Over the last week, the homegrown forecast at Wunderground.com has included a 30-40% chance of rain for Friday. No place else has been as consistent. All of the computer models(GFS, NoGAPs, NAM) have not shown rain until today. I can not remember another time where this has been the case. Yesterday, the National Weather Service predicted a 10% chance. This morning they have accelerated that to 30%.
So, we will see. Did Wunderground get it right? Are they ahead of the pack?
I usually shoot for the end of September to write my first post for the winter. Historically, this is because Arizona Snowbowl was dependent on natural snow. Now, they make their own snow. As a result, making the early decision about buying a season pass at a discount doesn’t matter so much. As early as […]
If you know me or my blog, you know I watch Lake Powell. Most of my posts are about the water level increase expected each spring and early summer. But many boaters have reported weather problems at the lake that weren’t related to dust storms, thunderstorms or wind storms. Triple digit temperatures are a common […]
The remnants of Hurricane Simon are on their way to Arizona. The big question is still around which path he will take. The Navy NoGAPs computer model has the bulk of the storm going to the west and north of Flagstaff. The GFS model has the storm going to the south and east of Flagstaff. […]
Something new for my blog readers. I’m going to occasionally add reviews for product that are weather related to my blog. First up is the new WR-299 Weather Radio. Please watch the video for details. This is a great compact emergency weather radio that offers AM/FM and Weather bands. It also have an Alert Mode […]
I’ve struggled the last few days with a broken internet connection, malfunctioning iPhone and a rainy weekend. The weekend struggle was the wonderful malaise that can hit Arizonans when it rains all day. Nonetheless, the Climate Prediction Center issued new outlooks for October and the 3-month period October to December. The outlooks point to El […]
A strong cold front is crossing Arizona from west to east today. While the moisture is coming from the south, the cold front is a winter weather phenomenon for Arizona. We are expecting fast-moving thunderstorms with heavy rain and other severe weather. This is reminiscent of the storms on October 6, 2010. The National Weather […]
I have zoomed in and cropped the image below. There is still a pronounced boundary to the heavy precipitation area. The precipitation scale is the same as in the earlier image in my last post. This is from a shorter range, high-resolution model. I think Flagstaff ends up in the 3/4 to 1 inch range. […]
Watching the GFS animation for the next 7 days this morning, I noticed a curious flow in the precipitation pattern. This flow reminded me of our last interaction with the remnants of a hurricane. Hurricane Norbert’s moisture missed us by traveling barely south of us. Next up for us are the remnants of Hurricane Odile. […]
The newest 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks show wet conditions continuing. We should be dry today and Friday. There is a chance for showers over the weekend and into early next week. Sometime in the second half of next week, tropical storm, soon hurricane, Odile will deliver more moisture to Arizona. Tweet
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