Weather is always odd

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Weather is always odd
Aug 112016
 

As the most recent batch of moisture, which was left over from a tropical system, starts to leave Arizona, the outlooks have switched. We still have a dry period ahead, but then more moisture will return in about a week. At least, it looks that way today.

Yesterday, NOAA increased it’s outlook for Atlantic hurricane activity for the rest of this season. As if to point out who’s in charge, the computer models and Mother Nature removed any hint of future development in the next two weeks. Still, we are in the season and tropical activity can spin our monsoon season any which way. Hurricanes affect the weather for thousands of miles. With none in the plans, after the upcoming dry spell, thunderstorms should make a comeback.

To date in August, the Flagstaff Airport has received 2.32 inches of rain. an average or above average month is at hand. By comparison, Munich has received nearly 3 inches in August, and close to 11 inches in the last 30 days.

 Posted by at 9:35 pm

Don’t get too used to being dry

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t get too used to being dry
Aug 062016
 

With July finishing nearly on average for precipitation and over two inches falling already in August, the next few days should be mostly drier. But, don’t get used to it. I think the current break in the action is due to a couple of tropical systems moving around Southern and Central Mexico. These have shutdown […]

 Posted by at 9:52 pm

Strong precipitation outlook for the next month

 Models, Monsoon, Outlooks  Comments Off on Strong precipitation outlook for the next month
Jul 222016
 

The Climate Prediction Center released new 6-1o day, 8-14 day and 1 month outlooks on Thursday. Even though Flagstaff’s July precipitation is half of normal for this point in the month, the next month of the monsoon season should be above average. Below is an animation of these outlooks. Tweet

 Posted by at 8:40 am

After a long sigh, the monsoonal flow will return

 Monsoon  Comments Off on After a long sigh, the monsoonal flow will return
Jul 162016
 

It’s been chilly an draining in most of Europe for the last few weeks. It’s been warm and dry for a couple of weeks in Northern Arizona. Thunderstorm activity will increase over the next few days and hopefully continue for most of the rest of the month. I think I mentioned July 19th in my […]

 Posted by at 12:04 pm

Strong start, but now the monsoonal flow will stall

 Hurricane, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Strong start, but now the monsoonal flow will stall
Jul 022016
 

With over 1.25 inches of rain since June 15, Flagstaff has enjoyed a strong start to the monsoon season. However, that will change. A series of strong, Eastern Pacific tropical storms far to the south are going to distract the moisture flow. These storms are not going to head northward along the coast. The current […]

 Posted by at 10:25 pm

Thunderstorm season to start early and with a boom

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Thunderstorm season to start early and with a boom
Jun 252016
 

We all know that the 4th of July is the typical “start” of monsoon season in Northern Arizona. So, anything earlier in my mind is early. As I sit in Munich and enjoy an even thunderstorm and a cool (not cold) weißbier, the computer models are telling me it is going to start very wet. […]

 Posted by at 9:32 am

Wet Outlook for Monsoon Season Start

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Wet Outlook for Monsoon Season Start
Jun 222016
 

With the already wetter than normal June (over half an inch above average), the start of the monsoon season should be wetter and earlier than average. Yesterday’s rain in the Flagstaff area is just a taste. It should dry out one more time before next week. While the 1-4 week outlooks all call for above […]

 Posted by at 6:31 pm

One More False Start

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on One More False Start
Jun 182016
 

I mentioned to a few people I saw in Flagstaff yesterday that I thought there was a chance the monsoon season would start in earnest next week. The warm/hot temperatures we will experience over the next few days will drive formation of the thermal low pressure system in southwestern Arizona. (Visit my Monsoon Mechanics website […]

 Posted by at 6:33 am

Partly cool, with a chance of an early monsoon season?

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Partly cool, with a chance of an early monsoon season?
Jun 072016
 

I’m still not sure I believe what is showing up in the computer models and forecasts. Although, it makes sense. It looks like a burst of monsoonal moisture is one its way for this weekend and next week. One week out, the forecast is calling for cooler, possibly below normal temperatures, and thunderstorms. The current […]

 Posted by at 8:59 am

Spring and summer finally emerge

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Spring and summer finally emerge
May 282016
 

To date, May has been chilly and wet. Flagstaff is ahead of average on precipitation by over an inch, and on temperature by 3.7 degrees. The average daily high has only by 62.2 degrees, which is 6 degrees below normal. I look at the month and maybe a bit deeper in this El Nino compared […]

 Posted by at 9:59 pm
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