Dec 122017
 

Hoffnung entspringt der Ewigkeit. (Hope springs eternal)

There continues to be a chance for at least a bit of snow around Christmas time. Although, still two weeks away, the computer models keep putting in a storm the weekend before. And, as a special treat, there is a storm a day or two after, too. Hopefully, this will break down the storm door and change up the winter for a while.

I’m still not sure I buy it. But, Hopefully, it will be a very snowy week!

I told you not to read this post.

Predicted snow/rain for the morning of Saturday, September 23, 2017 from the GFS Model. (at Tropicaltidbits.com)

Forecasted snow and rain for the morning of Saturday, September 23, 2017 from the GFS Model. at Tropicaltidbits.com.

 

Forecasted rain and snow on Tuesday Evening, December 26, 2017 from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Forecasted rain and snow on Tuesday Evening, December 26, 2017 from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

 Posted by at 12:58 pm

Another Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or just La Nina

 El Nino/La Nina, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Another Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or just La Nina
Dec 052017
 

JJ challenged me to comment on Facebook about a post from WeatherWest.com about the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge from a few years back. This was the weather system that gave California a long drought, and robbed Arizona of a good El Nino winter. The blob of warm water disappeared and the ridge went with it. I still think it is not clear which came first the ridge or the blob. Yada, yada, yada…Here is what the global sea surface temperatures looked like back then.

Global sea surface temperature anomaly animation, August 5, 2015. From Climate Prediction Center.

Global sea surface temperature anomaly animation, August 5, 2015. From Climate Prediction Center.

This winter, things look different.

Global sea surface temperatures and anomalies, November 29, 2017. (From the Climate Prediction Center.)

Global sea surface temperatures and anomalies, November 29, 2017. (From the Climate Prediction Center.)

First, look at the cold blue water off the Pacific coast of South America. A significant La Nina is underway this year. Typically, La Ninas make Arizona warmer and drier than average, where as El Ninos make it warmer and wetter. (Notice how everything makes it warmer? hmm.)

Now, look at the difference in off the Pacific coast North America. The blob is the more northern of the two red zones. Today, it is replaced by a cold patch. Off the SoCal coast is a diffuse warm region.

In short, now looks nothing like back then.

This winter is probably going to continue mostly dry. After 7-8 years of repeatedly above average precipitation for Northern Arizona, we are sadly due for a dry spell. Still a single break in the action can turn that frown, upside down. That break is not in sight. The likelihood of a White Christmas is very low.

The East Coast is in for a very cold December.

 Posted by at 12:00 pm

Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff

 Northern Arizona Weather, Record, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Big Christmas Snow Hits Flagstaff
Dec 252016
 

December 24, 2016 set a new record for snow fall at 10.1 inches it beats the old record of 4 inches in 1914. White Christmases are rare!

Merry Christmas to all!

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1220 AM MST Sun Dec 25 2016

…Snowfall Reports as of 12 AM MST Sunday December 25th…

Location Amount Time/Date
Flagstaff Airport                     10.1 in 1200 AM 12/25
Bellemont (NWS)                   10.1 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescot                      10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                     10.0 in 1100 PM 12/24
Mountainaire                            9.5 in 0736 PM 12/24
Parks                                           8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Kachina Village                         8.5 in 0700 PM 12/24
Flagstaff (Industrial Par         8.0 in 0800 PM 12/24
3 WNW Prescott                       7.0 in 0836 PM 12/24
1 S Prescott Valley                    6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Prescott Valley                          6.0 in 1045 PM 12/24
Bagdad                                        5.0 in 0900 PM 12/24
2 SE Pinetop-Lakeside             4.5 in 0746 PM 12/24
Grand Canyon Village              4.5 in 1030 PM 12/24
Doney Park                                 4.5 in 0745 PM 12/24
1 WSW Uptown Sedona           4.0 in 1130 PM 12/24
4 W Chino Valley                       4.0 in 0823 PM 12/24
1 W Heber-Overgaard               2.5 in 0749 PM 12/24
3 N Mcnary                                 2.5 in 0835 PM 12/24
Payson                                         2-4 in 1100 PM 12/24
1 WSW Seligman 2.0 in 0451 PM 12/24

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

 Posted by at 5:43 am
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