Stu

Oct 062014
 

The remnants of Hurricane Simon are on their way to Arizona. The big question is still around which path he will take. The Navy NoGAPs computer model has the bulk of the storm going to the west and north of Flagstaff. The GFS model has the storm going to the south and east of Flagstaff. Which way will he go?

You can see the subtle differences in the two models below. The National Weather Service’s chances of rain peak at 50% right. Wunderground peaks at 80%. Accuweather is forecasting rain and thunderstorms. I think we are going to get wet. I think we need to keep an eye on this storm because it can bring heavy rain and flooding…again.

6 hour precipitation outlook at 48 hours from the US Navy's NoGaps model.

6 hour precipitation outlook at 48 hours from the US Navy’s NoGAPs model.

6 hour precipitation outlook at 48 hours from the National Weather Service's GFS model.

6 hour precipitation outlook at 48 hours from the National Weather Service’s GFS model.

 Posted by at 5:27 pm
Oct 042014
 

Something new for my blog readers. I’m going to occasionally add reviews for product that are weather related to my blog. First up is the new WR-299 Weather Radio. Please watch the video for details.

This is a great compact emergency weather radio that offers AM/FM and Weather bands. It also have an Alert Mode to let you know when severe weather is on the way. The WR-299 has multiple power options:

*Solar Charger
*Hand Crank Charger
*USB Charger
*AAA batteries

It can also be used to charge your iPhone or other smart device. The speaker is clean and crisp. I can’t believe how good the sound is coming out for such an inexpensive radio.

The flash light is bright and will easily guide you through the dark.

This is an excellent addition to my Lake Powell kit.

 Posted by at 2:19 pm
Sep 302014
 

I’ve struggled the last few days with a broken internet connection, malfunctioning iPhone and a rainy weekend. The weekend struggle was the wonderful malaise that can hit Arizonans when it rains all day. Nonetheless, the Climate Prediction Center issued new outlooks for October and the 3-month period October to December.

The outlooks point to El Nino developing. I’m still not sure this is a reasonable expectation. Last spring and early summer, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator appeared headed for a strong El Nino. Unfortunately, the trade-winds did not shift to support it and the sea surface temperatures fell. There is another burst of warm water headed towards Peru now. If the winds shift, we will have El Nino conditions and a high likelihood of a wet winter. If they don’t shift, we will see La Nada neutral conditions(I think this is what will happen). Here is NOAA’s narrative about the outlooks:

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS WITH THE LIKELY TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN AND 
WINTER. A WEAK EL NINO EVENT IS MOST PROBABLE, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF 
EITHER A MODERATE EVENT OR CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO WINTER. A 
STRONG EL NINO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS YEAR. MOST DYNAMICAL AND 
STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION (170W TO 120W LONGITUDE AND 5S TO 5N 
LATITUDE) INDICATE A WEAK EL NINO (+0.5C TO +0.9C) WITH PEAK ANOMALIES IN THE 
EARLY WINTER.

 

Here are the outlooks:

One-month precipitation outlook for October 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center

One-month precipitation outlook for October 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center

Three-month precipitation outlook for October- December 2014  from the Climate Predicction Center.

Three-month precipitation outlook for October- December 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center.

 Posted by at 7:10 am
Sep 272014
 

A strong cold front is crossing Arizona from west to east today. While the moisture is coming from the south, the cold front is a winter weather phenomenon for Arizona. We are expecting fast-moving thunderstorms with heavy rain and other severe weather. This is reminiscent of the storms on October 6, 2010.

The National Weather Service isn’t taking any chances. They have posted severe weather watches and warnings. Check their website for updates.

 

Weather Story from the National Weather Service (Septemer 27, 2014)

Weather Story from the National Weather Service (Septemer 27, 2014)

 Posted by at 7:02 am
Sep 162014
 

I have zoomed in and cropped the image below. There is still a pronounced boundary to the heavy precipitation area. The precipitation scale is the same as in the earlier image in my last post. This is from a shorter range, high-resolution model. I think Flagstaff ends up in the 3/4 to 1 inch range. Notice that another boundary is forming along I-40 to the east. Stay tuned! There will be areas of Arizona receiving large amounts of precipitation over the next few days.

Cropped 72-hour total precipitation forecast from the North American Mesoscale computer model by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. 16 September, 2014.

Cropped 72-hour total precipitation forecast from the North American Mesoscale computer model by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. 16 September, 2014.

 Posted by at 6:49 am
Sep 152014
 

Watching the GFS animation for the next 7 days this morning, I noticed a curious flow in the precipitation pattern. This flow reminded me of our last interaction with the remnants of a hurricane. Hurricane Norbert’s moisture missed us by traveling barely south of us. Next up for us are the remnants of Hurricane Odile. Currently, Odile is hitting Baja Mexico. Model predictions call for Odile’s moisture to move across most of Arizona. But, this morning’s GFS model for NOAA shows that a thin line might separate seriously wet areas from damp areas. We will have to keep watching to see where the water goes.

In the image below, I have added a yellow arrow to show the movement of precipitation. There is a large difference in the amounts to the southeast of the line and to the northwest of the line.

5-day total precipitation from the GFS model. Yellow arrow added for emphasis.

5-day total precipitation from the GFS model. Yellow arrow added for emphasis.

 Posted by at 6:34 am
Sep 112014
 

The newest 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks show wet conditions continuing. We should be dry today and Friday. There is a chance for showers over the weekend and into early next week. Sometime in the second half of next week, tropical storm, soon hurricane, Odile will deliver more moisture to Arizona.

8-14 day precipitation outlook form the Climate Prediction Center, September 10, 2014.

8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, September 10, 2014.

5-day outlook for Tropical Storm Odile. From wunderground.com, September 11, 2014.

5-day outlook for Tropical Storm Odile. From wunderground.com, September 11, 2014.

 Posted by at 6:28 am
Sep 092014
 

Mother nature decided to blow the forecast away. There was a ton of moisture in Arizona’s atmosphere. Below is an image from Intellicast.com that shows an estimate of daily precipitation based on radar imagery. If you compare this image to from the National Weather Service, you can see that things didn’t turn out to forecast. The bulk of the moisture hit to the south of Flagstaff. The dry area shifted much farther to the west from the forecast in that image. Still for the summer we are way ahead on precipitation. Also, it doesn’t look like the monsoon season is quite finished, yet.

Estimated daily precipitation based on radar. From Intellicast.com.

Estimated daily precipitation based on radar. From Intellicast.com.

Weather Story from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

Weather Story from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

 Posted by at 6:51 am
Sep 062014
 

Norbert comes to town! 2.7 inches of possible rain for Flagstaff through Tuesday.

Hot off the presses from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff:

Weather Story from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

Weather Story from the National Weather Service in Flagstaff

 Posted by at 1:10 pm
Sep 052014
 

We will be entering another wet period this weekend. It will last through the first half of next week. The moisture is a result of an Eastern Pacific hurricane named Norbert. Norbert is tracking up the west coast of Baja Mexico. This morning, Norbert is west of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Below is an animated GIF of the GFS Model for the next 4 days. It shows 24-hour predicted precipitation in daily intervals. You can see Norbert in the animation. He’s bringing plenty of moisture to Arizona.

Animation of 24-hour total precipitation, September 5-9, 2014. (GFS Model, NCEP Central Operations)

Animation of 24-hour total precipitation, September 5-9, 2014. (GFS Model, NCEP Central Operations)

 Posted by at 6:46 am
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