El Nino Outlook Faltering?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on El Nino Outlook Faltering?
Sep 212009

So, I have alluded to questions over the future of the current El Nino. There are two seriously differing camps. Unfortunately, it is falling along the hard core lines of human caused global warming(HCGW) believers and those that question human caused global warming. Jim Hansen, of NASA, is committed to Human Caused Global Warming. Given the significant cooling that has occurred since roughly 2001, he needs a big win, like another 1997-1998 Super El Nino.

As I mentioned over the weekend, a moderate El Nino is in place, with some holes. Those that question HCGW are pointing out that the future of this El Nino appears to be weaker with an early demise. Compared to the Super El Nino, the differences are large. Here is an excellent blog I recommend you read:  JPL’s Patzert: “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists”

Neither camp did great with the summer prediction, other than the questioners favoring a cool summer in the Eastern US. Time will tell.

I think this winter will be similar to the last few. If we have heavy snow fall, it will stick around for a long time. We will probably end up with average snowfall, overall. The sun will recover some, but will not return to the intensity of the last couple cycles. Those are my thoughts.

One last note; did you notice there is now more sea ice area in the Artic than this date in 2005?

 Posted by at 7:18 pm

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Apr 302009

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) is a cousin of El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO). It operates on a much longer, decadal, time scale. The temperatures of the Northern Pacific Ocean can be a big effect on Arizona’s Precipitation. It has been negative, or cool, for several years. Recently, it has moved more severely in that direction. Here is a recent article about it: The PDO’s influence on Climate Change: How low will it go? I think there is still a valuable question about how the sun’s current low output and activity will effect our precipitation in Northern Arizona. Could the combination of a cooling climate offset the cool phase PDO?

Well, for this weekend, it looks like we could get a little precip on Saturday and Sunday. Small amounts with a slight cooling trend.

Cool Summer Ahead

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Cool Summer Ahead
Apr 282009
Summer 2009 Prediction

Summer 2009 Prediction

This picture is a summary of previous analog years from Joe D’Aleo at Intellicast. The accompanying article can be found at ENSO Update. This analysis is based on analog years of solar activity and El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO).

If this summer is like the analog years, we could be looking at summer being a couple degrees below normal in Northern Arizona.

This outlook contrasts with the Climate Prediction Center‘s outlook below.

Climate Prediction Center Outlook May-July 2009

Climate Prediction Center Outlook May-July 2009

Ozone Holes and Cosmic Radiation

 Climate, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Ozone Holes and Cosmic Radiation
Mar 252009

For the brave, I would like to point out this article: Coorelation Between Cosmic Rays and Ozone Holes.

For everyone else, I recommend you learn a little more about ozone holes here: ICECAP

You may have to search for the article on the Icecap site. I’m not saying CFC’s are particularly good for everything, but shouldn’t we learn and decide?

Oh yeah, for Thursday, we get wind. Expect conditions similar to last weekend. Roar!

Finally, something to post

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Record, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Finally, something to post
Mar 182009

It looks like there will be a break in the warm, sunny weather. Most models are agreeing that there will be some precipitation this weekend. Most likely on Sunday in the Flagstaff area.

The entire southwest continues with near record warmth, while the northwest suffers exceptional cold.  From Oregon: Blame Sunspots for Cold Winter/Spring Weather

Still, Just Small Stuff on the Way

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Still, Just Small Stuff on the Way
Mar 112009

We are going to continue to see mostly warm and pleasant conditions around Flagstaff. A small amount of precipitation is forecasted on Thursday and Friday. It just doesn’t look like much and will probably fall as rain in Flag. Spring break week should be mostly beautiful after a small chance of rain early on.

On another topic, the sun continues to be dim and inactive. Here are a couple links that discuss what is going on. We are witnessing history.

Intellicast’s Joe D’Aleo has an over all summary: Sun Continues to Hibernate

This link covers the details around the multiple cycles that influence the sun: Clilverd – Solar Cycle 24

This link shows the agricultural effects as a result of the above: Solar Cycle 24 – Agricultural Effects

Constant Change

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather, Solar Activity  Comments Off on Constant Change
Mar 052009

Nothing seems to be converging. Any chance for signifcant precip keeps floating out farther into the future. Just some wind and cooler temps seem to be on tap.

But, in the meantime, here is a new article on solar influence: http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Willie_Soon-Its_the_Sun_Stupid.pdf.  Enjoy!

Mar 022009

The South and East would argue that it is the lion’s start to March. For us, at least til Friday, it may feel like the lamb. Here are yesterday’s records:

City (period of record) new high previous record/year
Flagstaff (1899 - 2009) 67 66 in 1921
Fort Valley (1909 - 2009) 64 64 (tied) in 1986
Greer (1917 - 2009) 71 60 in 2008
Petrified Forest (1931 - 2009) 73 72 in 2008
Springerville (1912 - 2009) 70 69 in 2008
Williams (1898 - 2009) 70 68 in 1910

Temperatures are going to be near record again today. Then, we are in for a change. Clouds and cooler temps are on the menu for the rest of the week. Seems like everyone and every model is seeing something in the Friday-Sunday time frame. The Nogaps model is showing a sizeable storm, but this model has missed this far out this season. The GFS model is showing something smaller on Friday. Other forecasts are mixed in between. A couple more storms are on the way beyond next weekend.

The Shark Oil Barometer has been mostly clear, until yesterday afternoon. Now, it is clouding up again.

Feb 062009

Here we go. I think we will get 8-12 inches of snow by Sunday night. The first wave tonight is going to be lean. The next wave, Saturday-Sunday, will be wetter. The Monday-Tuesday wave is looking like 12+ inches at this time. This wave will be quite windy, too. Temps are going to drop for this period. Brrr!

The Shark Oil Barometer is mostly cloudy this morning. It’s been building for a few days.

The storm door is open an will probably remain open for the next 10-14 days. Maybe the whole month. Here is a link that explains, in great and grave detail, how things are shaping up on a national level. Extremes of Cold and Snow

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