Jan 022010
 

Shark Oil Barometer on January 2, 2010

Shark Oil Barometer on January 2, 2010

Fore the first time in quite a while, the barometer has managed to clear itself. This matches the forecast for the next couple weeks. The Shark Oil Barometer has been hazy overnight, but crystal clear in the middle of the day. It looks like we will see sunny skies and near seasonable temperatures at least until after next weekend.

One caveat, I will be driving around the state a good deal next weekend. This would almost certainly guarantee some winter weather. I think it might snow Sunday afternoon in the Northland.

I am having issues with my webcam software. I hope to have it working soon.

 Posted by at 1:09 pm
Dec 282009
 

My weather station registered a low of 1.9F this morning. It looks like everyday since Christmas Eve has had a low in the single digits and a we haven’t had a high above 43F. Brrrrr…. Well, as some of you know I was basking in tropical sun with temperatures that rarely strayed from 80F. Ahhhh….

Looks like we are in for a little touch of snow the next couple days. But, perhaps more importantly, we are not going to see much change in temperatures until well after the first of the New Year. The next couple days might see higher overnight lows, in the teens, due to the clouds with the approaching waves between today and Wednesday. No single event will bring very much moisture.

After the snow, we are going back into the deep freeze with single digit temps. The Shark Oil Barometer is cloudy with big chunks making up the “Cloudiness.” Seems like chunks, versus hazy cloudiness might be more indicative of an approaching storm.

 Posted by at 8:59 am
Dec 182009
 

Looks like we are on the hook for cold nights and sunny days for a while. There is a small chance of snow next week, but it looks to be very small. There doesn’t look to be any break in site for the overnight temperatures being so cold. Still, the shark oil barometer never really changes back to clear after that last snow storm.

The bigger picture looks for a return to a southerly storm track over the next few weeks. That could continue for a while. Check out the 3 month outlook that was just updated by the Climate Prediction Center. This is what many would call the typical winter pattern for El Nino winters.

3-Month Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

3-Month Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

I will be less available over the next week as Christmas activities move in and take over. I am going to try to add some more mobile software to support blackberries and a whole new look to the site. It should be cleaner and more compact. Or, at least those are on my Christmas break list. If I get really aggressive, I will try to get a new algorithm going for calculating moon rise, set and phase for the main page.

 Posted by at 9:44 pm
Dec 122009
 

This seems odd to me. Most of the Moisture seemed to disappear from the models over last night and this morning. There is still some, but I am not sure about the upper ranges being predicted.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY.

* TIMING…SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING…BECOMING STEADY SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* WINDS…SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF TRAVELING…TAKE EMERGENCY SUPPLIES…INCLUDING WINTER
CLOTHING…FOOD…WATER…AND A FLASHLIGHT. FOR THE LATEST ROAD
CONDITIONS…CHECK THE ADOT FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT
WWW.AZ511.COM. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

 Posted by at 4:50 pm
Dec 112009
 

I have a specific request on what the Shark Oil Barometer has been indicating. It has been countinuously cloudy for the last week and a half, or so. I think the real test we have in the offing is whether is clears some after this coming weekend. The models are showing drier conditions after this weekend, and well into the holidays.

Hopefully, this weekend will bring enough snow for a holiday opening for Snowbowl. There is a good bit of variability in the models. The National Weather Service has been dead-on lately (Hat-Tip to them!). They are calling for an inch or two today and tomorrow, and 2-4″ with the weather system on Sunday.

The NOGAPS forecast is more aggressive with something in more of the 6-8 or 8-12 inch ranges for Sunday. It has varied between runs. See Picture below. Either way, I am going to try to get my snowblower back online!

One final note on Monday’s snow:

Statement as of 1:30 am MST on December 11, 2009
 ... Record snowfall for Flagstaff Airport on Dec 7 2009...
City (period of record) new record previous record/year
Flagstaff Airport (1898-2009) 20.1 inches 5.0 inches 1956
The Flagstaff Airport reported 20.1 inches of snowfall from midnight
to midnight on December 7th 2009. This was over four times the
previous record of 5.0 inches set in 1956. This also ties the
record for the 8th snowiest calendar day also set on February 24th
1987. The last time that it snowed more than 20.1 inches in one day
was februaray 24th 1987 when it snowed 21.1 inches.
These records are preliminary pending official reports.

Navy NOGAPS Precipitation Forecast for Sunday, 12-13-09

Navy NOGAPS Precipitation Forecast for Sunday, 12-13-09

 Posted by at 7:17 am
Nov 102009
 

It’s been fun to watch the massive variation in forecasts and models the last few days. Today, the storm previously forecasted for Thursday is vaporizing and being replaced by a weekend storm. This is based on the GFS model and the National Weather service forecasts. AccuWeather has added some rain back in on Thursday and is forecasting 5.1 inches of snow for Friday and Saturday. I think Thursday will probably bring mostly wind, again. The weekend is still shaking out.

I think the good news here is that there seems to be a southerly shift in the storm track.

Th Shark Oil Barometer has been remaining cloudy in the mornings, clearing by the middle of the day. I thin if it stays cloudy through the middle of the day, it may be signaling a storm.

 Posted by at 6:30 am
Oct 032009
 

Olaf’s remains appear to be headed quickly to the east on a path well to our south. Another low pressure system will drop down out of the northwest and move quickly to the east.

We might get a little rain and a lot of wind. Other forecasts call for more significant chances of rain. I don’t think we will see any.

There is a better chance for rain on Thursday. The shark oil barometer is cloudy this morning.

Shark Oil Barometer

Shark Oil Barometer

 Posted by at 10:14 am
Sep 182009
 

For the first time in months, the Shark Oil Barometer turned cloudy yesterday. It’s not as cloudy today. This is just another signal for the move to the winter storm patterns. Recently, the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of California and Mexico has warmed. At the same time, farther south near the equator, a weak El Nino is underway. I think both of these situations would enhance out precipitation outlook. The question is whether El Nino will hold, or not. More this weekend.

Shark Oil Barometer

Shark Oil Barometer

 Posted by at 6:40 am
Aug 092009
 

Personally, this is some of the finest August weather you could hope for if you want to get out and do things! Enjoy! Shark Oil Barometer is a little cloudy, again.

Another round of records last night…brrr.

Statement as of 9:40 am MST on August 09, 2009
... Record low temperatures for northern Arizona on Aug 09 2009...


New Low Previous Low Year
Bagdad 51 59 1949
Cottonwood-Tuzigoot 58 61 1999
Flagstaff 35 44 1999
Fort Valley
29 36 1988
Page 63 63 1967
These records are preliminary pending official reports.
 Posted by at 12:45 pm
Jul 232009
 

It looks like a fairly substantial amount of moisture, precipitable water, could move north out of Mexico to Arizona over the next few days. Then a shift back to drier conditions could emerge. The next few days should be like the last few, but maybe higher precip amounts.

The Shark Oil Barometer has been clear since the middle of June. Not even the slightest hint of cloudiness in it. Guess it isn’t much help with monsoon predictions.

 Posted by at 6:25 am
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