The shark oil barometer has been mostly clear for quite a while. March will be interesting.
Tomorrow (Sunday, March 1) may bring record high temperatures to Northern Arizona. This will be a brief but enjoyable event. Perhaps windy.
Next week, temperatures should start to head back to normal or below. Then, we should see the storm door open. Right now, it appears we will have 2-3 weak to moderate strength storms by the middle of the month. It does not look like we will see record breaking snows like we have earlier this season.
I’ll try to run a temperature analysis for february tomorrow.
Hi all, the weather is continued warmth! Enjoy. March will bring a change. The Shark Oil Barometer is mostly clear at this point.
I have added two computer precipitation model outputs to my web pages. One is a download from the Navy, the NOGAPS Model. Most of these model runs cover out to 6 days. The other is a download from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), the GFS Model. These are image intensive and make take a little time to fully load.
Please, could folks give it a look and let me know if they are working for you? I’m not sure all the bugs have been worked out. Thanks!
What a difference a day can make. Much of the snow in Flagstaff has melted in the last day or so. Here is a picture of the run-off in Switzer Canyon.
Switzer Canyon Run-Off 2-23-09
It’s about 40 degrees this morning. The clouds overnight have been acting like a big blanket. The record for this date is 66 degrees. A 26 degree temperature change could happen, if the sky is clear and there is no frontal activity. It will be close at least.
The forecast is for 61 degrees.
We should continue to see off and on clouds and mild temps for the next week or so. March looks to bring a change to that.
If you remember this post, the early winter was strongly governed by a persistent high pressure system floating off the California Coast. Now, the situation has reversed. There seems to be a persistent low pressure system floating off the California Coast.
This change should keep the storm door open, to an extent. We should be seeing a “normal” precipitation pattern for the next couple weeks. Doesn’t seem like there will be any big dumpers, though.
Tonight’s forecasts are still all over the place, but 2-8 inches looks like the range. Then we should leave the deep freeze for most of the next week. Next weekend should be quite nice.
A few storms systems should still affect us by the end of the month.
Edinburgh is much colder than normal and making the news.
But, Flagstaff has undergone a serious warm to cold shift. The two graphs below show hoe temps have altered in the last couple weeks. Keep in mind, December was below normal, overall. January was above normal, overall. February looks to be a roller coaster.Right now, it is running 2 degrees below normal.
Flagstaff Temperatures - February 1-14, 2009
Comparison of Average Temperature to Actual
And the predicted intensity of the next storm continues to drop. Looks like the next storm is going to be delayed over California and loose much of it’s moisture there. Long range, it still looks like storms are going to roll through, the next one just isn’t going to meet previous expectations for snow amounts. It will be below normal for temps the next few days.
Here is the noon-time Shark Oil Barometer pic:
Clear Shark OIl Barometer
Here is a movie of the barometer clearing after last nights storm.
2-14-09
Looks like Southern California is going to bear the brunt of the precip for the next few days. We cancelled our trip to LA as a result.
For Flagstaff, it looks like everything shifted last night. Thursday evenings seem to bring changes to the forecasts. Saturday will have some snow, 2-5 inches. Accumulation will be heavily dependent on location. The next storm rolls in on Monday. The NOGAPS model is showing about 10inches of accumulation from Monday afternoon through Wednesday. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) has their GFS model showing the same. The weather is spread out over a longer time frame, too. Accuweather has cut just about anything remarkable from their forecasts until next Friday.
There is still time for everything to change again. One thing looks certain, it’s going to be cold! I have 0.3F at my house this AM.
Please see below. If anyone has any thoughts, drop me a note.
My grandmother, born in Bermuda, brought a small shark liver oil barometer with her when she moved to Westerly RI in 1915. I was facinated by it when I was young.
that original barometer was lost, and I have tried several times to remanufacture one; with little success.
i’ve tried using shark liver oil from a company that suplies it health food companies, doesn’t work. i tried to misc. with some water and temperature; that didn’t do it either.
finnaly i tried the, alternate + shark friendly formulation from B.U.E.L. but the crystals dissolved after two days, never to be seen again.
i’d love to hear from anyone with experience making or using these.
upsidownyak
