Comments for Stu's Weather Blog

Comment on I didn’t see this coming by Clouds and showers in the area again this morning? » Stu's Weather Blog

Clouds and showers in the area again this morning? » Stu's Weather Blog — Tue, 19 Mar 2013 13:41:59 +0000

[...] is under performing compared to most forecasts. It started last weekend as I noted in my post on Saturday afternoon. Forecasts had predicted Saturday’s and Sunday’s high temperatures to be in the low to [...]

Comment on Have to break out the T-model by Did the National Weather Service read my blog? » Stu's Weather Blog

Did the National Weather Service read my blog? » Stu's Weather Blog — Mon, 03 Dec 2012 13:44:59 +0000

[...] added a 10% chance of showers on Thursday. Maybe they understand the power of the T-model. See my post from yesterday below this post. Or, more likely, Their super computers chucked out something. NWS agrees with [...]

Comment on Cut-off low pressure system makes for tough weekend forecast by John

John — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 03:15:06 +0000

been tough, watching the models waver all week on this one… really had my hopes up early on… but for now it seems gfs and ec are in agreement, tracking the bulk of the system to the south… still, the digital forecasts are including some precip in the form of snow for the sat night period. hard to get a handle on QP tho… HPC gives us good odds for .25-.5″ of water in the 1-3 day time period.

Comment on Saturday could be a good rain day by Taylor

Taylor — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 17:38:46 +0000

It would be fascinating to see hourly Skew-T plots across a 24-hour period on an active monsoon day. Seeing the sequence of change would help understand what to look for in an individual Skew-T.

Comment on Saturday could be a good rain day by Taylor

Taylor — Sat, 27 Aug 2011 17:35:23 +0000

For me, these plots are both fascinating and stultifying.

In an earlier post you say, “The brown dotted line, mostly to the right of the red line, shows what would happen to a parcel of air as it rises in altitude.”

Do you know which atmospheric values (relative humidity, temperature, etc.) the brown dotted line is plotting the change of? That is, as the air rises, what sort of change does this line depict?

Also, do you know where I can find an explanation of the metrics employed in measuring the Convective Available Potential Energy?

Comment on Seem like summer yesterday? by John

John — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 00:58:57 +0000

loving these (nearly) windless days! gfs model sure doesn’t show much happening in terms of precip. for the next 10 days, but it was great to see those clouds yesterday nevertheless. up high in the mountains the trails (covered, as they always are this time of the year, with moondust) even showed a few signs of a bit of rain yesterday… i think the drop-spacing was down to about 1-drop per square inch or so above about 8500′.

Comment on It’s almost a requirement by John

John — Mon, 30 May 2011 14:48:28 +0000

well, ya got that one right, stu!

my friend steve says, “in flagstaff, the wind doesn’t blow. it sucks.”

he was right yesterday, for sure. wow.

Comment on March and Winter Review by John

John — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 03:59:50 +0000

twas a wonky winter, regardless. kudos to you for trying to forecast it… and likewise for owning up to how hard to was to predict what actually transpired. a season to remember… when we basked in the sun in jan… froze like i cannot recall in feb… and got a major april dump that was all-but-gone in a matter of days… a wonky season, indeed. not glad it’s over, but glad to be on to a spring that feels mostly normal at the moment.

Comment on Quick Look at February by John

John — Wed, 02 Mar 2011 14:15:33 +0000

from my perspective, as a daily bicycle commuter, i can tell you: this winter has been the coldest i can remember in the last 15.

Comment on Here we go again! (Yippee!!!) by John

John — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 14:08:00 +0000

i’ll chime in with a double-yippie!

that PSU graphic looks like it was sourced right off the unisys site. ntl, pretty colors indeed!

onset looks right for sat night, but i think sunday morning’s gonna see the greatest intensity. qpf data seems to agree… regardless, 48 hours from now i expect to be waiting in line for first-chair… while snowbowl tries, once again, to load as many of us as possible (usually, when it’s snowing, that’s about 33% capacity) on to their worn-out old chairlift.