Tuesday night, we should start to receive snow fall as another cold winter storm rolls into town. This storm looks like the last one. We could see several inches with this next storm. After a warm weekend, our temperatures are going to fall back below normal.
This storm will be drawing moisture up from around the Hawaiian Islands, across California to us. Snow totals could be significant. More tonight or in the morning.
I think there are good explanations about why our forecasts was so off this weekend. For me, it starts with me growing dependence on the computer models. I haven’t been looking at the data about the real weather as much as I used to. The models are usually pretty darn good. So, I didn’t look to see how much water content was coming our way.
Water vapor satellite image. Orange indicates areas of dryness. Greens and blues indicate moisture
Still I might have missed it here. Notice how much orange, dry air is south and west of us. These areas are typically our moisture supply in the winter. For this weekend, our moisture has come from the north and west; Nevada and Utah. I this that might have thrown me. I need to keep looking at data like this.
The next problem I should have considered on Friday. If you read my post from Friday morning, you’ll notice that I pointed out that a single, high-resolution model had over an inch of water for us. When massive storms happen, especially in heavily populated areas, the National Weather Service focuses their time, energy and computer models on those storms. The model that had the accurate prediction of lots of water, focuses only on the Western United States. National forecasters can be distracted while the strong nor’easter hit New England. The National Weather Service tweaks their models to give better detail at times of concern like this. It also means that less populated areas, like the Desert Southwest, get less attention and less accurate forecasts. They may disagree, but it seems real.
Here is the latest 48-hour total precipitation forecast from the high-resolution model I mentioned before.
ARW high-resolution precipitation model for 48 hours.
We are in for a lot more snow and very cold wintry conditions for the next few days. Between now and Monday evening, we are looking at 6-18 inches depending on luck and location. Some places will see more that this. Notice that this storm leaves areas south of the Mogollon Rim mostly dry. This points back to the moisture coming from the northwest.
Sorry for missing this one.
Sometime today, Friday, rain should start to fall. The rain will become snow. The snow will continue all weekend. Should be a good weekend to curl up by the fire. Compared to the big storm hitting New England, our storm will be minor. By the end of it, we could have 6 inches. Where Boston will see 2-3 inches per hour, we will see 2-3 inches per day as our top snowfall rate. Locally, it can always be heavier.
Then, we go back into the deep freeze with single digit temperatures for lows. I had hoped for a warmer February. The sunny warmth has been a pleasure the lease week or so.
Just a note, one of the high-resolution models is calling for over an inch of water precipitation in the next 48 hours. I doubt it, but that would make things more interesting.
January 2013 was exceptionally cold and wet. It was the 16th coldest January since 1898. The 6th coldest since 1950. It was just Flagstaff, Prescott and Winslow were cold and wet, too.
While 2012 was a warm year by recent standards, the longer term temperature trend doesn’t look as warm and toasty.
The good news is that it looks like February will be warmer than average.
We just wrapped up the coldest January since 1979. The 6th coldest since 1950. Last month was half a degree colder than 2008. More on that this weekend on how this affects the long-term trends.
Unfortunately, the storms that were on tap for this weekend and early next week have vaporized. We may have some clouds and flurries over the weekend. Otherwise, we are looking at mild conditions for a few days.
In a rare event for this year, both the GFS model from NOAA and the NoGAPS model from the US Navy have aligned around a strong storm moving across Arizona next Tuesday. For a 6-7 day time point, they haven’t been very well aligned this winter.
Here is the NoGAPS model for 6 hours of precipitation ending next Wednesday morning. It shows about 3/4 of an inch of water.
US Navy NoGAPs precipitation model for 6 hours, ending Wednesday morning, February 6, 2013
Here is the NOAA GFS model for 24 hours ending Tuesday evening.
NOAA GFS model for 24 hour precipitation, ending Tuesday evening, February 5, 2013
This model show over 3/4 of an inch of water, too. The timing is off by a few hours in each model. This weekend, we will see only a weak storm. Next week, we will see wetter conditions.I’m still not sure if we will get rain or snow.
But the real story yesterday was the pathetic condition of our roads in Flagstaff. The ice in the morning caused hundreds of near misses, plenty of car accidents and a number of slips and falls with injuries. Everything was wet, then the temperature dropped. I was out and about at just before 5 am and couldn’t believe I didn’t see a single salt or cinder truck in town. Same at 6:30 am. After 7am they started to show up. Where the heck were they? The city just isn’t supplying the service they have in the past.
What was the school system thinking? Not even a two-hour delay? Ever seen the rear end of a school bus start to slip and head straight for your car? Enough of the ranting.
The 6-14 day outlooks seem to keep the moisture coming to us. I think temperatures might be similar to last weekend and much of this could fall as rain. The first round will be late this weekend and may only bring light precipitation amounts.
6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center
8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
Clouds and rain are on tap through the weekend. Cooler temperatures and snow are coming early next week. We should end the month well below normal for the month.
Most of the precipitation will be rain for the next 48 hours. We could receive over a half-inch of rain, with locally higher amounts up to one inch.
48 hour precipitation through Sunday morning
After this first storm moves out, a second storm will drop in for the north and bring cooler temperatures and snow. This storm will bring several inches of snow from Sunday night through Tuesday night. This storm will leave us with below normal temperatures to end the month.
48 hour precipitation, Sunday night to Tuesday night.
Yesterday seemed absolutely beautiful and warm. Back to reality, the average temperature for the day was a single degree above normal. But, it was the first time in January that temperatures were above normal. For January, we are still 9 degrees below normal. There is good news and bad news with this warming trend.
The good news is near normal temperatures. The bad news is that the first storm system to move through at the end of this week and into the weekend will be warm. Snow levels will be high. Flagstaff will probably get rain, not snow. The first round won’t bring much moisture to Flagstaff. The moisture will scoot around to the west and east of us.
The second round will hit on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This storm will be cooler and wetter. We will go back into the cold temperatures for this storm. Flagstaff could receive several inches of snow.
This week we should finally break out to above normal temperatures. Even though temperatures were higher over the weekend, the cold lows in the single digits left us 5-7 degrees below average for the daily mean temperature. For the month to date, our average temperature is more than 10 degrees below normal. This should move higher through the rest of the month.
Looking out a week from now, a wet storm system could move across Arizona. The pattern may start to break down late this week, with the main event being at the end of the month.
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