As a result of the Schultz fire, there is an enhanced risk of flash flooding in the burned areas and to the east of these areas. The National Weather Service is seeking additional spotters in the area.
Rainfall Spotters Needed for Schultz Fire Area
From the National Weather Service Flagstaff:
Hydrologic Outlook
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
AZZ015-092300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 2 2010
...SCHULTZ FIRE BURN AREA INCREASES RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE SCHULTZ FIRE...THE BURNED AREA AND THE AREA
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO HIGHWAY 89 IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. THIS INCLUDES THE HUTCHINSON ACRES AND
TIMBERLINE NEIGHBORHOODS. RISES IN WATER LEVELS DURING SUCH EVENTS
MAY OCCUR MORE RAPIDLY AND MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER THAN THOSE
PRODUCED PRIOR TO THE FIRE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS
AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN AND NEAR THE MINOR DRAINAGES
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE BURN.
A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL ON A BURNED WATERSHED CAN LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODS OR DEBRIS FLOWS. RAINFALL THAT IS NORMALLY ABSORBED
CAN RUN OFF EXTREMELY QUICKLY AFTER SOILS AND VEGETATION HAVE BEEN
CHARRED. CONSEQUENTLY...RUNOFF WILL BE GREATER AND MORE RAPID THAN
PRIOR TO THE FIRE. FLOOD WATERS CAN PICK UP LARGE AMOUNTS OF
ASH...SAND...SILT...ROCKS...AND REMNANTS OF VEGETATION. THE FORCE OF
RUSHING WATER AND DEBRIS CAN DAMAGE OR DESTROY
CULVERTS...BRIDGES...ROADWAYS...AND IN SOME CASES
BUILDINGS...POTENTIALLY CAUSING INJURY OR DEATH.
RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS BETWEEN THE BURN AREA AND HIGHWAY 89
SHOULD HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT AND A PLAN TO EVACUATE. IF ROADS ARE
BLOCKED OR IT IS UNSAFE TO EVACUATE /DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...DEBRIS
FLOWS...HEAVY RAIN...OR POOR VISIBILITY/ IT IS BEST TO SHELTER IN
PLACE IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. CALL 911 IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A FLASH
FLOOD OR DEBRIS FLOW. IF YOU ARE IN A VEHICLE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO
FLOOD WATERS OR DEBRIS FLOWS.
WHEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SCHULTZ BURN AREA...IT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN YOUR
AREA. YOU SHOULD START PLANNING FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION IF YOUR AREA
IS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.
WHEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE SCHULTZ BURN AREA...IT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR WILL OCCUR VERY SOON. DO NOT DELAY TAKING PROTECTIVE
MEASURES EVEN IF RAINFALL IS LIGHT AT YOUR LOCATION. ONCE RAINFALL
BECOMES HEAVY...EVACUATION ROUTES MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE CONTENT OF THIS
PRODUCT...PLEASE CONTACT
GEORGE HOWARD
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
928-556-9161 X223
GEORGE.HOWARD@NOAA.GOV
$$
TC/GFH
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR OFFICIAL WARNINGS AND FORECASTS.
Temperatures stayed elevated last night as the moisture from the south made it to Northern Arizona. Dewpoints have been boosted to the low 30′s. This should help with the Schultz Fire. But, the National Weather service is forecasting only isolated, dry thunderstorms…with lightning.
But, I am starting to wonder as I look at this mornings sky, and the precipitable water and dewpoint maps from NWS-Tucson. Both would point to a decent chance of rain today. It’s all about timing. The southwest winds are expected to kick in again today. As you can see, there is another band of dry air to the southwest, waiting to move into area.
This weekend should be warm and dry. The next moisture plume looks to arrive mid to late next week.
Dewpoint 6-25-2010
Total Precipitable Water 6-25-2010
Schultz Fire - Back Burn
Fire Fighters set a back burn around Schultz Tank around lunchtime today. Many people were concerned at the abrupt smoke plume.
High pressure moving into the right position for drawing moisture up from the south. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the moisture will make it up to Flagstaff this week. Here is a picture showing hoe the position of the high pressure drives moisture around to the north into the Southwestern US. More information can be found on my Monsoon Mechanics website.
Early Monsoonal Flow
For the Schultz Fire, the winds have shifted to being out of the north this morning. This should change back to the southwest and clear the smoke out of the downtown and Cheshire areas.
Dry southwest winds are on tap for the area again today. Not good for fire fighting. It looks like the first dose of monsoonal moisture will be on it’s way Thursday, but it may not make it all the way to the Flagstaff area. But, the winds should slowly die down over the next few days. But, that will come with warmer temperatures as we head towards normal, to above normal temperatures
For today, I think the dewpoint forecast map tells the tale: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/td700mb.php
On a nice note, the days were warm and the nights were cool at Lake Powell over the weekend. Remember not to park too close to the water and leave your car for several days. We watch many cars get towed from the parking lot near Wahweap Marina. Both sets of tires were in the water on them, and one car had it’s front end in the water. The water level went up over 3 feet in the last week. The rate is slowing, though.
UPDATED: Photos from about 4PM minutes before Highway 89 was closed. Tonight flames are visible from downtown Flagstaff. The smoke has a red-orange glow to it. More pictures here: http://stu-in-flag.net/schultzfire/
From the entrance to the national forest, north Flagstaff on 89
Top of the Pass on the east side of the Peaks - 89
In the smoke, starting to head downhill to Timberline
On Highway 89, in Timberline Area
Looking back to northwest after coming through the smoke
Heading up 4th Street in Flagstaff
There is a fire north east of Williams. The Eagle Rock Fire started yesterday. The high winds hampered efforts. The aerial crews were grounded because of the winds. The winds have also brought much low dewpoints. Overnight the dewpoint at my weather station dropped to 12F. The Airport is report 20F for the dewpoint. It had been hovering in the low to mid-30s. Winds are going to whip up again today. They should be out of the southwest. More fire information can be found at the Southwest Coordination Center. They run a Twitter update as well.
Lake Powell rocketed past my guess for max water level for this summer. I guessed 3635 feet as the max height. It gain 0.54 feet (over 6 inches) on Tuesday to reach 3635.14. The 3642-43 foot range may still be a reasonable end point as the rate of increase has fallen from it’s recent highs of about 3/4 foot per day. The inflow rates to the lake have dropped as well. More data can be found at the Lake Powell Water Database.
Lake Powell Water Level
There is a good chance for rain today. But, the chances will taper back down from here through the week as we return to the same pattern we have seen all summer: A westerly to southwesterly flow from misplaced pressure systems will return. Possibly, by next weekend chances will move upward.
Yesterday’s storms hit some areas in a big way. But, most of Northern Arizona got only a little bit of moisture(see below). It looks like they are wrapping up the Taylor Fire.
Daily Precip for 8-23-09 from Intellicast.com
Overnight the temperatures barely dropped
Temperature and Dewpoint at My Weather Station 24hours prior to 630am, 8-20-09
From about 1030pm until this morning, the temperatures have barely budged. Compared to 49 degrees F a couple days ago, it’s 59 degrees this morning. So, today could be quite warm compared to recent days.
But, this is only a prelude to potentially very wet weather moving in through the weekend. Enjoy it while it lasts!
Taylor Fire Update
By this weekend we should have some moisture back in the area. Hopefully, that will help calm the Taylor fire. Temperatures and winds should remain moderate until then.
Here is an update on the Taylor Fire, burning 22 miles southwest of Flagstaff in the Sycamore Canyon WIlderness area.
