New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again
Dec 282016
 
24-hour precipitation probability for Saturday from the Climate Prediction Center.

It looks like the computer models are focusing on a weaker version of last weekend. Just a few inches of snow are possible. Most likely, it will be on Saturday, with lighter precipitation on either side. In any case, I would be ready for winter weather this weekend, particularly if you are traveling. Here is the 24-hour precipitation probability for Saturday from the Climate Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation probability for Saturday from the Climate Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation probability for Saturday from the Climate Prediction Center.

The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks continue to look wetter than average. When I look at the long range computer models, I don’t see that trend. We’ll see what actually happens.

6-10 and 8-14 day precipiation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. (Dec. 27, 2016)

6-10 and 8-14 day precipiation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. (Dec. 27, 2016)

 Posted by at 7:07 am

Another complex forecast – New Year’s?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Another complex forecast – New Year’s?
Dec 272016
 
6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, December 26, 2016.

The Navy NoGaps or NAVGEM model isn’t matching the GFS model again. But this time, it’s the other way around. The Navy model from this morning so a dry spell ahead with no repeat of last weekend. The GFS model shows a pair of major storms hitting Arizona again. The one-two punch of last week could still be repeated this weekend.

Rain and/or snow are in the forecast for Thursday through Monday. Travel could be difficult for the entire holiday weekend. The GFS model shows heavy snow hitting Sunday. Currently, the Climate Prediction Center outlooks call for above average precipitation for the next two weeks. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is below.

Since Tuesday is the first day of this work week, we will see how things change by the end of the day today. December is already way above average for precipitation.

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, December 26, 2016.

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, December 26, 2016.

 Posted by at 6:33 am

Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff
Dec 252016
 

December 24, 2016 set a new record for snow fall at 10.1 inches it beats the old record of 4 inches in 1914. White Christmases are rare!

Merry Christmas to all!

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1220 AM MST Sun Dec 25 2016

…Snowfall Reports as of 12 AM MST Sunday December 25th…

Location Amount Time/Date
Flagstaff Airport                     10.1 in 1200 AM 12/25
Bellemont (NWS)                   10.1 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescot                      10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                     10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
Mountainaire                            9.5 in 0736 PM 12/24
Parks                                           8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Kachina Village                         8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Flagstaff (Industrial Par         8.0 in 0800 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                       7.0 in 0836 PM 12/24
1 S Prescott Valley                    6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Prescott Valley                          6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Bagdad                                        5.0 in 0900 PM 12/24
2 SE Pinetop-Lakeside             4.5 in 0746 PM 12/24
Grand Canyon Village              4.5 in 1030 PM 12/24
Doney Park                                 4.5 in 0745 PM 12/24
1 WSW Uptown Sedona           4.0 in 1130 PM 12/24
4 W Chino Valley                       4.0 in 0823 PM 12/24
1 W Heber-Overgaard               2.5 in 0749 PM 12/24
3 N Mcnary                                 2.5 in 0835 PM 12/24
Payson                                         2-4 in 1100 PM 12/24
1 WSW Seligman 2.0 in 0451 PM 12/24

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

 Posted by at 5:43 am

Enjoy! Merry White Christmas!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Enjoy! Merry White Christmas!
Dec 242016
 
8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on December 23, 2016.

Not much has changed in the outlook. Snow is on it’s way to Northern Arizona. After a windy morning, accumulations in the 8-12 inches will mostly arrive this afternoon and evening(Storm Warning text is below the graphic). Ta-da! White Christmas!

Be very careful with travel!!!

What’s possibly more interesting is that it looks like a repeat is over the horizon for next weekend. It looks like another one-two punch is focused around New Years. One storm comes in from the west, followed by a second storm rising from the south-southwest. The current computer model projections have both bringing significant snow to the Northland.

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on December 23, 2016.

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on December 23, 2016.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
450 AM MST SAT DEC 24 2016

AZZ004-006>008-015-016-242200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0006.161224T1800Z-161225T0600Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...
VALLE...FLAGSTAFF...HAPPY JACK
450 AM MST SAT DEC 24 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
  EARLY THIS MORNING. STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP
  DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
  LIKELY FROM ABOUT NOON UNTIL 8 PM MST...WITH THE EARLIER TIMES
  IN THE WEST AND THE LATER HOURS TO THE EAST.

* GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF
  SNOW BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FEET...WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW
  ABOVE 8000 FEET. PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY ABOVE 6000 FEET
  WILL SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES. SEE DETAILS BELOW OR CONSULT POINT
  SPECIFIC FORECAST AT: WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

* SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 11 AM MST TODAY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS
  EVENING...

     DONEY PARK  3 TO 5  INCHES       FLAGSTAFF  7 TO 11 INCHES
   FOREST LAKES  8 TO 12 INCHES        FREDONIA  1 TO 2  INCHES
   GRAND CANYON  2 TO 4  INCHES HEBER-OVERGAARD  2 TO 4  INCHES
     JACOB LAKE  2 TO 4  INCHES       NORTH RIM  5 TO 9  INCHES
PRESCOTT VALLEY  1 TO 3  INCHES        PRESCOTT  3 TO 5  INCHES
       SELIGMAN  1 TO 3  INCHES           VALLE  1 TO 3  INCHES
       WILLIAMS  7 TO 11 INCHES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. FOR THE
LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT
WWW.AZ511.COM.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
&&

$$

 

 Posted by at 6:31 am

White Christmas Storm Watch

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on White Christmas Storm Watch
Dec 232016
 

Updated: Friday Afternoon, Dec 23, 2016. Winter Storm Warning

It’s almost here. But first, an admission (I mean I got something wrong, not a ticket to the movies). I got the timing wrong on the arrival of the rain in the Northland. It came earlier than I expected. I was watching the White Christmas event too closely.

And, the White Christmas will be delivered on time and in healthy form. Below is the Winter Storm Watch from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff.  Precipitation will probably come and go until it strengthens around lunch time on Saturday. From then, until Sunday morning, there will be significant accumulation of snow. If you are coming to or trying to leave the Northland for Christmas, leave before the snow begins.

Depending on terrain effects, 6-12 inches should fall on the Flagstaff area. As you can see below, Snowbowl should get much more snow.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST FRI DEC 23 2016

AZZ004-006>008-015-016-240545-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0006.161224T1800Z-161225T0600Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...
VALLE...FLAGSTAFF...HAPPY JACK
240 PM MST FRI DEC 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM MST
SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
  MORNING AND BECOME HEAVY AFTER 1100 AM MST.

* GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FEET.

10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.

6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET IN YAVAPAI COUNTY.

* CONSULT POINT SPECIFIC FORECAST AT: WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

* SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 11 AM MST SATURDAY UNTIL 11 PM MST
  SATURDAY...

     DONEY PARK  5 TO 9  INCHES       FLAGSTAFF  7 TO 11 INCHES
   FOREST LAKES  7 TO 11 INCHES    GRAND CANYON  4 TO 6  INCHES
HEBER-OVERGAARD  2 TO 4  INCHES      JACOB LAKE  4 TO 8  INCHES
      NORTH RIM  5 TO 9  INCHES           VALLE  3 TO 5  INCHES
       WILLIAMS  7 TO 11 INCHES

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH WINDS 20
  TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON
  SATURDAY WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. FOR THE
LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT
WWW.AZ511.COM.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.&&

$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
341 AM MST FRI DEC 23 2016


AZZ004-006>008-015-016-240045-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0004.161224T1800Z-161225T0600Z/
KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...FREDONIA...
GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...VALLE...FLAGSTAFF...HAPPY JACK
341 AM MST FRI DEC 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
  MORNING AND BECOME HEAVY AFTER 1100 AM MST.

* GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...

 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FEET.

 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.

 6 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET IN YAVAPAI COUNTY.

* CONSULT POINT SPECIFIC FORECAST AT: WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ON
  SATURDAY WHICH WILL CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS
  WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONG WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
 Posted by at 6:13 am

Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Comfortably in the 8-14 inch range
Dec 222016
 

Not a big post today. As we get closer to the weekend, higher resolution computer models are available. The White Christmas picture keeps looking better and better…assuming you will not be driving this weekend. In the higher resolution North American Mesoscale model (NAM), Flagstaff is easily in the lighter shades of red/pink. 8-14 inches of snow are possible. More and less in areas with terrain effects. Snowbowl could get 12-22 inches of fresh snow!!!

Total snow fall through Christmas Afternoon. (NAM Model at Tropicaltidbits.com)

Total snow fall through Christmas Afternoon. (NAM Model at Tropicaltidbits.com)

 Posted by at 7:09 am

Even Better!!!

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Even Better!!!
Dec 202016
 
24-hour snowfall total, ending Christmas Morning 2016. (From GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com)

This morning there is good agreement on timing, storm tracks and precipitation amounts in the NoGaps and the GFS model. Both show a pair of storms bring moisture and a White Christmas to Northern Arizona. This gives us a great graphic from Tropical Tidbits.

24-hour snowfall total, ending Christmas Morning 2016. (From GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com)

24-hour snowfall total, ending Christmas Morning 2016. (From GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com)

I think Flagstaff is comfortably in the 3-6 inch range for snow. Practically perfect! I think even more is possible. The Mountain could get a full foot or more. We’ll see.

The first storm will go through Arizona from Thursday evening to Friday afternoon. This could be problematic for skiers. This storm will come from the southwest and bring warm temperatures and rain. There isn’t any snow in the models, right now. The National Weather Service has added snow to the forecast for the area around Snowbowl, but with minimal accumulations from this storm.

The second storm will hit Saturday afternoon and continue through the night and into Christmas Day. This storm will come from that north west and bring cooler temperatures. I think Flagstaff is comfortably in the 3-6 inch range for snow. Practically perfect! I think even more is possible. The Mountain could get a full foot or more. We’ll see.

This is almost a direct hit for a White Christmas!

 Posted by at 4:56 am

More agreement on White Christmas

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on More agreement on White Christmas
Dec 192016
 
Snow Miser (Christmas Specials Wiki)

Monday morning forecasts are tricky. Everything seems to change as people show up to work and pay more attention to what’s going on with the weather and the computer models. Still, this morning, there is more agreement between the GFS and Navy models.

The Navy model shows precipitation starting on Friday afternoon and lasting at least into Saturday. It may even last through the entire day. Also, the Navy model shows easily over half an inch of water. The storm appears to be a cut-off low pressure system. The Navy seems to do better at forecasting these. Their temperature model show relatively high snow levels. I think the precipitation is most likely to be snow.

6 hour total precipitation ending Friday evening, December 23, 2016. (US Navy NoGaps model)

6 hour total precipitation ending Friday evening, December 23, 2016. (US Navy NoGaps model)

The GFS model from the Climate Prediction Center shows a storm arriving later and producing but producing similar precipitation amounts. It also shows warmer temperatures through the day on Saturday. This would limit snowfall.

We’ll see what happens. Everything seems to change by Monday afternoon.

48 hour total precipitation amounts Ending Christmas morning,from the GFS model. (Climate Prediction Center)

48 hour total precipitation amounts Ending Christmas morning,from the GFS model. (Climate Prediction Center)

I used the image below as the featured image. Here is a link to the page that talks about the Snow Miser. It’s worth a read, and the TV show is worth watching. I think it sums up this upcoming storm.

Snow Miser (Christmas Specials Wiki)

Snow Miser (Christmas Specials Wiki http://christmas-specials.wikia.com/wiki/Snow_Miser)

 Posted by at 4:49 am

Navy says we may have a very White Christmas

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Navy says we may have a very White Christmas
Dec 182016
 
6-hour precipitation outlook from the U.S. Navy's NoGaps computer model for Friday evening, December 23, 2016.

I was feeling under the weather. Both because I have a cold, and the GFS computer model was not predicting any precipitation. Below is the 24 hour precipitation GFS model forecast for Friday, December 23, 2016. You’ll notice that the Arizona is covered in white, meaning no rain or snow. The rest of the intervening time has no snowfall predicted for Flagstaff.

24 hour total precipitation late Friday night, Dec. 23, 2016 forecast from the GFS computer model, via TropicalTidbits.com.

24 hour total precipitation late Friday night, Dec. 23, 2016 forecast from the GFS computer model, via TropicalTidbits.com.

So, I decided to check with the Navy to see if they thought the previously forecasted storm had vanished. They have a much different outlook for a similar time period. Their forecast below is for 6 hours, ending late Friday evening.

6-hour precipitation outlook from the U.S. Navy's NoGaps computer model for Friday evening, December 23, 2016.

6-hour precipitation outlook from the U.S. Navy’s NoGaps computer model for Friday evening, December 23, 2016.

This is a much different picture. The Navy has the precipitation starting on Friday morning and continuing through Saturday morning. If the Navy is correct, there could be significant snowfall during this time.

 Posted by at 6:29 am

Warm, wet storm Thursday to Saturday

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Warm, wet storm Thursday to Saturday
Dec 142016
 

The temperatures for the approaching storm will keep the snow levels high, at least for much of the storm. However, the storm still could bring plenty of rain to Flagstaff, and snow to the Peaks. The best news is that it looks like there will be a storm track for the next couple weeks that will bring more light snow to the region.

Still, things can always change. Rain can become snow ahead of schedule. Be prepared.

 Posted by at 11:04 am
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