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Monsoon Outlook from Climate Prediction Center

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Jun 242012

Dewpoints shot-up in Southern Arizona today. Tucson’s dewpoint temperature made it above the magical 54 degree point. Flagstaff’s dewpoint seemed a bit higher today. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting a higher than normal precipitation probability for the next month and the next 3 months. Because of the low resolution of these maps, it’s hard to tell if Flagstaff is in the green areas.

One month precipitation outlook – Climate Prediction Center

Three month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Dewpoints are well below average

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Jun 232012

Across all of Arizona, dewpoints continue below average. They aren’t extremely below average, but they aren’t close to monsoon levels. This doesn’t bode well for an early start to the monsoon season. As you can see from my dewpoint chart on the right, they haven’t budged in days. The chart below is from the Monsoon Tracker at the National Weather Service in Tucson.

Flagstaff dewpoint temperatures from the Monsoon Tracker website of the National Weather Service in Tucson, Arizona.

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has 30% chances of thunderstorms starting tomorrow and continuing through the week. Weather Underground has episodes of storms and sun for the week. Accuweather has pushed any rain until the 4th of July. Given the low dewpoint temperatures, the 4th of July may make the most sense. Of course, we could get a surge of moisture.

Could the first thunderstorm of the season come this weekend or Monday?

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Jun 192012

There is a good chance it could happen this weekend. For the next few days, temperatures will be hot for the Northland. The Valley has been extremely hot for a few days. It has to get hot to drive the start of the season. Will the next few days be enough? Tucson had its first thunderstorms on Saturday. I was down there and witnessed them.

AccuWeather had projected rains to start this weekend, until this morning. Now, it looks like everyone is on the bandwagon. Below or the 6-8 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, and the GFS precipitation model outlook for 36 hours ending next Tuesday morning. The GFS is one of the inputs for the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook. So, both have plenty of precipitation for next Monday.

6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, June 19, 2012

GFS 36 hour precipitation forecast, ending next Tuesday morning

Summer oven starts-up this Sunday

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Jun 142012

A friend of mine always says, it has to get hot for the monsoon season to start. This Sunday and most of the next two weeks will be hot. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s for the last two weeks of the month. We may even see 90s.

But, there is apparently good news for the summer rainy season. The Climate Prediction Center is predicting that drought conditions will improve across southeastern Arizona. Our area will see some improvement. I look at this site regular and cannot remember them ever predicting improvement of our drought conditions in the summer. I am slightly concerned about El Nino building and cutting our precipitation outlook for the summer.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Monsoon Watch

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Jun 102012

For quick reference, I have add a 2 week historic graph of the dewpoint measurements from my weather station. It appears on my main page just below the summary image. Also, I have added it for now on the top of right-hand sidebar on the blog. Notice that for this time of year dewpoints are currently in good shape in the upper teens and lower 20′s. The monsoonal thunderstorms become more likely as the dewpoint moves above 50F.

Cooling trend ahead, first thoughts about Monsoon

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Jun 092012

May was fairly warm. June has continued this trend. But the outlook for the next two weeks is for a general cooling trend. I don’t think we will see near freezing temperatures, but it could happen. The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature anomaly charts are below. For the month to date, we are about 2 degrees above normal. For the next couple weeks, normal to cooler than normal conditions will prevail. Instead of temperatures being in the low 80′s, temperatures will be in the mid-70′s (72-77).

6-10 day temperature anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

8-14 day temperature anomaly out look from the Climate Prediction Center

The Climate Prediction Center is expecting an El Nino to build this summer. To me, it seems like they expect one to build every time this year. I think it is doubtful because of the general cooling in the Pacific. If El Nino starts this summer, I think that will result in a drier monsoon season. The Pacific Ocean’s sea surface temperatures and anomalies animation is below. Notice the equatorial warming off the coast of Peru. It’s worth watching.

Global Sea Surface temperatures and anomaly animation from the Climate Prediction Center

Cooler weather after monsoonal weekend

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Sep 302011

Tropical Storm Hilary isn’t going to make it to Arizona. But, we will get a fresh shot of monsoonal flow out of the south. I don’t think we will see large amounts over the Northland. We could see strong thunderstorms and all their elements; wind, hail, etc.

Next up is cooler temperatures and a break from the recent, highly nice, unseasonably warm temperatures. The look out for the next two weeks has turned to colder forecasts. The National Weather Service has posted a nice slide today discussing the threat of frost and the average date of frost for multiple locations in Northern Arizona. We are clearly in the zone. Here is my post on Fall Freeze Probabilities.

Also, somewhere over the horizon another storm system will brush Arizona. But, this doesn’t look like the long-term trend. Unfortunately,a mostly dry, winter weather pattern could be taking a set.

6-10 day temperature outlook - Climate Prediction Center

Fast Moving Severe Thunderstorm hits Flagstaff

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Sep 122011

A fast moving thunderstorm hit Flagstaff around 6 am. At my house in Switzer Canyon, I saw 1/2 inch hail. When I tried to get out of my car, my finger got zinged by chunk of ice. I stayed in my car until it changed back to sleet. The storm followed me home from the West side Flagstaff Athletic Club. There was sleet and hail all along the way.

Here is a (not great) video:

After Thursday, we should start to experience warmer than normal, dry conditions for most of the rest of the month.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
610 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

AZC005-121330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-110912T1330Z/
COCONINO AZ-
610 AM MST MON SEP 12 2011

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY…

AT 606 AM MST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILEPOST 195 ON I-40…OR NEAR
FLAGSTAFF…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
STORM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
MILEPOST 195 ON I-40 BY 615 AM MST…
FLAGSTAFF BY 620 AM MST…
MILEPOST 200 ON I-40 AND MILEPOST 205 ON I-40 BY 630 AM MST…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT…LON 3533 11161 3518 11147 3504 11179 3514 11186
TIME…MOT…LOC 1309Z 234DEG 15KT 3516 11168

Wet September

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Sep 062011

Looks like we have 3 rounds of moisture for early September.

The current round took a very circuitous route to get here. It had to go way to the south, then get scooped up from the southwest on a Pacific low pressure trough. This is a pretty unusual moisture flow for this time of year. Typically, the southwest flow is dry. So, today our temperatures are lower and we have dew-points in the upper 50s.

The next round of moisture will take a shorter route and come in around Thursday and Friday. Next week, the current models show us getting the remnants of a tropical systems from Baja.

However, the high pressure that has brought severe drought to Oklahoma and Texas is drying out the entire region. I wonder if it will be able to hold off the moisture flow to Arizona.

Hot, dry August for most of Northern Arizona

Monsoon, Monthly Review, Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Sep 032011

For Flagstaff, it wasn’t exceptionally dry. In fact, our precipitation was just about right in the historic middle. There were few stormy days, but wet when we got them. The rest of Arizona was exceptionally warm and exceptionally dry.

Prescott and Winslow set new records for August’s monthly temperature profile.

There are a couple of notes I want to make about August’s climate profile for Flagstaff. First, the hot days weren’t all that hot. We didn’t set any record high temperatures in August 2011. Many, if not most days were above average for high temperatures. I think it is more noticeable that most days had much above average low temperatures. I think this was the true driver of the over all high average daily temperature for the month.

Weather for Flagstaff, August 2011 - Weather Underground

Another point is that several days with winds out of the southwest. From a rough eyeball count, I see 20 days where the winds were from the southwest. While the winds were heavy, it seemed like there were often days when you could watch a cloud grow, look promising, but then drift off to the northeast and dissipate.

It still looks like the Monsoon will go out with a roar over the next two weeks. It may start as soon as this weekend or Monday. We’ll see. With 2 tropical systems to the east, Katia and Lee, anything can change.

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Switzer Canyon, AZ

Switzer Canyon, Flagstaff, AZ
temp:	70.3 F (21.3 C)
humidity:	14%
wind:	From the SSW at 3.4 MPH Gusting to 7.4 MPH
pressure:	30.36" (1028.0 mb)
station:	KAZFLAGS23
hardware:	Oregon Scientific WMR-100a
updated:	May 24, 10:44 AM MST
local forecast