Purplish Picture Present Promising Precipitation

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Purplish Picture Present Promising Precipitation
Jan 292016
 

I’ve looked at a new site for computer model data. I think the pictures are prettier than the US Government site. No surprise there. The snow fall pictures are purple and orange for this weekend. It looks like the Flagstaff groundhogs will have a bit of digging to do to get to above the snow on Groundhog Day. In the image below, Flagstaff has a big 12 printed on it.

Three day total snow accumulation, ending midnight Monday night, February 1, 2016. (From TropicalTidbits.com)

Three day total snow accumulation, ending midnight Monday night, February 1, 2016. (From TropicalTidbits.com)

The colors are definitely more dramatic. The reaction to this storm from the National Weather Service hasn’t been until tonight. This storm is going to be big. It has shown up in the computer models as a big storm for a while. Just on Friday evening did they get excited.

There could be local effects causing the total to be more or less than the forecast. This is especially true with the windy start to the storm.

 Posted by at 10:11 pm

Pre-Groundhog’s Day storm coming

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Pre-Groundhog’s Day storm coming
Jan 242016
 

I don’t know if a groundhog living in Flagstaff will see his shadow on February 2. But, it will see some fresh snow. Next Sunday and Monday should be snowy. For the last few days the GFS model has repeatedly shown snow for these days. The amounts have varied. Some model runs have over 1.5 inches of water. Some have only 3/4 inch of water.It’s simply too early to tell what the accumulation will be, but Flagstaff should get at least a few inches, it maybe be more than a foot.

El Nino years are often like this year. The storm track is split to the north and the south, but the southern track has often been below Arizona. When Flagstaff gets a storm, the storm amounts will be heavier than in other years. January has not been very snowy. But, the big storm earlier in the month covered the average amount, making any more snow above average. This next storm could be a big boost.

48-hour total precipitation forecast from the GFS Model ending Monday evening February 1, 2016.(from the Climate Prediction Center)

48-hour total precipitation forecast from the GFS Model ending Monday evening February 1, 2016.(from the Climate Prediction Center)

 

 Posted by at 2:13 am

I’m confused, or not…

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on I’m confused, or not…
Jan 052016
 

I’m looking at Wunderground‘s, the National Weather Services and Accuweather‘s precipitation forecasts. (The National Weather Service updated theirs while I wrote this post, it was roughly half of what it is now) Here’s how precipitation through Friday Morning looks:

National Weather Service 9-23 inches
Accuweather 8-20 inches
Wunderground 16-25 inches

The Wunderground forecast has been on the high-end. Maybe there isn’t a big difference. Does 8 inches feel much different from 16 inches? Does 25 inches look more wintry than 20 inches? The biggest forecast difference is probably tonight through Wednesday. Basically, plenty of snow is on the way.

One more note, Wunderground calls for rain on Friday.

 Posted by at 6:15 am

Winter hits hard next week.

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Winter hits hard next week.
Dec 282015
 

December has been low on moisture compared to normal, and near normal for the average temperature. Low precipitation in an El Niño December probably is not very unusual. I’ll have to look. But, it all changes in the start of January. A series of storms is due next week. Arizona will get plenty of moisture with seasonal normal temperatures. Enjoy this week’s sun while it’s here.

6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediciton Center. (12-28-2015)

6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center. (12-28-2015)

 Posted by at 3:32 pm

Wetterkerze

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wetterkerze
Dec 142015
 

Since moving to Germany last summer, I kept hearing stories about a man in Bavaria that could forecast the long-range winter weather with high accuracy. Over lunch last week, I got more of the details. Details that leave me wondering if his forecast method could work in Northern Arizona. I can’t remember anyone mentioning it to me in Arizona, but we have the necessary supplies to try it. Check out the picture below.

Sepp Haslinger inspects a Wetterkerze to predict the winter weather. (From the  Merkur Newspaper)

Sepp Haslinger inspects a Wetterkerze to predict the winter weather. (From the Merkur Newspaper)

Does the plant in the photo look familiar?In North America, it is known as the Great Mullein. Some call it the Woolly Mullein because of its very fuzzy leaves. It’s native to Europe, but some consider it a noxious weed in Arizona.

Sepp Haslinger lives in or near a town call Bad Tolz which is at the base of the German Alps. He calls the plant a Wetterkerze, or weather candle. Bad Tolz is not far from Munich. The photo is from an article about him in the Merkur newspaper. Much like Flagstaff, the region depends on revenue from skiers and snowboarders. Therefore, a strong winter is important to the local economy. Herr Haslinger inspects the blooms on the candle-like Great Mullein to forecast the weather for the local region. He stresses it is only locally applicable. He claims a 90% historic accuracy. Like many mountain areas, the weather can very greatly over fairly short distances.  Currently, he believes a white Christmas is unlikely in the region, but a long, hard, snowy winter is to follow after the New Year. I may have to try to connect with him sometime.

I am wondering if anyone has heard of this being done in Arizona? Please, drop me a note if you have.

I’m back in AZ for the next month. I’m comfortably in Phoenix for today’s expected snow. Those of you who have felt like it has been too warm and dry since mid-November, should hold on tight. It all ends. Temperatures are going to plummet. Snow is going to fall. A very large storm is possible before or during Christmas.

 Posted by at 4:13 am

That was a wet one

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Winter Storms  Comments Off on That was a wet one
Mar 032015
 

Clearing and warming are on the horizon for Northern Arizona. The next two mornings will be in the teens, but we will be back to the 50s for highs by the weekend. A few showers may linger around the area today. Currently, there are no storms in the forecasts for the next week.

The storm totals are here. This was a whopper storm for the region. The Flagstaff Airport received over 4 inches of water. Yesterday was a record at 1.71 inches.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 700 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015
 
 ...SNOW AND RAIN REPORTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AZ...
 
 A MULTI-DAY EVENT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW 
 ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA.
 THE SNOWFALL TOTALS BELOW ARE FROM MONDAY ONLY. THE 
 LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION
 OF THE EVENT...LASTING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
 
 
 ***************STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT****************
 
 LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                      RAINFALL           OF 
                      /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT
 
 ARIZONA
 
 ...APACHE COUNTY...
    WINDOW ROCK           0.82   622 PM  3/02                           
 
 ...COCONINO COUNTY...
    FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT     4.09   600 PM  3/02                           
    KACHINA VILLAGE       3.49   645 PM  3/02                           
    HAPPY JACK            3.14   630 PM  3/02                           
    BLUE RIDGE            2.74   630 PM  3/02                           
    MORMON LAKE           2.32   625 PM  3/02                           
    GUNSIGHT (RAWS)       1.89   609 PM  3/02                           
    FRAZIERS WELL         1.66   611 PM  3/02                           
    TUSAYAN               1.53   610 PM  3/02                           
    GRAND CANYON AIRPORT  1.45   600 PM  3/02                           
    PARIA POINT (RAWS)    1.41   607 PM  3/02     
    PAGE AIRPORT          1.22   608 PM  3/02                           
    WUPATKI RAWS          1.11   625 PM  3/02
 Posted by at 7:03 am

Very wet start to March to continue today

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Very wet start to March to continue today
Mar 022015
 

We received almost 2 inches of water yesterday. I’m surprised this wasn’t a record. It would have been a record on the day before or after. I think another inch could arrive today. I don’t think we will add much to the snowfall totals in Flagstaff. But if the temperatures are low enough, we could.

The winter storm warning is in effect. Radar shows a slow northward churning cold from to the west. It should arrive later this morning with plenty of water.

...THE FLAGSTAFF AZ AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 1 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1898 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         40   1137 PM  67    2009  47     -7       43
  MINIMUM         32   1041 AM -10    1997  21     11       32
  AVERAGE         36                        34      2

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        1.98          2.81 1970   0.08   1.90     1.09
  MONTH TO DATE    1.98                      0.08   1.90     1.09
  SINCE SEP 1     14.12                     11.96   2.16     8.80
  SINCE JAN 1      6.29                      4.29   2.00     1.69

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY        8.0          26.0  1970   0.7             0.7
  MONTH TO DATE    8.0                       0.7             0.7
  SINCE JUL 1     46.9                      73.9            34.2
  SNOW DEPTH       4
 Posted by at 6:46 am

Okay, this looks real!

 Winter Storms  Comments Off on Okay, this looks real!
Feb 262015
 

Snow flurries are starting to fall this afternoon. They are a harbinger of a huge amount of water on the way. The current outlook is for rain tomorrow (Friday). Then snow through at least next Wednesday. Make your preparations now! Travel may be very difficult for the next week in the Northland. The outlook below from Wunderground has 19-30 inches of snow over the next week.

10-day weather outlook graphic from wunderground.com

10-day weather outlook graphic for Flagstaff, AZ from wunderground.com

The 3.5 and 7-day outlooks from the NAM and GFS models, respectively, match the wunderground outlook. The 3.5-day outlook has us in the 2 inch and above range. The 7-day outlook has us in the 3+ inch of water range. Stand by for warnings to be posted.

3.5 day total precipitation outlook from NOAA's NAM model.

3.5-day total precipitation outlook from NOAA’s NAM model.

Total 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA's GFS Model

Total 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s GFS Model.

 Posted by at 4:11 pm

I guess I missed this one…but maybe not

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on I guess I missed this one…but maybe not
Feb 232015
 

I kept thinking this storm, and the one in the forecast for later in the week, would be have a similar story to the other ones this year. Their either wouldn’t materialize, or pass us by to the north. Even yesterday as things were getting started, a bypass to the north seemed reasonable. I thought we would have consistent weather patterns, at least until March. As Emerson said:

A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.

So, it seems I missed this snow event.  It’s 33 degrees outside now. The dew point has bobbed around 32. The sun will come up soon and temperatures should drift slowly but surely above freezing. The National Weather Service is calling for up to 11 inches of snow in Flagstaff. There could very well be 11 inches by tomorrow morning. But, the ground is fairly warm, and the air temperatures are two. This will be a very wet, heavy snow.

I’m doubtful that we will see 11 inches in most places.

The other end of the week has a storm for us too. The storm door may finally open for us.

 Posted by at 6:36 am

Looks like everyone gets a slice of being off

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Looks like everyone gets a slice of being off
Dec 312014
 

If you look back to my post from yesterday, it did not include waking up to over an inch of snow. So, the storm got a bit of an earlier start. The middle of the day will probably bring us heavy snow. It’s too early to tell how long it will last.

The earlier start should make it easier to hit the deeper snowfall forecasts. The storm formed over the San Diego and Los Angeles area yesterday night. I think this allowed it to draw moisture up from the south sooner than I expected, and sooner than many of the computer model runs allowed. Even yesterday afternoon, the computer models showed the storm forming more to the east, with less precipitation for Flagstaff

The National Weather Service has increased their snowfall forecast(below) in their Winter Storm Warning to 9-15 inches. Wunderground has increased their forecast to 8-12 inches. AccuWeather is forecasting about 9-10 inches. We are in for a big storm. This morning’s radar shows a large band of moisture moving our way.

* SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 4 AM MST TODAY UNTIL 5 PM MST
  THURSDAY...

     CAMP VERDE  1 TO 2  INCHES    CHINO VALLEY  4 TO 8  INCHES
       CONGRESS  1 TO 2  INCHES      COTTONWOOD  1 TO 3  INCHES
         DILKON  4 TO 6  INCHES      DONEY PARK  8 TO 12 INCHES
      FLAGSTAFF  9 TO 15 INCHES    FOREST LAKES 13 TO 19 INCHES
HEBER-OVERGAARD  6 TO 10 INCHES        HOLBROOK  2 TO 4  INCHES
     KYKOTSMOVI  4 TO 8  INCHES         PAULDEN  4 TO 8  INCHES
         PAYSON  5 TO 9  INCHES PINE-STRAWBERRY  8 TO 12 INCHES
PRESCOTT VALLEY  4 TO 8  INCHES        PRESCOTT  6 TO 10 INCHES
         SEDONA  4 TO 6  INCHES        SELIGMAN  8 TO 12 INCHES
         SHONTO 10 TO 16 INCHES SNOWFLAKE-TAYLR  2 TO 4  INCHES
      TUBA CITY  4 TO 7  INCHES        WILLIAMS 10 TO 16 INCHES
        WINSLOW  1 TO 3  INCHES
 Posted by at 6:09 am
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