model isn’t showing any precipitation for next week. But, it does show a sharp dip in temperatures in the middle of the week.
Are you ready for winter?
It doesn’t seem like there is a very solid chance for significant precip today. We should be west of the line where the showers will form. But, if that line starts farther to the west, we could have a nice rain.
Looks like the storm track is going to continue to be mostly to the north for the next week or so. We will get wind and some clouds with each passing system. Temperatures should stay moderate.
Record Cold
That picture tells the story. Read a related blog posting on wattsupwiththat.com.
If you want to believe the Government, it look like Flagstaff will get left out of the heavy duty winter this year. This is a significant difference between the AccuWeather forecast I mentioned in my last post and NOAA.
Notice how the AccuWeather outlook specifically includes Northern Arizona’s Mountains. The green NOAA 33% above average risk of precipitation band appears to fall south of Phoenix. This has been their Dec-Jan-Feb outlook for Arizona for a while. The big background discussion is around whether El Nino Strengthens or weakens. NOAA insists on strengthening. Just about everyone else sees it already weakening an falling apart.
AccuWeather’s Joe Bastardi points to the winter of 2002-2003. This wouldn’t seem to match a heavy winter snow forecast. The winter of 2002-2003 yielded below average snowfall for Arizona. According to the National Weather Service, we received only 54.9 inches of snow that winter, roughly half of their 109 inch average. Other stations in Northern Arizona had similar dry conditions for that time. However, I think I remember the winter that year having the southerly storm track, but the cooler local Pacific waters, off the California and Baja Penisula coasts, prevented moisture delivery. That doesn’t appear to be the case for now. Time will tell.
Temperatures are headed down from yesterday through the week. They should move to more of an average range. Highs in the low 60′s, lows in the low 30′s. Plenty of sunshine.
NOAA Winter Outlook 2009-2010
AccuWeather Outlook Winter 2009-2010
The current storm track is continuing to hold well to the north. So, we get these occasional windy, mostly cloudy episodes. Not much seems to be changing for now. The northern Pacific has cooled considerably to slightly below normal levels. The California and Baja Coastal waters are above normal and it looks like most of the cold patches are gone. Hopefully, this will eventually allow the coastal high pressure to weaken and open a more southern storm track.
If you bought a ski pass, you will love AccuWeather’s winter outlook. It is matching the National Weather Service outlook I have previously discussed. But, they differ on the course of El Nino. Sounds like bone chilling cold, and piles of snow!
Bastardi Says Core of Winter from D.C. to Charlotte
