Jul 312014

For the next four days, some of the forecasts and the computer models show as much as an 1.5-2 inches of rain for parts of Northern Arizona. This will give us a good start to August. The scope of the precipitation over the next few days isn’t reflected in every forecast. Some, like the NOAA’s Graphical forecast and the National Weather Service’s forecast seem much drier and warmer. For instance, if you are heading to Lake Powell, I expect Sunday will be cooler(everyone may not think high 80s, low 90s are cool) and wetter compared to normal.

Looking deeper into August, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have dry conditions moving into Arizona. Dry period during a reasonably wet monsoon season isn’t unusual. Later today, the Climate Prediction Center should issue a new 30-day outlook. The question is whether or not the long-range outlook will continue to forecast above average precipitation.

North American Mesoscale Model of four day total precipitation. (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 31 July 2014)

North American Mesoscale Model of four-day total precipitation. (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, 31 July 2014)


 Posted by at 6:40 am

Dew points to fall, but hope for a week in the future

Starting today, the dew point temperature is going to fall. By this weekend, our dew point temperature will be in the 20s. This is well below the damp 50+ dew point temperatures we need for good thunderstorm activity.  But, the moisture should build back into the region by early next week. Below are the dew [...]

Is the monsoon season over?

Looking out 2 weeks, you might think so. Today is the last day in the current forecasts and outlooks when Northern Arizona can strongly expect rain. The winds are going to shift back to a southwesterly origin and bring dry air. Below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The Climate Prediction Center issues new [...]

As promised, a wet start to the monsoon season

To kickoff the monsoon season in fine form, the Flagstaff Airport received a record-breaking 1.89 inches of rain on July 4, 2014. I didn’t see it reported in the Arizona Daily Sun’s website. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1239 AM MST SAT JUL 05 2014 …RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FLAGSTAFF [...]

Monsoon Season will start in earnest this weekend

Dew point temperatures across Arizona will move higher over the next few days. This means more widespread thunder showers across the area. A friend of mine, TB, was mentioning his plans to hike around one of the creek beds near Sedona for the 4th of July. Flash flooding is a serious issue in the desert. [...]

Wind forecast fades

I think the winds have taken a bit longer than usual to fade so that the monsoonal flow could begin. The winds have been strong and out of the west to southwest. Finally, the wind outlook shows the strength dropping through this weekend and swinging around to the south to southeast by early next week. [...]

It all changes on July 2?

Well, the Climate Prediction Center has made a major shift in its 8-14 day precipitation outlook. Yesterday, most of Arizona moved into the above average precipitation zone for the 8-14 day period.  This period starts on July 2. This is very positive news of a wet and timely start to the monsoon season.   On [...]

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