Aug 172014
 

In my last post, I pointed out that a drier period was ahead. What I had meant, and what the models foretold, was no rain for a week or so. That has not been the case. Thursday evening, a storm moved across the west side of Flagstaff dumping heavy rain across the area. Friday evening a storm hit central Flagstaff. I got about 1/3 of an inch of rain. I got more rain on Saturday, a mere 0.03 inches. This is drier than earlier in the week when I received over an inch.

This dry trend will continue for the next few days with a 30-60% chance of rain each day through Thursday. I think that in wet years, the forecast models run on the dry side, especially at long lead times. In dry years, they run on the wet side. The result is that more is on the way for this week.

 Posted by at 10:16 pm
Aug 132014
 

It’s hard to believe since it rained all night last night, but another break in the action is ahead. The weekend might be a bit wet, but next week is looking mostly dry. I think this is due to the repetitive formation of hurricanes off the coast of Central America. These storms keep forming and [...]

 Posted by at 6:13 am
Aug 112014
 

Last night we saw the first part of a wet week. This week, we should be inside the monsoonal flow. And, I think there is plenty of warm water to support an ongoing rainy season. The Pacific Coast of North American, all the way down to Central America is quite warm compared to normal. This [...]

 Posted by at 6:49 am
Jul 312014
 

For the next four days, some of the forecasts and the computer models show as much as an 1.5-2 inches of rain for parts of Northern Arizona. This will give us a good start to August. The scope of the precipitation over the next few days isn’t reflected in every forecast. Some, like the NOAA’s [...]

 Posted by at 6:40 am
Jul 162014
 

Starting today, the dew point temperature is going to fall. By this weekend, our dew point temperature will be in the 20s. This is well below the damp 50+ dew point temperatures we need for good thunderstorm activity.  But, the moisture should build back into the region by early next week. Below are the dew [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
Jul 152014
 

Looking out 2 weeks, you might think so. Today is the last day in the current forecasts and outlooks when Northern Arizona can strongly expect rain. The winds are going to shift back to a southwesterly origin and bring dry air. Below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The Climate Prediction Center issues new [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
Jul 072014
 

To kickoff the monsoon season in fine form, the Flagstaff Airport received a record-breaking 1.89 inches of rain on July 4, 2014. I didn’t see it reported in the Arizona Daily Sun’s website. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF, AZ 1239 AM MST SAT JUL 05 2014 …RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FLAGSTAFF [...]

 Posted by at 6:40 am
Jul 032014
 

Dew point temperatures across Arizona will move higher over the next few days. This means more widespread thunder showers across the area. A friend of mine, TB, was mentioning his plans to hike around one of the creek beds near Sedona for the 4th of July. Flash flooding is a serious issue in the desert. [...]

 Posted by at 6:50 am
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