It has been a wet month and the San Fancisco Peaks are white once again (Downtown Webcam can get you a picture). I recorded 0.66 inches of precipitation for a monthly total of 1.99 inches. This includes the snow-like hail that fell. The National Weather Service at the airport reported only 0.36 inches leaving them just short of the 0.46 inch record. This brought them to 2.08 inches for the month which is 1.29 inches, or more than double the normal for the month. The record for May is 4.14 inches. We’ll see what today brings, but we probably won’t be seeing a record month.
The last week’s precip looks like this from radar estimation(from Intellicast):
Radar estimation of precipitation, 5-24-09 to 5-31-09
It should dry out from here forward. There is a chance again today, but not as significant as yesterday. It continues to decline through this week. We should be warming slightly as well. It should be a great week for getting the scooter back out on the road. There is a chance for more rain around the middle of June.
While I was lounging around under 90 feet of water, Flagstaff was enjoying a day of record rainfall. Let’s face it folks, it seems very rare that we have a dry Memorial Day Weekend.
Last Friday, May 22, 2009, was a record rain day for many locations.
Flagstaff 0.78" (record)
Winslow 0.46" (record)
Page 1.83"
Grand Canyon 0.95"
Page and the Grand Canyon aren’t tracked by the National Weather Service (NWS) for records. A personal weather station(KAZPAGE1) in Page, AZ recorded 3.16 inches, with a rain fall rate over 1.5 inches per hour. In Sedona, a personal weather station(KAZSEDON3) recorded over half an inch of rain on both Friday and Saturday.
The cool wet weather should be a nice break for the forests. Hopefully, the moisture will help keep the fire season to a minimum.
This week, I am going to start adding some monsoon tracking info, some new tools from the NWS and a look at the upcoming hurricane season.
Radar Estimate of Precipitation for last 7 days
As I watch the tropics for other reasons, like vacation, I notice the storminess in Northern Arizona. There is a flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Northern Arizona. It looks just like the summertime monsoon flow. Hopefully, it will bring rain and not fires.
Wow, I was reading this on Monday: Thoughts on Summer
And now the National Weather Service says:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST WED MAY 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. SPRINGTIME BREEZES ARE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY.
So, we will see, but I think this summer could be quite mild and a little cooler than normal. Still not certain about precip for the summer.
Here is a good laymen’s article from the National Geographic: “Sun Oddly Quiet — Hints at Next Little Ice Age.”
My personal opinion is that National Geographic has been too fast to jump on the Human Caused Global Warming. Here is an article from NG in 2006: “Don’t Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says.”
I think the bottom line is that we simply don’t know enough about how the Sun effects the Earth. Solar output is low right now, and has been for a couple years. But, when you consider the full spectrum radiation and the associate effects, we just don’t know enough to predict climate. Solar output during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum’s were probably similar to what we are seeing today.
Oh yeah, sunny, warm and occassionally breezy for Northern Arizona. It’s May.
May is here. It is one of the dryer months for Northerm Arizona. This May isn’t looking much different. It should be dry and nice for the most part. I don’t see any big drivers for warmer than normal temps.
But, what about sea ice. If you remember a couple years back, there were great expectations of the North Pole being ice-free. Well, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards for now. Here are a couple charts that tell a diffferent story. Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice did recede drastically a few years back. But, it is currently the highest coverage since 2002 at the start of May.
Northern Sea Ice Coverage 5-1-09
However, the departure from average for 1979 until now is still negative, but moving in a growth direction:
Northern Sea Ice compared to average 79-09
One more consideration is the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice, where it is above average and growing:
Southern Sea Ice 5-1-09
Finally, overall, Global Sea Ice coverage is above average: Granted, recent levels have been below average:
Global Sea Ice 5-1-09
So, shouldn’t the mainstream media give us a general update? If this trend continues, it might snow in London, or Lousiana, or, maybe just maybe we will see two back to back seasons where we can skate on Lake Mary, south of Flagstaff. Oh wait those things already happened.
Shouldn’t be a wash-out by any means. Sunday should be relatively nice, warmer and sunnier.
