Jimena is now a Category 4 Hurricane of the Pacific Coast of Mexico. It has sustained winds in of 155 mph. The question for us is whether it will bring moisture to the Northland. The Navy NOGAPS model continues to show stronger impact for Arizona. The GFS model has wandered off to showing little impact to an actual drying trend following the demise of Jimena. However, the National Hurricane Center, AccuWeather and Wunderground all continue to show the storm moving towards Arizona through until the middle of the weekend. There is still plenty of time for the path to change, but we could get seriously caught up on precipitation this weekend.
In the mean time, monsoonal thunderstorms should build through the week.
Hurricane Jimena Forecast Track - Evening 8-31-09
Looks like Hurricane Jimena, now off the extreme southwest coast of Mexico, is currently forecasted to move up the Baja and into Arizona for the Labor Day Weekend. Jimena is forecasted to reach Category 3 this week. This hasn’t shown up in the US Navy NOGAPS forecast until today.It has been in the GFS forecast for a while. Here is an animation of the NOGAPS forecast.
Navy NOGAPS Forecast for Hurricane Jimena (8-30-09)
There are a couple interesting things to note here. First is that if this is real, we would get a lot of rain next weekend. Second is that if you notice at the end of the loop, there is a second storm popping up off in the lower right hand corner, near where Jimena originates. Will this storm play a role a week later?
Historically, this makes sense. We are in a mild El Nino, not nearly as strong as the super-El Nino of 1997-1998. During the El Nino Season of 1997-1998, Hurricane Nora made a similar move. Nora did stay off the coast of Baja, Jimena is forecasted to move almost straight up the Baja. (Keep Reading Below)
Hurricane Nora's Track, 16-26 September, 1997
Jimena Forecast 8-30-09
Hurricanes have a history of occasionally impacting Arizona. This link summarizes their history: Top Hurricane and Tropical Storm Events for Arizona. Tropical Storm Norma in 1970 became know as the Labor Day Storm, killing 23 people.
Hurricane Nora in 1997 had significant precipitation impacts for Arizona. This table is from the National Hurricane Center. Notice the amount for Phoenix was lower when compared to places closer to the hurricane track. Flagstaff received 1.70 inches, the Grand Canyon 2.05 inches. Both amounts are close to a full month of precipitation. It is still about a week out. Things can change greatly.
| Reports of > 3 inches |
|
Selected Sites |
| Harquahala Mtns @5700′, AZ |
11.97 |
|
Idyllwild, CA |
2.86 |
| Yarnell Hill, AZ |
6.26 |
|
Prescott, AZ |
2.37 |
| Harquahala Mountains, AZ |
5.97 |
|
Grand Canyon Nat. Pk., AZ |
2.05 |
| Bagdad, AZ |
5.75 |
|
Blythe, CA |
2.03 |
| Thumb Butte Tank, AZ |
5.75 |
|
Thermal, CA |
1.99 |
| Mayer, AZ |
5.06 |
|
Escondido, CA |
1.84 |
| Crown King, AZ |
4.79 |
|
Mt. Wilson, CA |
1.79 |
| Mt. Laguna, CA |
4.70 |
|
Palm Springs, CA |
1.73 |
| 15 miles W Wickenberg, AZ |
4.53 |
|
Flagstaff, AZ |
1.70 |
| Hualapai Mountain, AZ |
4.50 |
|
Daggett, CA |
1.55 |
| Centennial Wash, AZ |
4.21 |
|
China Lake, CA |
1.49 |
| Tiger Wash Fan, AZ |
4.17 |
|
Imperial Beach, CA |
1.35 |
| Gladden, AZ |
4.02 |
|
Chula Vista, CA |
1.33 |
| Upper Tiger Wash, AZ |
3.82 |
|
Henderson, NV |
1.27 |
| Turtle People, AZ |
3.70 |
|
Kingman Airport, AZ |
1.13 |
| Flores West, AZ |
3.66 |
|
Death Valley (Furnace Ck) |
1.11 |
| Upper Morongo Creek, CA |
3.61 |
|
Organ Pipe Nat. Mon., AZ |
1.11 |
| Yuma Marine Corps NAS |
3.59 |
|
Lake Havasu, AZ |
1.00 |
| Upper Tahquitz Creek, CA |
3.58 |
|
Palmdale, CA |
0.97 |
| Wilhoit, AZ |
3.54 |
|
Imperial, CA |
0.96 |
| Horsethief Basin, AZ |
3.39 |
|
Twenty-Nine Palms, CA |
0.96 |
| Lava Point, UT |
3.30 |
|
San Diego, CA |
0.80 |
| Wickenberg, AZ |
3.25 |
|
San Gabriel, CA |
0.78 |
| Mt. Charleston, NV |
3.25 |
|
Las Vegas (NWS office) |
0.77 |
| Mt. Union, Az |
3.23 |
|
Pasadena, CA |
0.70 |
| Hartman Wash, AZ |
3.19 |
|
Laughlin, NV |
0.60 |
| Sols Tank, AZ |
3.15 |
|
Bullhead City, NV |
0.60 |
| Mid-Martinez Creek, AZ |
3.11 |
|
LA Civic Center, CA |
0.45 |
| Hassy @ Box Canyon, AZ |
3.07 |
|
Long Beach, CA |
0.44 |
| Banning Bench, CA |
3.07 |
|
Tonopah, NV |
0.34 |
| Raywood Flat, CA |
3.07 |
|
Los Angeles (LAX), CA |
0.26 |
|
|
|
Bishop, CA |
0.13 |
|
|
|
Phoenix, AZ |
0.03 |
We are in for a couple days of hotter than average temperatures. Then, the longer term trend looks to be downward with Labor Day Weekend highs in the 60′s with rain possible. Rain, not thunderstorms. Personally, I think we are looking at an early start to our winter weather pattern.
Well, the Climate Prediction Center seems to think so. Their 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks shifted to predicting wetter than normal for both time periods (below). So, I doubted it immediately. Their GFS model, which is repeated on my website, shows significant precipitation for these time periods. Both have been pretty accurate and forecasting dry to near normal chances. In the Prognostic Discussion, they give the 6-10 day model a confidence of 3 on a 1-5 scale, 1 being low confidence, 5 being high. They give the 8-14 day model a 1. So, not real strong.
The Navy NOGAPS model is only out through this coming Sunday, but does show an aggressive amount of rain on that day. Accuweather is not showing an increased chance for these times. Intellicast is showing 30-40% chance of precipitation for next Monday and Tuesday. The week is still early. We will have to see if it holds. It would be a major shift.
Of course, since this covers Labor Day weekend, there is almost a 100% chance of it happening.
8-24-09 6-10day Precipitation Probability - Climate Prediction Center
8-24-09 8-14 day Precipitation Probability - Climate Prediction Center
There is a good chance for rain today. But, the chances will taper back down from here through the week as we return to the same pattern we have seen all summer: A westerly to southwesterly flow from misplaced pressure systems will return. Possibly, by next weekend chances will move upward.
Yesterday’s storms hit some areas in a big way. But, most of Northern Arizona got only a little bit of moisture(see below). It looks like they are wrapping up the Taylor Fire.
Daily Precip for 8-23-09 from Intellicast.com
A couple weeks back we had a great surge of moisture into Northern Arizona. But, it arrived in the form of fairly dense cloud cover. This blocked the sunlight from creating the thermal lift that generates our thunderstorms. The end result was little precipitation for most of the area.
Now, most outlets are forecasting good chances of fairly heavy rain of Flagstaff on Saturday and Sunday. Accuweather is saying up to 0.88″. Unfortunately, this morning’s satellite view has clouds moving into southern Arizona. If this trend persists, the clouds could simply allow us to have a cooler, highs in the low 70′s, humid weekend with little actual precip. We will have to wait and see.
Beyond the weekend, everyone divirges. Some see a monsoonal pattern continuing. Some see a return to clear and dry conditions with a southwest flow from the Pacific.
On a final note, I did get it right yesterday. Flagstaff recorded a record high of 90F. This beat the old record of 88F in 1949.
Overnight the temperatures barely dropped
Temperature and Dewpoint at My Weather Station 24hours prior to 630am, 8-20-09
From about 1030pm until this morning, the temperatures have barely budged. Compared to 49 degrees F a couple days ago, it’s 59 degrees this morning. So, today could be quite warm compared to recent days.
But, this is only a prelude to potentially very wet weather moving in through the weekend. Enjoy it while it lasts!
Taylor Fire Update
By this weekend we should have some moisture back in the area. Hopefully, that will help calm the Taylor fire. Temperatures and winds should remain moderate until then.
Here is an update on the Taylor Fire, burning 22 miles southwest of Flagstaff in the Sycamore Canyon WIlderness area.
The Taylor Fire is burning about 13 miles southwest of Flagstaff. That is the source of the majority of smoke we are seeing. Afternoon winds should be about 15-25 miles per hour out of the south-southwest.
Moisture should build back into the area through the week. If things stay on their current course, we may return to showers and thunderstorms by the weekend.
Seems like the cloudy skies prevent the warming needed to generate convection for thunderstorm formation. Sad, given that so much moisture was available. So, not much fell around most of the Flagstaff area yesterday. If it gets going early today, there is a good chance. If not, another low pressure system is set to blow through and dry us out again. If it doesn’t rain today, it will be the end of next week before we have another shot.
LOOK OUT! It could get cold again this weekend. Watch your gardens at least through Monday night.
