Jan 182017
 
North American Mesoscale Model total snowfall for the first two storms. (From Tropical Tidbits)
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Three waves of winter storms will move across the Northland between Thursday and Monday night. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect and included at the bottom of this post.

The first two waves my not be distinguishable from each other. Once the snow starts falling during the day on Thursday, it may not stop until during the night on Saturday. The break between the storms happens during the day on Friday. Heavier snow starts again in the late afternoon on Friday and continues into Saturday. Snow could be very heavy at times. As you can see in the North American Mesoscale model below, Flagstaff is easily in the 1-2 foot zone.

North American Mesoscale Model total snowfall for the first two storms. (From Tropical Tidbits)

North American Mesoscale Model total snowfall for the first two storms. (From Tropical Tidbits)

The National Weather Service has produced an interesting animation of snowfall amounts. Notice the heavier snowfall along the Mogollon Rim.

Snowfall amounts from Thursday to Saturday. (National Weather Service in Flagstaff)

Snowfall amounts from Thursday to Saturday. (National Weather Service in Flagstaff)

After a rest on Sunday, the snow will start again on Sunday evening and continue until Tuesday morning. This storm is not included in the current Winter Storm Warning. This storm could bring another 10-14 inches of snow. I expect another warning will be issued for this storm.

It’s difficult to differentiate between the shades of gray in the total snowfall image below. Flagstaff could be looking at 3 feet, or more, of snow over the next 5-6 days. Be careful. Enjoy The beauty with a mug of hot chocolate.

Total snowfall outlook from the GFS model. (from Tropical Tidbits)

Total snowfall outlook from the GFS model. (from Tropical Tidbits)

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 913 PM MST WED JAN 18 2017
 
 
 AZZ004-006-007-015-038-191900-
 /O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0001.170119T1300Z-170121T1900Z/
 KAIBAB PLATEAU-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-COCONINO PLATEAU-
 WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
 INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACOB LAKE...GRAND CANYON VILLAGE...
 VALLE...FLAGSTAFF
 913 PM MST WED JAN 18 2017
 
 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO
 NOON MST SATURDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET...
 
 * TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM 
   WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW 
   WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...DECREASING IN INTENSITY DURING 
   THE DAY FRIDAY. A SECOND WAVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL 
   DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 
 
 * GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...DEPENDING ON YOUR 
   LOCATION WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...EXPECT 8 TO 16 INCHES 
   BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET AND 12 TO 24 INCHES ABOVE 7000 
   FEET. CONSULT POINT SPECIFIC FORECASTS AT: 
   WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF. 
 
 * SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 6 AM MST THURSDAY UNTIL NOON MST 
   SATURDAY...
 
      DONEY PARK 10 TO 16 INCHES       FLAGSTAFF 16 TO 22 INCHES
    GRAND CANYON 12 TO 18 INCHES      JACOB LAKE 14 TO 20 INCHES
       NORTH RIM 20 TO 26 INCHES           VALLE  9 TO 15 INCHES
        WILLIAMS 18 TO 24 INCHES
 
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
 A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
 STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.
 
 DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. FOR THE
 LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT FREEWAY
 MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB SITE AT
 WWW.AZ511.COM.
 
 ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
 WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

 

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 Posted by at 9:47 pm

It’s gonna get deep!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on It’s gonna get deep!
Jan 162017
 

ShareA significant snow event, or two, is on the way. Month to date, Flagstaff has received more than double the average snowfall. The snowy winter of 2016-2017 will continue until everyone needs new skis for next year. The timing for this next storm is pretty clear. Snow will start Thursday and continue through Sunday. As […]

 Posted by at 1:29 pm

6-12 inches for Snowbowl. Flagstaff gets mostly rain? Next weekend?

 Monthly Review, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on 6-12 inches for Snowbowl. Flagstaff gets mostly rain? Next weekend?
Jan 142017
 

Share6-12 inches for Snowbowl, Flagstaff gets mostly rain. Next weekend? Checking the point forecast for Snowbowl at the National Weather Service, it will get 6-12 inches of new snow between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Flagstaff will remain mostly warm. Snow levels will be around 7000-7500 feet. So, being careful is important. A slight move […]

 Posted by at 1:20 am

Chance for heavy snow on Saturday night.

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Chance for heavy snow on Saturday night.
Jan 122017
 

ShareThe next few days will bring precipitation now and then to the area, while temperatures remain warm. But, this current version of the 24 hour snowfall computer model shows that heavy snow could fall on Saturday night. Notice the small area of pink, white and green on the image below. Some locations, particularly at higher […]

 Posted by at 10:53 pm

Woe betide us! It’s cut-off low season

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Woe betide us! It’s cut-off low season
Jan 112017
 

Share(Woe betide the sailor…) The forecast for this weekend is…well…probably wet. Actually, probably wet describe the time from now until Monday. But, when, where and how much are up in the air. I’ve discussed cut-off low pressure systems repeatedly over the years. They are notoriously difficult to predict, not just from the when and how […]

 Posted by at 6:38 pm

Super Cold in USA! But rain, not snow, for next week?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Super Cold in USA! But rain, not snow, for next week?
Jan 072017
 

ShareCredit for a great, quick read o the extent of the cold this morning in North America goes to Doctor Roy Spencer: The Frigid 48: U.S. Average Temperature 11 deg. F. His image below shows the extent of the chill across North America. I wanted to reblog his post directly, but I don’t think he […]

 Posted by at 7:29 am

Rain, snow, and no more one-two punches

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Rain, snow, and no more one-two punches
Jan 052017
 

ShareI think the computer modelers are still struggling with the sea surface temperature inputs from the Pacific. It looks like things have settled down in the models. The storm pattern from Christmas and New Year’s seems to have stopped. The storm track is more northerly. Northern Arizona will miss the larger storm centers and only […]

 Posted by at 8:40 am

Will Flagstaff escape the next round of severe cold?

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Will Flagstaff escape the next round of severe cold?
Dec 302016
 

ShareSnow is still on the way for the weekend, but the new question is how cold will Flagstaff be with next punishing cold wave. Current forecasts don’t look too bad. Temperatures in the low 30s for highs, and single digits for lows. But look at the outlook for the rest of the country! The deeper […]

 Posted by at 6:14 am

Full Circle – One-two punch back for weekend.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Full Circle – One-two punch back for weekend.
Dec 292016
 

ShareGood Grief! Scattered light snow showers, maybe rain, with the chance of occasional heavy snow! This morning the Navy model has flipped back to the one-two punch. The GFS model isn’t far behind. This winter continues to be one of the toughest to forecast. Friday night into Saturday is the first round. Sunday is the […]

 Posted by at 6:33 am

New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on New Year’s Weekend outlook changes again
Dec 282016
 

ShareIt looks like the computer models are focusing on a weaker version of last weekend. Just a few inches of snow are possible. Most likely, it will be on Saturday, with lighter precipitation on either side. In any case, I would be ready for winter weather this weekend, particularly if you are traveling. Here is […]

 Posted by at 7:07 am
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