Both GFS and NoGAPS models are predicting a wet, continuously cooler week ahead. AccuWeather has predicted temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s for Thursday and Friday. The pattern from the last few days for Arizona has been more of a monsoonal flow. With the jet stream dropping down, Pacific storms moving from the west to the east will be responsible for the next few precipitation events.
US Navy NoGAPS model precipitation outlook for 6 hours, Thursday morning, October 6, 2011
NoGAPS and GFS models are in agreement with a wet start to the week. Then, they indicate a bit of a break on Wednesday before the big cold push on Thursday and Friday.
US Navy NoGAPS temperature outlook, 5am Friday, October 7, 2011
I haven’t done a big winter outlook this year. I think we could see a similar year to last year. We have a weak La Nina, a more active, but still anemic, Sun, and a generally cold Pacific. For the winter overall, it will probably be warmer than average, drier than average, with scatter times of heavy snow and very cold temperatures.