Monsoon » Stu's Weather Blog

It’s just how Monsoon Season works!

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Sep 082012

The National Weather Service has posted their Month In Review for August, 2012. The report includes the graphic below comparing August 2012 precipitation to historic numbers.

Comparison of precipitation for August 2012 to historic normal. National Weather Service - Flagstaff

There are very wet areas. There are very dry areas. The Monsoon Season rarely results in uniform distribution of rainfall. I think looking at rainlog.org helps show this reality of the Monsoon Season. Looking across Northern Arizona, we see wide variability. I know I kept wondering if the weather station at the Flagstaff Airport had its rain gauge under a tree. They reported less than 3 inches while the eastern and northern areas of Flagstaff reported considerably more than 3 inches. It matches the division to the south and east in the image above.

If you look down around the Prescott-Sedona area, you can note several locations above 4 inches and several locations under two inches. one spot near Clarkdale had almost 6 inches. Another site near Prescott recorded only 1.1 inches. It's just how the Monsoon Season works.

For the next few days, most of Northern Arizona will be wetter than normal. If you have ever been to the Killer Whale Show at Seaworld, you already know the saying "you will get wet, you may get soaked." If you have a chance, buy a high quality rain gauge and report your rain at rainlog.org.

August precipitation for Northern Arizona from rainlog.org.

Drying trend

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Aug 242012

The last few days have been wet. Many people had rain falls over 1 inch. Even the Weather Service reported almost an inch for yesterday. I might wander out to the airport this weekend to look at how they have positioned their rain gauge. High and low pressure areas are going to shift around for the next few days and dry us out. The dry conditions may be temporary or last quite a while. The Climate Prediction Center has 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for drier than average conditions for Arizona. Most forecasts, such as from Wunderground.com and the National Weather Service, don’t quite reflect drier than average. Their predictions are for mostly 30-40% chance of precipitation. These forecast will probably change.

Today we should have drier weather.

Latest 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Is the Flagstaff Airport gauge located under a leaky roof?

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Aug 182012

Or is it just a monsoon season? When the National Weather Service publishes graphs like the one below, it makes me wonder about the quality and site of their Flagstaff equipment. In reality, I think this is just the character of monsoon seasons.

Monsoon Precipitation from the National Weather Service. August 17, 2012

Flagstaff Airport is just below normal for the season. A few sites in Northern Arizona, like Walnut Canyon, are well above normal. As I have mentioned in the past, I report my rainfall totals to two sites. The University of Arizona operates Rainlog. NOAA runs CoCoRaHS . Rainlog is easier for most people to use because of the required resolution is lower than CoCoRaHS. Also, I like Rainlog’s map feature.

Here is a map of the Flagstaff area with rainfall totals from 6-15-2012 until 8-17-2012 from Rainlog. At least one site appears to have not been reporting all summer. It is right next to my site, on the map. Others may have missed data, but by and large, the people who record their data are diligent about it.

Total rainfall reported on Rainlog for 6-15-2012 to 8-17-2012

Many locations have reported 5 inches or more. I have reported almost 6 inches in the middle of town. There is string of stations from Kachina Village up to University Heights, including the Airport, which are around 3.5 inches. This is just how monsoons go. The Rainlog map is fun. You can look around Northern Arizona and see how the rest of the state is doing.

It could all change with the next storm. If you want to know what is happening in your neighborhood, you can buy an official CoCoRaHS rain gauge and report your precipitation to both websites. Rainlog also sells a rain gauge, but I am not sure if the resolution is high enough for the CoCoRaHS standard.

Wow! What a wet day!

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Aug 172012

I received 1.27 inches of rain yesterday. This is by my manual gauge. My weather station and software reported a bogus 4.5 inches. Below is a copy of the radar estimated rainfall for yesterday from Intellicast. There were reports of a foot of hail on the ground in Bellemont. If anyone has pictures of this, I would love to post them on my page. Please use the “Contact Stu” link above.

Radar estimated precipitation for August 16, 2012 from Intellicast.

Somehow, the airport seems to be hidden under a roof. There reported only 0.12 inches for yesterday. This seems wrong given how much rain fell elsewhere and that the coverage seemed extensive. Was anyone at the airport yesterday?

Flagstaff Airport Climate Report for August 16, 2012. National Weather Service

July’s persistent weather pattern

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Aug 042012

The pattern for July was very strong and provided much needed, always needed, rain to most of Arizona. There were still some dry spots, but otherwise, July was wet. The middle of the US was not so lucky and is suffering an intense and extended drought.

Very intense high pressure has dominated the middle of the country. In the Northern Hemisphere, high pressure systems have a clockwise flow. This strong high pressure has ensured a constant flow of moisture from the tropics into Arizona. This wet pattern is now projected to continue into the fall.

Here is an animated gif from the Climate Prediction Center showing the precipitation outlook for the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 1 month and 3 month periods. Notice in the fall, a slight shift to the southwest occurs. I think this is probably due to the mild El Nino effect. This is not a strong El Nino and may not have a large, lasting effect. Currently, we are in a lull with much less storm activity since the heavy storms on Tuesday evening. This shouldn't last and we will have more rain on the way.

Animated gif of the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 1 month and 3 month precipitation outlooks. From Friday August 3, 2012.

On a separate note, my weather station software is not interfacing with my WMR200 very nicely. I may need to shift to a new software. Messing with the weather station has used up my free time and limited my time for the blog. Hopefully, I will get it resolved soon.

Great Drought Outlook for Arizona!!!

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Jul 192012

This is the Drought Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. They posted it today, July 19, 2012. The good news is that for the outlook period, now through October 19, 2012, Arizona should see great improvement. The rest of the country isn’t looking as good.

Seasonal Drought Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center – July 19, 2012

Starting tomorrow and through early next week, thunderstorm activity will rise to a stable monsoonal level.

Tropical Distraction

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Jul 172012

Hurricanes and tropical storms can cause changes a thousand miles away. For the next couple days, Tropical Storm Fabio will distract our monsoon season by shifting the flow of winds in the area. Currently, Fabio is off the tip of the Baja Peninsula. His forecast is to move almost straight north toward California and die along the way as he hits cooler water.

Tropical Storm Fabio 5-day forecast map from Wunderground.com. 7-17-2012

As a result, the monsoonal flow will shift eastward into New Mexico. For the next few days, we will see a drier flow from the southwest. The monsoonal flow should shift over the weekend and possibly for much of next week, giving us a stormy pattern.

Flagstaff’s late monsoon season start

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Jul 082012

Here we are on July 8 and no real rainfall to show. Here is the month to date rainfall map for our area from rainlog.org. Flagstaff has missed out on the precipitation so far.

Month to date rainfall for our area from rainlog.org at the University of Arizona

Our dewpoint temperatures have oscillated and are currently down in the lower 30′s this morning. You can see my dew point temperature graph on the right sidebar. The good news is that the Climate Prediction Center continues to provide a wetter than average outlook for us. Below is a animation of the 6-10 day, 8-14-day, 1 month and 3 month outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center on Friday afternoon.

Animation of 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 1 month and 3 month precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center on July 6, 2012.

Although they predict a wetter pattern for us, there are two things to remember. First, monsoon seasons are hit or miss. We’ve been completely dry, but Prescott has had some nice rainfall totals. Second, El Nino is building. El Nino can cause winds to shear across the tropics and carry our moisture away shortening our monsoon season. Currently,the consensus predictions have this El Nino remaining weak. We can only wait and see.

This should be the week monsoons start

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Jul 012012

If you have been in Flagstaff for a while, you know that the 4th of July almost always marks the first serious rains of the monsoon season. Humidity should build quickly over the next few days. Along with the humidity, we should start to see thunderstorms start as well. From the dewpoint chart to the right, you can see that the first burst of humidity has busted. By mid-week, dewpoints will be back in the range for thunderstorms.

From the National Weather Service

...MONSOONAL WEATHER PATTERN TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK...

THE RECENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL END WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF AN
EASTERLY WAVE USHER A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH
ARIZONA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ONCE THE
MOISTURE ARRIVES...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP IT IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. DAILY
ROUNDS OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPS ON RECENTLY BURNED FORESTS...THE LACK OF
VEGETATION AND BAKED GROUND CAN EASILY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
WITHIN AND BELOW THE BURN SCARS. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK
FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING APPEARS TO BE GREATEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

Moisture arrives!

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Jun 252012

Overnight, moisture moved into the Flagstaff Area. The dewpoint temperature this morning is over 40 degrees.

This graph of dewpoint shows the aggressive increase in moisture overnight.

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Switzer Canyon, AZ

Switzer Canyon, Flagstaff, AZ
temp:	46.0 F (7.8 C)
humidity:	25%
wind:	From the North at 2.9 MPH Gusting to 5.4 MPH
pressure:	30.21" (1022.9 mb)
station:	KAZFLAGS23
hardware:	Oregon Scientific WMR-100a
updated:	May 23, 4:53 AM MST
local forecast