stu

Looks like the weather pattern has changed.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Looks like the weather pattern has changed.
Feb 172018
 
8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on Saturday, February 17, 2018.

I’ve been occupied preparing for an upcoming trip the last few days. As a result I haven’t written about the pattern shift that has happened. It’s not going to be super wet all the time, but the outlook is improving.

First, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Flagstaff. Sunday night through Monday, Flagstaff should receive 2-6 inches of snow. As always, local effects could lead to higher or lower amounts.

Second, March could roar into Flagstaff. The GFS longest range outlooks consistently include a strong winter storm. This storms brings as much as 1 inches of water to Flagstaff. If it stays in the forecast, it could be a major storm.

I’m going to be out of touch for the next two weeks. I’ll post a picture or two when I get back. We’ll see how things turn out.

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on Saturday, February 17, 2018.

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on Saturday, February 17, 2018.

 

 Posted by at 7:43 pm

Wet Relief on the Way

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wet Relief on the Way
Jan 082018
 
Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Monday night through Wednesday afternoon, the storm door will open and allow both rain and snow into Flagstaff. It will be a very wet storm. It could bring as much as 1.5 inches of water to the Northland. Unfortunately, snow will be limited, and the next storm won’t make it through until about 2 weeks later. California’s and southwestern Colorado’s mountains will get considerable snow accumulations.

Total water precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Total water precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

 

Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

 Posted by at 12:03 pm

Finally, Snow!

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Finally, Snow!
Jan 042018
 
24-hour snowfall totals for Wednesday, January 10, 2018. (From TropicalTidbits.com)

The GFS Model finally has snow in the outlook for next week!!! I’m still doubtful. The last couple model runs had next to nothing in the forecast.

24-hour snowfall totals for Wednesday, January 10, 2018. (From TropicalTidbits.com)

 Posted by at 10:12 am

Change within a week. I remain doubtful.

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Change within a week. I remain doubtful.
Jan 022018
 
6-10 day precipitation outlook for January 8-12 from the Climate Prediction Center.

Since my last post, the GFS and NAVGEM model have been indicating a change in the storm pattern. They don’t always match on the intensity and timing. One thing that seems to be consistent is mostly rain, not snow, falling. The temperatures will remain elevated for Arizona.

Currently, there is little chance for something this weekend. A considerable chance for something around the middle of next week. The strongest chance is around the following weekend. Of course, it’s the farthest out, which reduces the probability of it becoming a reality. The Climate Prediction Center sums it up nicely in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The very dark greens moved into the 6-10 day outlook yesterday. I hope it’s real and it’s snow.

One thought: Since it’s been mostly warm and dry. It might be a good time to recheck your winter readiness. Your clothes, your car, your home…etc.

6-10 day precipitation outlook for January 8-12 from the Climate Prediction Center.

6-10 day precipitation outlook for January 8-12 from the Climate Prediction Center.

 

8-14 day precipitation outlook for January 10-16 from the Climate Prediction Center.

8-14 day precipitation outlook for January 10-16 from the Climate Prediction Center.

 Posted by at 11:17 pm

Just a bit more than a week away…again

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Just a bit more than a week away…again
Dec 292017
 
12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)

As if to make my point from my last post, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center now have a significant shift in the precipitation outlook. In other words, in a bit more than a week, precipitation could fall.

Precipitation outlooks, 6-10 and 8-14 day, from the Climate Prediction Center on December 29, 2017.

Precipitation outlooks, 6-10 and 8-14 day, from the Climate Prediction Center on December 29, 2017.

This could make sense. The recent move of cold air to the eastern US is a big shift in pressure systems. The current outlook also has it staying in place, more or less, during this time frame. This could be the kick in the pants needed. However, this would also keep warm temperatures in Arizona. Which leads to a bit of a problem.

12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)

12 Hour precipitation total for the morning of January 9, 2018. (From the GFS Model at TropicalTidbits.com)

The GFS model is showing rain, not snow. These outlooks have been very unreliable for the last month. I continue to have a dubious view of long range outlooks during holiday times. On the other hand, the US Navy’s NAVGEM (NoGaps) model also shows the high pressure breaking down at the end of next week, potentially opening the storm door. The alignment of the two models is promising.

I feel like this post is a roller coaster. Kinda like the long-range outlooks.

 Posted by at 10:27 pm

Do Not Read This White Christmas Post!!!

 Northern Arizona Weather, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Do Not Read This White Christmas Post!!!
Dec 122017
 

Hoffnung entspringt der Ewigkeit. (Hope springs eternal)

There continues to be a chance for at least a bit of snow around Christmas time. Although, still two weeks away, the computer models keep putting in a storm the weekend before. And, as a special treat, there is a storm a day or two after, too. Hopefully, this will break down the storm door and change up the winter for a while.

I’m still not sure I buy it. But, Hopefully, it will be a very snowy week!

I told you not to read this post.

Predicted snow/rain for the morning of Saturday, September 23, 2017 from the GFS Model. (at Tropicaltidbits.com)

Forecasted snow and rain for the morning of Saturday, September 23, 2017 from the GFS Model. at Tropicaltidbits.com.

 

Forecasted rain and snow on Tuesday Evening, December 26, 2017 from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Forecasted rain and snow on Tuesday Evening, December 26, 2017 from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

 Posted by at 12:58 pm

I don’t believe it, but what the heck!

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on I don’t believe it, but what the heck!
Dec 092017
 

Is there a chance for a White Christmas? Yes, but I seriously doubt it for this year in Flagstaff.

But wait! Look what popped into the longer range computer model for the Friday before Christmas.

Twelve hour average precipitation rate for Friday Morning, December 22, 2017. (GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits.)

Twelve hour average precipitation rate for Friday Morning, December 22, 2017. (GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits.)

It looks pleasantly blue, but those are low precipitation rates, which could lead to a nice whitening effect. I recommend not looking at any weather forecast for the next week and a half so that you can enjoy the possibility of snow just before Christmas.

 Posted by at 1:21 am

Will it ever truly snow this winter? Will Stu ever blog again?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Will it ever truly snow this winter? Will Stu ever blog again?
Nov 262017
 

Probably, and yes.

Hello everyone. Sorry for the long break between posts. As previously, I’ve been occupied with being in Europe. More on that some other time.

I have been watching the development of the winter. I typically become more fixated on winter storms, and not so much on winter droughts.

This winter is a La Nina winter. Colder than normal waters have built along the equator in the Pacific, from South America to the west. This usually means a warm, dry winter for Arizona, as the storm track keeps farther to the north.

Currently, the computer models have been showing this might breakdown in early December. How ever, there are two caveats I would put forward. First, these models have been run over the long, holiday weekend. Second, the storm track is widely varying between computer model runs. This makes for a doubtful outlook.

If you go with this morning’s outlook, Flagstaff could receive 6-12 inches of snow sometime around December 4. This could still be a warm storm with rain and other mixed precipitation. By December 4, I will be in Munich. In Munich, the weather outlook is much the same, but darker, with a low hanging sun and a full hour less sunlight.

Total snowfall through 6 December, 2017. (From the GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits)

Total snowfall through 6 December, 2017. (From the GFS Model at Tropical Tidbits)

 Posted by at 6:56 am

Monsoon season to start in earnest next weekend

 Climate, El Nino/La Nina, Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Monsoon season to start in earnest next weekend
Jul 022017
 
Dew point temperature outlook for Saturday afternoon, July 8, 2017, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

In June, there have already been several thunderstorms and rain showers. But, a sustained monsoonal flow has been mostly absent. Dew point temperatures will rise throughout the week, with most Arizona being in the mid-40s by next weekend.

Dew point temperature outlook for Saturday afternoon, July 8, 2017, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Dew point temperature outlook for Saturday afternoon, July 8, 2017, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

While isolated thunderstorms would be come more frequent this week, next saturday is the first day that seems to have pretty good areal coverage.

24-hour total rainfall forecast for next Saturday, July 8, 2017, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

24-hour total rainfall forecast for next Saturday, July 8, 2017, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

One last note, the start of the season should be strong. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show above average precipitation. The longer range 1 and 3 month outlooks only show normal precipitation chances. I think these may change the next time they are run since the El Niño outlook has a decreased likelihood of it occurring this year.

6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

 

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Predication Center.

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Predication Center.

 Posted by at 9:13 am

Unsettled weather could delay fire season

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Unsettled weather could delay fire season
May 042017
 

Next Tuesday through Thursday, a low pressure system is currently in the forecast to move across Northern Arizona. It should bring considerable water, but spread across the three day period. That should help with fire season after several weeks with high winds.

I don’t write much about the spring winds. The driving force is the passage of storms north of Arizona. We get the winds. Utah gets the rain. This storm is dropping farther to the south, so we get the rain this time. Over an inch could fall across Flagstaff and surrounding areas above the Mogollon Rim. There could be large gaps in time where no rain falls. Also, it is a cut-off low pressure system, which means there is high variability in the forecast.

60-hour total precipitation from the GFS model, ending Thursday, May 11, 2017.

60-hour total precipitation from the GFS model, ending Thursday, May 11, 2017.

 Posted by at 8:04 pm
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