Temperatures all around Flagstaff are in the middle to upper 50′s this morning. Enjoy it. It’s going to get windy! As a cold Pacific storm roles into town. There won’t be much of a temperature gain today and temperatures should dive into the 30′s tonight. Thursday could bring a hard freeze with temps dipping into the 20′s. Brrrrrr!

Another storm is looking to move through at the end of the weekend, or early next week.  It might bring some light showers.

My Navy NOGAPS page is working. They have changed their images to a more pleasing background. But, it is next to impossible to read the dates. I will work on that this weekend

Well, except for August, cool weather has been overforecasted for us. A cool Pacific storm is due to move through the area over the next few days. It should bring mostly wind, but there is an increasing chance of some precipitation. The NOGAPS model is showing rain on Wednesday, but in very low, fleeting amounts. Another low is looking to build during the weekend and move toward Arizona early next week.

Will it really get cold this time? The storm, a low pressure system, is coming from the northwest. The last forecasted cold was from a high pressure system moving in from the northest. So, it is a much different situation. Fall could be here. Enjoy the last day of Indian Summer, today.

Personally, I think the Flagstaff Airport data is probably tainted by the continuous development over time. The runway was recently lengthed. Additional buildings are constantly going into the area. More parking was added in the late 90s or early 2000′s. All of it can change the heat signal. None the less, here is an interesting graphic from the National Weather Service at Flagstaff. If you dig deeper into what happened over the summer, the story may have been vastly different for you.

Record Flagstaff Growing Season

Record Flagstaff Growing Season

Many locations had a much shorter season because of two cold spells. First, June 12 was chilly. The airport reported 33 degrees. A Wunderground reporting station, KAZFLAGS22, reported a low of 31.1 degrees. The Grand Canyon reported 32 degrees. Fort Valley reported a low of 27 degrees. This goes to show what the local variability can do.

Second August 8 was a shocker. The airport reported a low of 35 degrees. Many people reported losing some of their gardens on this day. Granted, KAZFLAGS22 reported a low of 34.9 degrees. The Grand Canyon slipped below freezing on August 8. Again, Fort Valley reported a low of about 27 degrees

So, if you don’t live at the airport, your growing season may have been from June 12 to August 8. A mere 57 days and a potential record breaker in the opposite direction. Many efforts are underway to document the effects of local environmental change on temperature records, such as surfacestations.org. I hope you had the long growing season, it was a beautiful summer

Well, I believed this weeks forecasts of cold overnight temps. Instead we had quite a nice week of warm, comfortable days. This weekend will be beautiful. Get out and enjoy it. Might be a good time to harvest the remainder of the garden if we can believe what all of the forecast outlets are saying. Somewhere near the middle of next week, summer should end and fall should move into full swing as a cold system moves through Arizona. Highs may not leave the 50′s. I doubt we will see any precipitation with it.

For some reason, the Shark Oil Barometer is cloudy this morning:

Shark Oil Barometer - 9-25-09

Shark Oil Barometer - 9-25-09

Apparently, the winds overnight inhibited the cooling effect(radiational?) that would have come with the clear skies. The winds should keep going today. Tonight is another chance for a freeze is the winds abate overnight.

Hard to believe that controlled burns are a good idea with the dewpoint in the teens and the winds gusting to 30 miles per hour. Here is the prescribed burn map for Arizona and New Mexico:

Arizona & New Mexico Prescribed Burns

So, I have alluded to questions over the future of the current El Nino. There are two seriously differing camps. Unfortunately, it is falling along the hard core lines of human caused global warming(HCGW) believers and those that question human caused global warming. Jim Hansen, of NASA, is committed to Human Caused Global Warming. Given the significant cooling that has occurred since roughly 2001, he needs a big win, like another 1997-1998 Super El Nino.

As I mentioned over the weekend, a moderate El Nino is in place, with some holes. Those that question HCGW are pointing out that the future of this El Nino appears to be weaker with an early demise. Compared to the Super El Nino, the differences are large. Here is an excellent blog I recommend you read:  JPL’s Patzert: “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists”

Neither camp did great with the summer prediction, other than the questioners favoring a cool summer in the Eastern US. Time will tell.

I think this winter will be similar to the last few. If we have heavy snow fall, it will stick around for a long time. We will probably end up with average snowfall, overall. The sun will recover some, but will not return to the intensity of the last couple cycles. Those are my thoughts.

One last note; did you notice there is now more sea ice area in the Artic than this date in 2005?

For some in the area, gardens struggle through early August. But for most of Flagstaff we are just now in the middle of the time when the mercury could dip below 32 degrees F. This week is going to bring chilly temperatures. If you live in one of the colder areas, you could see a frost or freeze.

Freezing & Growing Season - NWS Flagstaff

Freezing & Growing Season - NWS Flagstaff

Here is another look at temperature probabilities for the Airport in Flagstaff:

First Freeze Probablity - Flagstaff

First Freeze Probablity - Flagstaff

But notice what happens just up the road at Fort Valley:

First Freeze Probabilities - Fort Valley

First Freeze Probability - Fort Valley

Notice the curves are steeper and earlier. Take care and watch the forecast for the next few days if you want your garden to last a little longer.

LOOK OUT FOR LOW TEMPS FROM MONDAY-THURSDAY – Possibility for freezing.

Look what popped up on the Climate Prediction Center website. They are forcasting above average precipitation chances for the month of October.

October Precipitation Outlook from Climate Prediction Center

October Precipitation Outlook from Climate Prediction Center

While not directly related in their discussion, the sea surface temperatures to the south and west of us are mostly, slightly elevated, along with a weak to moderate El Nino underway, could provide the moisture flow which we have awaited all summer. Unfortunately, there are are small bands of cooler water cropping up in the nearby waters. Here is the Climate Prediction Center’s animation of the whole Pacific sea surface temperatures. In the past, cold bands of water have been very effective blockers of the moisture flow. We will see. Hopefully, the warmer waters will help breakdown the persistent high pressure in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and allow storms to flow over us.

Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies - Climate Prediction Center

Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies - Climate Prediction Center

For the first time in months, the Shark Oil Barometer turned cloudy yesterday. It’s not as cloudy today. This is just another signal for the move to the winter storm patterns. Recently, the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of California and Mexico has warmed. At the same time, farther south near the equator, a weak El Nino is underway. I think both of these situations would enhance out precipitation outlook. The question is whether El Nino will hold, or not. More this weekend.

Shark Oil Barometer

Shark Oil Barometer

Maybe not everyone, but some folks seemed to notice that August was cold, especially when the mercury feel through the floor in early August. But, when NOAA reported the monthly average temperature ranks for the month, August 2009 was the 96th coolest August out of the last 115 years.

August Average Temperature Ranks by State

August Average Temperature Ranks by State

Much of the nation was well below normal for August. In fact, it was the 34th coolest August in the last 115 years. But, wait…It felt cool in August, and most of the summer for that matter. When you consider the recent history, maybe it makes more sense.

Average August Temperatures 1895-2009

Average August Temperatures 1895-2009

Or not. As a state, temps look pretty average compared to the last 15 years. But what about Flagstaff?

Flagstaff Average Temperature Departure From Normal - August 2009

Flagstaff Average Temperature Departure From Normal - August 2009

So, there were some very chilly days, especially August 7-10. This included record lows on August 8 and 9. Overall, the month finished 0.4 degrees above normal. The lack of clouds also allowed higher highs and lower lows than would have been the case in a normal monsoon season. This August and the summer was very dry. The 4th driest August in the last 115 years.

August Precipitation Ranks

August Precipitation Ranks

Unfortunately, this winter may not yield much improvement in moisture. More on that later.

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