Computer models need tweaking to adjust to what’s really going on in the world. It looks like quite a bit changed between Sunday and Monday. The real timeline is probably between last Wednesday and Monday. On weekends and holidays, the computer models more or less independently produce the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks at the Climate Prediction Center. On normal workdays, they are adjusted by real humans. Like every Monday after Thanksgiving, huge adjustments were required.
I saved the outlooks from Sunday, and they are below.
Wow, Flagstaff was going to pretty much get clobbered with snow according to these maps. But, then Monday comes along and adjustments are made.
Looks like the future storm track will shift well to the north, and oddly to the south. Flagstaff ends up in the dry middle for two weeks.