Friday was a record, will it show up in the record books? And, where will the next 12-18 inches of snow go.

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Friday was a record, will it show up in the record books? And, where will the next 12-18 inches of snow go.
Jan 212017
 
GFS and NAM models total snowfall forecasts through Tuesday Morning. (From Tropical Tidbits)

UPDATED (9:52AM, January 22): Winter Storm Warning in effect. See below

Answers: I don’t know. And, on the ground, of course.

The National Weather Service provides two great products for looking at Flagstaffs weather. The Daily Climate Report and the Preliminary Monthly Climate Data Report. Yesterday, both reports were showing MM, or missing data for snowfall on both days. This has been repaired in the Monthly, but the Daily for January 20 still shows MM. The total snow fall was 12.6 inches. In the January 20 report, the record snowfall for the date was 7.1 inches in 1954. I wonder if it is still a record. Also, a Record Event Report archive is available. There is no report for January 20 or 21. I hope we don’t lose the data. This was a significant event.

Another interesting aspect, the snowfall amount broke the record, but the total precipitation amount did not. Must have been a warmer storm in 1954.

The bigger question is how deep will the next chunk of snow be? The GFS model caps it at a foot. The NAM model shows more, around 18 inches. You can see the difference in the image below. The Navy’s NoGaps model doesn’t run a snowfall calculation. But adding up the individual precipitation amounts and going with a rough 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of water, it looks like it is on the 18 inch side of the discussion. In any of these cases, it looks like the snow starts in earnest again on Sunday evening and goes through Tuesday. Current a Winter Winter Storm Watch is in effect. I would expect a that to change to a warning.

GFS and NAM models total snowfall forecasts through Tuesday Morning. (From Tropical Tidbits)

GFS and NAM models total snowfall forecasts through Tuesday Morning. (From Tropical Tidbits)

**********************

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2017

...THE THIRD AND FINAL STORM IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

.THE NEXT STORM HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF ARIZONA
THIS MORNING...AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR
AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION...WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS DOWN
TO NEAR THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL.

AZZ004-006>008-015-230300-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.WS.W.0002.170122T1645Z-170124T1200Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...
VALLE...FLAGSTAFF
945 AM MST SUN JAN 22 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
  TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 15 INCHES FOR
  AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET ELEVATION. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG
  SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE KAIBAB
  PLATEAU. CONSULT POINT SPECIFIC FORECAST AT:
  WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

* SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 9 AM MST TODAY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY...

     DONEY PARK  5 TO 9  INCHES       FLAGSTAFF  9 TO 15 INCHES
   GRAND CANYON  9 TO 15 INCHES      JACOB LAKE 11 TO 17 INCHES
      NORTH RIM 20 TO 26 INCHES           VALLE  4 TO 8  INCHES
       WILLIAMS  6 TO 10 INCHES

* WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE
  STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
  WINDS OVER 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 WILL SEVERELY REDUCE
  VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO
  SNOW PACKED AND SLICK ROADS. VISIBILITY COULD ALSO BE SEVERELY
  REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. FOR THE
LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT
WWW.AZ511.COM.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
 Posted by at 11:49 pm

Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff
Dec 252016
 

December 24, 2016 set a new record for snow fall at 10.1 inches it beats the old record of 4 inches in 1914. White Christmases are rare!

Merry Christmas to all!

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1220 AM MST Sun Dec 25 2016

…Snowfall Reports as of 12 AM MST Sunday December 25th…

Location Amount Time/Date
Flagstaff Airport                     10.1 in 1200 AM 12/25
Bellemont (NWS)                   10.1 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescot                      10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                     10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
Mountainaire                            9.5 in 0736 PM 12/24
Parks                                           8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Kachina Village                         8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Flagstaff (Industrial Par         8.0 in 0800 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                       7.0 in 0836 PM 12/24
1 S Prescott Valley                    6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Prescott Valley                          6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Bagdad                                        5.0 in 0900 PM 12/24
2 SE Pinetop-Lakeside             4.5 in 0746 PM 12/24
Grand Canyon Village              4.5 in 1030 PM 12/24
Doney Park                                 4.5 in 0745 PM 12/24
1 WSW Uptown Sedona           4.0 in 1130 PM 12/24
4 W Chino Valley                       4.0 in 0823 PM 12/24
1 W Heber-Overgaard               2.5 in 0749 PM 12/24
3 N Mcnary                                 2.5 in 0835 PM 12/24
Payson                                         2-4 in 1100 PM 12/24
1 WSW Seligman 2.0 in 0451 PM 12/24

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

 Posted by at 5:43 am

Second wettest August since 1950

 Hurricane, Record  Comments Off on Second wettest August since 1950
Aug 272016
 

With two days of record rainfall, 1.41 inches on Friday, 0.94 inches on Saturday, the total precipitation for August at the Flagstaff airport is 6.34 inches. Since placing the National Weather Service placed the weather station at the Flagstaff Airport in 1950, only August of 1986 had higher rainfall at 8.06 inches. This brings the 12 month precipitation over 26 inches, and the two-year total to over 52 inches.

The computer models keep projecting a drying trend, which never shows up. We’ll see what happens. I haven’t written in a while because the model outlooks have been in flux. Watching the potential development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic has been very perplexing. Over the last week, one system has shifted between a band of organized thunder storms to a very powerful hurricane in and around Florida several times. Hurricanes, and forecasts of hurricanes, can affect the weather, and forecasts of the weather, for thousands of miles around. For some reason, there is a huge amount of variability in the computer models now. It will probably persist for the next few weeks as a very powerful storm is in the longer term outlooks.

 Posted by at 11:10 pm

Record Snow!

 Record  Comments Off on Record Snow!
Nov 052015
 

Yesterday the Flagstaff Airport reported 9.9 inches of snow which is a record for November 4. The old record was 5 inches in 1925. Also, the amount of water precipitation was a record at 0.71 inches.I think it is interesting that 10 inches of snow in early November is a record. I think it is in a range that we could easy expect with any fall storm.

Definitely a wet start to November, but I don’t think it will last. A drying trend is extending well over the horizon. Exceptionally cold temperatures are on tap for tonight.

 

CLIMATE REPORT...CORRECTED FOR SNOWFALL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
827 AM MST THU NOV 5 2015


...................................

...THE FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 4 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         34   1227 AM  73    1975  55    -21       48
  MINIMUM         24   1050 PM  -1    1922  26     -2       31
  AVERAGE         29                        41    -12

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.71R         0.65 2011   0.06   0.65     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    1.64                      0.23   1.41     0.60
  SINCE SEP 1      6.61                      4.27   2.34     4.39
  SINCE JAN 1     25.03                     18.46   6.57    17.23

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY        9.9R           5.0  1925   0.2             0.0
  MONTH TO DATE    9.9                        0.8              T
  SINCE JUL 1      9.9                        2.3              T
  SNOW DEPTH       3
 Posted by at 12:44 pm

That was a wet one

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Winter Storms  Comments Off on That was a wet one
Mar 032015
 

Clearing and warming are on the horizon for Northern Arizona. The next two mornings will be in the teens, but we will be back to the 50s for highs by the weekend. A few showers may linger around the area today. Currently, there are no storms in the forecasts for the next week.

The storm totals are here. This was a whopper storm for the region. The Flagstaff Airport received over 4 inches of water. Yesterday was a record at 1.71 inches.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 700 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
 
 ...SNOW AND RAIN REPORTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ...
 
 A MULTI-DAY EVENT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW 
 ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.
 THE SNOWFALL TOTALS BELOW ARE FROM MONDAY ONLY. THE 
 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION
 OF THE EVENT...LASTING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
 
 
 ***************STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT****************
 
 LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                      RAINFALL           OF 
                      /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT
 
 ARIZONA
 
 ...APACHE COUNTY...
    WINDOW ROCK           0.82   622 PM  3/02                           
 
 ...COCONINO COUNTY...
    FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT     4.09   600 PM  3/02                           
    KACHINA VILLAGE       3.49   645 PM  3/02                           
    HAPPY JACK            3.14   630 PM  3/02                           
    BLUE RIDGE            2.74   630 PM  3/02                           
    MORMON LAKE           2.32   625 PM  3/02                           
    GUNSIGHT (RAWS)       1.89   609 PM  3/02                           
    FRAZIERS WELL         1.66   611 PM  3/02                           
    TUSAYAN               1.53   610 PM  3/02                           
    GRAND CANYON AIRPORT  1.45   600 PM  3/02                           
    PARIA POINT (RAWS)    1.41   607 PM  3/02     
    PAGE AIRPORT          1.22   608 PM  3/02                           
    WUPATKI RAWS          1.11   625 PM  3/02
 Posted by at 7:03 am

As promised, a wet start to the monsoon season

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on As promised, a wet start to the monsoon season
Jul 072014
 

To kickoff the monsoon season in fine form, the Flagstaff Airport received a record-breaking 1.89 inches of rain on July 4, 2014. I didn’t see it reported in the Arizona Daily Sun’s website.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ
1239 AM MST SAT JUL 05 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT...

 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.89 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.85 SET IN 1986.

More is on the way. Considering that the airport’s normal is 2.61 inches, rainfall for this month should not find it terribly hard to hit normal. There are some dry time periods over the horizon. Also, not everyplace received that much rain. Here is the rain totals for the month so far as independently reported to Rainlog.org at the University of Arizona. The monsoon season has had a healthy start.

Month to date rainfall for the Flagstaff area. July 7, 2014. (Source rainlog.org

Month to date rainfall for the Flagstaff area. July 7, 2014. (Source rainlog.org)

 Posted by at 6:40 am

Records are falling like rocks

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on Records are falling like rocks
Dec 102013
 

The average temperature for yesterday was 24 degrees F below normal. The low of -9 degrees F a the airport edged out the previous low of -8F. This morning it looks like we blew through the previous record of -5F and hit rock bottom at -9 again. I think both previous records were from 1951. Wow, that’s cold, especially for early December.

But, some parts of the world get much colder. Antarctica, which is moving into summer, is unbelievably cold. A review of the satellite temperature data shows that the world’s lowest temperature was set in August of 2010 at -135.8F. In July of this year, it came very close to a new record at 135.3 degrees F below zero.

So far this month, Flagstaff is just more that 7 degrees below average. It should warm up for the next week or so. There is a small chance of rain or snow on Thursday. I think the storm will effect eastern and southeastern parts of the state. Hopefully, we will be above freezing.

 Posted by at 6:31 am

Record high temperature misses all time record

 Monsoon, Record  Comments Off on Record high temperature misses all time record
Jun 292013
 

Our all-time record high is 97 degrees. Yesterday’s record of 96 for Flagstaff missed the record. Now, the forecast show Flagstaff being cooler than that over the next few days. This is due to the arrival of some monsoonal moisture which has brought clouds and thunder. Here are yesterday’s records.

 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON JUN 28 2013...

 CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD)            NEW HIGH      PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
 COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2013)     114          110        IN  1994
 FLAGSTAFF (1899 - 2013)                96          94         IN  1990
 GRAND CANYON NP N RIM (1925 - 2013)    89          88         IN  1950
 PAGE (1997 - 2013)                    109          103        IN  2011
 PETRIFIED FOREST (1931 - 2013)        103          103 (TIED) IN  1990
 PRESCOTT (1898 - 2013)                104          102        IN  1900
 PRESCOTT AIRPORT (1948 - 2013)        104          100        IN  1990
 SELIGMAN (1905 - 2013)                105          103        IN  1970
 WINSLOW (1899 - 2013)                 107          104        IN  1973

If you haven’t visited the National Weather Service’s Monsoon Tracking site from Tucson, I think it is worth a look. Here is the Flagstaff dew point chart. Notice the boost the dewpoint temperature got yesterday. That dewpoint temperature boost turned the temperatures around as clouds formed. The outlook is for the monsoon to steadily build.

Flagstaff dewpoint graph from the NWS Monsoon tracking site

Flagstaff dewpoint graph from the NWS Monsoon tracking site

 Posted by at 7:04 am

Is the Flagstaff Airport gauge located under a leaky roof?

 Monsoon, Monthly Review, Northern Arizona Weather, Record  Comments Off on Is the Flagstaff Airport gauge located under a leaky roof?
Aug 182012
 

Or is it just a monsoon season? When the National Weather Service publishes graphs like the one below, it makes me wonder about the quality and site of their Flagstaff equipment. In reality, I think this is just the character of monsoon seasons.

Monsoon Precipitation from the National Weather Service. August 17, 2012

Monsoon Precipitation from the National Weather Service. August 17, 2012

Flagstaff Airport is just below normal for the season. A few sites in Northern Arizona, like Walnut Canyon, are well above normal. As I have mentioned in the past, I report my rainfall totals to two sites. The University of Arizona operates Rainlog. NOAA runs CoCoRaHS . Rainlog is easier for most people to use because of the required resolution is lower than CoCoRaHS. Also, I like Rainlog’s map feature.

Here is a map of the Flagstaff area with rainfall totals from 6-15-2012 until 8-17-2012 from Rainlog. At least one site appears to have not been reporting all summer. It is right next to my site, on the map. Others may have missed data, but by and large, the people who record their data are diligent about it.

Total rainfall reported on rainlog for 6-15-2012 to 8-17-2012

Total rainfall reported on Rainlog for 6-15-2012 to 8-17-2012

Many locations have reported 5 inches or more. I have reported almost 6 inches in the middle of town. There is string of stations from Kachina Village up to University Heights, including the Airport, which are around 3.5 inches. This is just how monsoons go. The Rainlog map is fun. You can look around Northern Arizona and see how the rest of the state is doing.

It could all change with the next storm. If you want to know what is happening in your neighborhood, you can buy an official CoCoRaHS rain gauge and report your precipitation to both websites. Rainlog also sells a rain gauge, but I am not sure if the resolution is high enough for the CoCoRaHS standard.

 

 

 Posted by at 5:46 am

Record Breaker for December 1

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Record Breaker for December 1
Dec 032011
 

It blows me away when we have record-breaking 6 inch snow falls, in December, in Flagstaff. That’s what happened on Thursday. I’m not sure what the old record was, but I think I remember seeing about 4.5 inches. The record below is goofy because it reports a record in 2011, but always says the snowfall data is missing. Most of us can probably remember digging out of bigger snowfalls in late  November and early December. This shows how short our climate record really is. We don’t have a good sense for what our boundaries truly are.

...THE FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 1 2011...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2011
WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         36   1015 AM  66    2008  45     -9       57
  MINIMUM         19            -7    1905  19      0       12
  AVERAGE         28

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.42          1.38 2007   0.05   0.37     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    0.42                      0.05   0.37     0.00
  SINCE SEP 1      7.59                      5.85   1.74     5.51
  SINCE JAN 1     18.93                     20.04  -1.11    24.49

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       MM             6.0  2011   0.5             0.0
  MONTH TO DATE   MM                         0.5             0.0
  SINCE SEP 1     12.5                      12.3             8.1
  SINCE JUL 1     12.5                      12.3             8.1
  SNOW DEPTH       0
 Posted by at 6:20 am
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