Most forecasts are trending toward a breakdown of the high pressure along the California Coast and the storm door to open up for next week. This has been the repetitive story this winter. So, we know there is a chance nothing will come of it. But, more and more forecasts are lining up for a first round on Friday evening and more the following week. Keep your fingers crossed.
On another note, here is a great summary of Surface Temperature Measurement Issues for Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast.
It is starting to look like we may have a chance for a change to a wetter pattern for a little while. This Friday appears to be the first opportunity, with 2-3 more in the next couple weeks. There isn’t any consistentcy about these storms between models or forecasts outlets. We will have to wait and see. Also, cooler than normal weather is still on tap for the near future.
But, since I will be driving along the Mogollon Rim on Friday, I can almost gaurantee snow, at least where I am driving.
It keeps looking like we will get a reasonable sized storm in the 6-10 day time frame. The problem is this: tomorrow it will look like we might get something in the 6-10 day time frame. Next weekend looks like our best recent chance for meaningful precip. But, we will have to wait and see. The long term forecasts are pointing to cooler and possibly wetter conditiona for early April. I remain skeptical.
My PC that runs the weather station and webcam is on the fritz. I tried to get it to at least a bare minimum of supporting ther website. I won’t have the ability to get the webcam up for a while. If the station goes down this week, it may be down for two. Sorry.
My station saw over 47 mph on Thursday. There is a chance of precip showing up for next Wednesday. But nothing consistent. Here is what the National Weather Service reported for winds:
Statement as of 9:15 PM MST on March 26, 2009
.. Very windy conditions across much of northern Arizona on Thursday... Peak wind gusts reported to the National Weather Service as of 9 PM MST Thursday night include: Winslow Airport ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 61 mph. St. Johns Airport ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 58 mph. Prescott Airport ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 46 mph. Show Low Airport ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 45 mph. Flagstaff Airport ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 44 mph. Additional automated weather reporting sites include: Leupp ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 58 mph. Greer ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 51 mph. Wupatki ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 49 mph. Stanton ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 48 mph. Hopi ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 46 mph.
For the brave, I would like to point out this article: Coorelation Between Cosmic Rays and Ozone Holes.
For everyone else, I recommend you learn a little more about ozone holes here: ICECAP
You may have to search for the article on the Icecap site. I’m not saying CFC’s are particularly good for everything, but shouldn’t we learn and decide?
Oh yeah, for Thursday, we get wind. Expect conditions similar to last weekend. Roar!
There is still some small chance of light precip tomorrow. But, Northern Arizona is really going to just get wind. Could be as windy as it was on Sunday. We are 2 inches behind in precip for the month. Not a good sign.
Looking forward, there isn’t much showing up until very far out in early-middle April.
Things are looking good for some precip on Thursday. Not sure how much, probably minor. I would be we get some more wind, though.
I clocked over 50mph on my roof over the weekend. March may roar out like the lion after all.
April showers may be on the long term horizon. The first weekend in April keeps looking like it could bring a storm.
The storm we are expecting for today and tonight may just bring wind when it is all said and done. Any precip will be minimal. The sky and the Shark Oil Barometer are clear. Later this week and sometime next week, storms are set to dig farther south and have a bigger impact than today’s.
All of which prompts the questions of
The graph below shows the high and low temperatures and peak wind speed for each day in March. Overall, March has been quite warm in Northern Arizona with the average temperature for the month coming in at 4.7 degrees above normal. But, you already knew that. Looking at winds for the month, there really doesn’t seem to be a meaningful trend. Notice that the daily low temps have been fairly stable.
If the storms pay-off for the next week or so, then I think we will be leaving with the lion, hopefully a soaking wet one.
It won’t be a lot of water, maybe a centimeter at best, but it looks to arrive on Sunday. Snow levels should be high starting out.
I think it’s safe to say I blew the winter forecast this year. Overall, I think it’s been warm and dry. NOAA just issued their spring forecast. They are looking for continued warmth with equal chances of dry versus wet. But, they aren’t forecasting “drought” conditions. Personally, I am baffled. Warmer than average future, entering a dry season (spring is our dryest season), after a less than average wet winter…doesn’t that equal drought?
It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.
The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold. From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather
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