Wet Relief on the Way

 Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wet Relief on the Way
Jan 082018
 
Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.
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Monday night through Wednesday afternoon, the storm door will open and allow both rain and snow into Flagstaff. It will be a very wet storm. It could bring as much as 1.5 inches of water to the Northland. Unfortunately, snow will be limited, and the next storm won’t make it through until about 2 weeks later. California’s and southwestern Colorado’s mountains will get considerable snow accumulations.

Total water precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Total water precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

 

Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

Total snow precipitation through Wednesday afternoon, January 10, 2018, from the GFS model at TropicalTidbits.com.

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 Posted by at 12:03 pm

Finally, Snow!

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Finally, Snow!
Jan 042018
 

ShareThe GFS Model finally has snow in the outlook for next week!!! I’m still doubtful. The last couple model runs had next to nothing in the forecast. Share

 Posted by at 10:12 am

Change within a week. I remain doubtful.

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Change within a week. I remain doubtful.
Jan 022018
 

ShareSince my last post, the GFS and NAVGEM model have been indicating a change in the storm pattern. They don’t always match on the intensity and timing. One thing that seems to be consistent is mostly rain, not snow, falling. The temperatures will remain elevated for Arizona. Currently, there is little chance for something this […]

 Posted by at 11:17 pm

Just a bit more than a week away…again

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Just a bit more than a week away…again
Dec 292017
 

ShareAs if to make my point from my last post, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center now have a significant shift in the precipitation outlook. In other words, in a bit more than a week, precipitation could fall. This could make sense. The recent move of cold air to the […]

 Posted by at 10:27 pm
Dec 272017
 

ShareIt’s a bummer, but dry periods happen. The falls of 1999 and 2005 were dry, but followed by wetter periods. Sigh! There continues to be a always present chance of something maybe after a week from now. It comes and goes. It’s in one model run, gone from the next. It’s heavy in one, weak […]

 Posted by at 3:43 am

Do Not Read This White Christmas Post!!!

 Northern Arizona Weather, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Do Not Read This White Christmas Post!!!
Dec 122017
 

ShareHoffnung entspringt der Ewigkeit. (Hope springs eternal) There continues to be a chance for at least a bit of snow around Christmas time. Although, still two weeks away, the computer models keep putting in a storm the weekend before. And, as a special treat, there is a storm a day or two after, too. Hopefully, […]

 Posted by at 12:58 pm

I don’t believe it, but what the heck!

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on I don’t believe it, but what the heck!
Dec 092017
 

ShareIs there a chance for a White Christmas? Yes, but I seriously doubt it for this year in Flagstaff. But wait! Look what popped into the longer range computer model for the Friday before Christmas. It looks pleasantly blue, but those are low precipitation rates, which could lead to a nice whitening effect. I recommend […]

 Posted by at 1:21 am

Another Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or just La Nina

 El Nino/La Nina, White Christmas, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Another Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or just La Nina
Dec 052017
 

ShareJJ challenged me to comment on Facebook about a post from WeatherWest.com about the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge from a few years back. This was the weather system that gave California a long drought, and robbed Arizona of a good El Nino winter. The blob of warm water disappeared and the ridge went with it. I […]

 Posted by at 12:00 pm

Will it ever truly snow this winter? Will Stu ever blog again?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Will it ever truly snow this winter? Will Stu ever blog again?
Nov 262017
 

ShareProbably, and yes. Hello everyone. Sorry for the long break between posts. As previously, I’ve been occupied with being in Europe. More on that some other time. I have been watching the development of the winter. I typically become more fixated on winter storms, and not so much on winter droughts. This winter is a […]

 Posted by at 6:56 am

Julys, July’s or Julies? Well, they’ve been wet.

 Climate, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Julys, July’s or Julies? Well, they’ve been wet.
Aug 062017
 

ShareI did check on dictionary.com. At that site, Julys or Julies are both deemed correct. However, as I type in the WordPress editor, Julys has a red dotted line under it. Well, anyway, I’ll use Julies since that will create the most confusion. Four of the last 8 have been more than one standard deviation […]

 Posted by at 4:23 am
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