Maybe, could be…Looks like the pressure system might shift next week!!!
Accuweather and Climate Prediciton Center both aligh on a wet trend for Flagstaff that starts 6-8 days out.
Another Shot Next Week???
Northern Arizona Weather
Comments Off
Jan 292009
Falling Apart
Northern Arizona Weather
Comments Off
Jan 252009
Looks like the low pressure moisture link is falling apart for Monday’s storm. Also, it appears that the storm door will slam shut towards the end of the week with the high pressure returning. Might be two weeks before it opens again.
But, Mondays always bring forecast changes. We’ll see.
Update – Monday am: Looks like only a few inches will fall and be quickly replaced by warmer, drier conditions by the end of the work week. Next chance is about 2 weeks out.
S.O.B. Image
Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer
Comments Off
Jan 232009
Shark Oil Barometer (1-23-09 Light Rain)
Here is today’s image from the S.O.B. (Shark Oil Barometer) As a update note, the forecasts and models for next week are all over the place. I am still betting on some part of the week being very wet or very snowy.
The current storm has produced about a quarter of an inch of rain.
Return to Winter
Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer
Comments Off
Jan 232009
Next week is looking messy, but how messy is the question. Last night, the Navy NOGAPS model and their GFS models both correlated by showing 2-4 inches of water on Monday evening through Tuesday night. That would be 2-4 feet of snow, roughly speaking. This morning most sites predict snow, but some are wavering. NOGAPS shows about 0.25 inches of water. We will see. Personally, I think this next storm might get us back on track to normal precipitation for the month. The Climate Prediction Center shows this:
Jan 27-28, 2009 Precipitation
I don’t think they have been very reliable, particularly in the 6-14 day outlooks, this winter.
The shark oil barometer is cloudy this am. I may try to get a webcam running to show it.
Pattern Shift Ahead
Northern Arizona Weather
Comments Off
Jan 192009
For at least the next 6-10 days, it looks like there is a good chance for things to return to the pre-Christmas, December pattern. This first round look s like it may be light on water content and cold weather. Over the weekend, the models kept switching between dry and 3/4″ of water. Now, 1/10″ to 1/4″ of water precipitation looks to be in order. But the NOGAPS and GFS models disagree. NOGAPS shows very little precip. GFS shows quite a lot. In Flagstaff, we will most likely be rain.
But wait, there is more! There are opportunities for the storms to keep moving through every few days, with temperatures dropping along the way. I can almost guarantee next week will be snowy, because of the activities I have planned.
Today the Shark Oil Barometer is totally clear. But, did you notice the clouds moving into the area? We haven’t had clouds in quite a while, I think.
Why is the snow still here?
Climate, Northern Arizona Weather
Comments Off
Jan 182009
As is everyone else, I wonder why December’s snow is still around in mid-January. Has is been colder than usual? I pulled some data from the National Weather Service for the winter months since 2004. Here is what I found for mean temperatures:
2004-2009 Mean Winter Temperatures
Excepting December 2008, there appears to have been an overall downward trend for December, January and February. March seems independent. So one would think a few degrees lower each day, plus a considerable snowfall might lead to the snow sticking around for a while. But overall, last month, December 2008, was on par with previous years??? December starts the month with a “normal” daily mean temperature of 32F and finishes with a “normal” daily mean temperature of 29F. Early December was quite pleasant as shown below:
December 2008 Temperatures
Take note of the trend for the month. While the average “normal” drops from 32F to 29F, the trend for the month went from balmy to fridgid. The first 10-days of December had a well -above-average daily average temperature of 36.67F. The last 10 days of December had a well -below-average daily average temperature of 25.4F. That could explain the snow sticking around through the holidays.
But January remains as an issue. Overall for the month, we are above “normal” temperatures, by 2 degrees, and much warmer than the last two winters.
Here is my theory, the massive 4 inches of water that fell mostly as snow in December was allowed to stick around due to the cold temperatures that accompanied it. It must have formed a self-insulating mass that lingers to this day. The current heat and sunlight just can get deep enough to melt it.
Oh yeah, still looks like the next couple weeks could be like late December…have you checked your roof?
Last Chance to Clear Your Roof
Northern Arizona Weather
Comments Off
Jan 172009
Forecasts and models continue to point toward the storm door opening and remaining open for a couple weeks. This first storm may be warm in the beginning, bringing rain. But, more storms, most likely cooler, are stacked up behind it. The pattern is looking much like the Christmas timeframe.
If you need to get the snow and ice off your roof. Now would be the time. Certapro has always done a good job of removing snow on roofs.
