Sep 302014
 

I’ve struggled the last few days with a broken internet connection, malfunctioning iPhone and a rainy weekend. The weekend struggle was the wonderful malaise that can hit Arizonans when it rains all day. Nonetheless, the Climate Prediction Center issued new outlooks for October and the 3-month period October to December.

The outlooks point to El Nino developing. I’m still not sure this is a reasonable expectation. Last spring and early summer, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator appeared headed for a strong El Nino. Unfortunately, the trade-winds did not shift to support it and the sea surface temperatures fell. There is another burst of warm water headed towards Peru now. If the winds shift, we will have El Nino conditions and a high likelihood of a wet winter. If they don’t shift, we will see La Nada neutral conditions(I think this is what will happen). Here is NOAA’s narrative about the outlooks:

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS WITH THE LIKELY TRANSITION TO EL NINO CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN AND 
WINTER. A WEAK EL NINO EVENT IS MOST PROBABLE, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF 
EITHER A MODERATE EVENT OR CONTINUED ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO WINTER. A 
STRONG EL NINO EVENT IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS YEAR. MOST DYNAMICAL AND 
STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS OF EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION (170W TO 120W LONGITUDE AND 5S TO 5N 
LATITUDE) INDICATE A WEAK EL NINO (+0.5C TO +0.9C) WITH PEAK ANOMALIES IN THE 
EARLY WINTER.

 

Here are the outlooks:

One-month precipitation outlook for October 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center

One-month precipitation outlook for October 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center

Three-month precipitation outlook for October- December 2014  from the Climate Predicction Center.

Three-month precipitation outlook for October- December 2014 from the Climate Prediction Center.

 Posted by at 7:10 am
Sep 152014
 

Watching the GFS animation for the next 7 days this morning, I noticed a curious flow in the precipitation pattern. This flow reminded me of our last interaction with the remnants of a hurricane. Hurricane Norbert’s moisture missed us by traveling barely south of us. Next up for us are the remnants of Hurricane Odile. [...]

 Posted by at 6:34 am
Sep 112014
 

The newest 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks show wet conditions continuing. We should be dry today and Friday. There is a chance for showers over the weekend and into early next week. Sometime in the second half of next week, tropical storm, soon hurricane, Odile will deliver more moisture to Arizona. Tweet

 Posted by at 6:28 am
Sep 092014
 

Mother nature decided to blow the forecast away. There was a ton of moisture in Arizona’s atmosphere. Below is an image from Intellicast.com that shows an estimate of daily precipitation based on radar imagery. If you compare this image to from the National Weather Service, you can see that things didn’t turn out to forecast. [...]

 Posted by at 6:51 am
Sep 032014
 

Reinforcing my post from yesterday. The Climate Prediction Center released their new September outlook. We are looking at above average precipitation. Add to this the 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks, and they have painted a very wet picture for us this month. Moisture is already flowing our way. Look for thunderstorms to start tomorrow [...]

 Posted by at 6:20 am
Sep 022014
 

We had a wet and cool August. The National Weather Service in Flagstaff published their monthly report for August. Northern Arizona was cool and wet. The wet piece probably surprises no one. The part I find interesting is that the cool temperatures and above average precipitation prevailed in most of Northern Arizona. Too often, we [...]

 Posted by at 6:47 am
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