This morning the Climate Prediction Center issued a new 90-day precipitation outlook. All of Arizona is in the above average precipitation zone.
Looking out 2 weeks, you might think so. Today is the last day in the current forecasts and outlooks when Northern Arizona can strongly expect rain. The winds are going to shift back to a southwesterly origin and bring dry air. Below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The Climate Prediction Center issues new 30 and 90-day outlooks on Thursday.
As a side note, it looks more and more like El Nino is going to fail before it is up and running. I get in to that detail later. However, this probably isn’t the driver behind our monsoon season.
Ivo. Well, my iPad recognizes Ivo as a proper noun. Given the rain we expect Ivo to bring this weekend, I thought the name could be derived from some archaic rain god. Nope.
Meaning & History Germanic name, originally a short form of names beginning with the Germanic element iv meaning "yew". Alternative theories suggest that it may in fact be derived from a cognate Celtic element. This was the name of several saints (who are also commonly known as Saint Yves or Ives).
Anyway, the air is wet today. Moisture is already surging northward. The Valley of the Sun had heavy rains and lightning over night. It will be wetter tomorrow. It still looks like Tropical Storm Ivo will end our August drought.
According to the long-range outlooks and GFS model, an intense low pressure system(now identified as 94E) will move up the west coast of Mexico and bring plenty of moisture next Sunday and Monday. It’s still a long ways out, but the GFS model and the 6-10 day outlook predict above average precipitation. It has been consistent for several model runs.
The last GFS model had the bulk of the precipitation falling in western Arizona. It’s not a sure bet, yet.
Not the Model-T, but my very own weather forecasting model. Some of you may remember the intense accuracy it provided years ago. It just seems to work.Since I don’t have a super computer and years of training and education on developing models for predicting weather, the model has a lot of manual tweaks in it to get it to give decent output. I spend a considerable amount of time just figuring out the inputs and boundary conditions to make it work.
The GFS and NoGAPS models have output similar results to mine for this next week. But the results are inconsistent, run after run. So, I thought it was time to give my model a try. Here is the output. While not definitive and with some variability, my experience points to a reasonable likelihood of some snowfall this week. Unless you are me, you are probably silly to use my model. I would stick with the pros, but I feel pretty good about my historic knowledge. There is a good chance of snow this week. My forecast doesn’t match anything else out there.
If you are a serious meteorologist, you should express no interest in the details of how I work this thing, but you can still send me an email (email@example.com) and ask. It is a curiosity.
Looks like the NoGAPs model failed. The current storm track is far to the north. Instead, the Pacific Northwest is getting pretty beat up. The GFS model is forecasting a more southern route for the storm track starting with next week. We will see if that sticks.
This week’s weather will be mostly beautiful! Enjoy!
Sorry for missing the first real accumulation of snow for the year. But, I was basking in tropical sunlight last week. Ahhhh.
Early next week we could receive another round of snow, depending on which forecast model is correct. The NoGAPs model forecast precipitation for Northern Arizona on Monday morning. The Navy’s model project a quarter to a half-inch of precipitation for the Flagstaff Area.
However, this doesn’t match the outlook from the GFS Model at NOAA. This model projects the moisture from the same storm misses Northern Arizona.
Which model is better tuned for this year? Of the forecast websites I routinely use, none are forecasting rain or snow on Monday. We’ll have to wait and see.
Just when I condemn us to a dry spring, the GFS and NoGAPs Models align around a storm for next week. It’s unusual for both models to align at long time points. In the current case, both are predicting a significant storm around next Wednesday or Thursday. NoGAPs predicts the storm’s arrival 6-12 hours earlier than GFS. We will see.
We have wind on tap for the next few days
Both GFS and NoGAPS models are predicting a wet, continuously cooler week ahead. AccuWeather has predicted temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s for Thursday and Friday. The pattern from the last few days for Arizona has been more of a monsoonal flow. With the jet stream dropping down, Pacific storms moving from the west to the east will be responsible for the next few precipitation events.
NoGAPS and GFS models are in agreement with a wet start to the week. Then, they indicate a bit of a break on Wednesday before the big cold push on Thursday and Friday.
I haven’t done a big winter outlook this year. I think we could see a similar year to last year. We have a weak La Nina, a more active, but still anemic, Sun, and a generally cold Pacific. For the winter overall, it will probably be warmer than average, drier than average, with scatter times of heavy snow and very cold temperatures.
Tropical Storm Hilary isn’t going to make it to Arizona. But, we will get a fresh shot of monsoonal flow out of the south. I don’t think we will see large amounts over the Northland. We could see strong thunderstorms and all their elements; wind, hail, etc.
Next up is cooler temperatures and a break from the recent, highly nice, unseasonably warm temperatures. The look out for the next two weeks has turned to colder forecasts. The National Weather Service has posted a nice slide today discussing the threat of frost and the average date of frost for multiple locations in Northern Arizona. We are clearly in the zone. Here is my post on Fall Freeze Probabilities.
Also, somewhere over the horizon another storm system will brush Arizona. But, this doesn’t look like the long-term trend. Unfortunately,a mostly dry, winter weather pattern could be taking a set.