Little pink dot means?

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Little pink dot means?
Mar 202017
 
Total precipitation outlook for the rest of March 2017,from the GFS Model. (Tropicaltidbits.com)
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Check out the image below. The little pink dot over the Flagstaff means that there is still a chance for March to have normal, or even a bit above normal precipitation. Even with the warm temperatures over the weekend, there is a change coming. The storm track will be crossing Arizona for the rest of the month. Temperatures will drop slowly during the rest of the month. This means the first storm will start as rain on Wednesday. Any snow will probably be wet. Future storms should be colder and snowier.

Total precipitation outlook for the rest of March 2017,from the GFS Model. (Tropicaltidbits.com)

Total precipitation outlook for the rest of March 2017,from the GFS Model. (Tropicaltidbits.com)

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 Posted by at 11:40 am

Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.
Mar 152017
 

ShareJuly and August are the wettest. They are followed by December and March. This is based on the average precipitation values at the Flagstaff Airport since 1950. The average precipitation for March is just barely over 2 inches. But wait! It’s been sunny and warm all month. Way back when, it was sunny and warm […]

 Posted by at 11:05 am

Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook
Mar 092017
 

ShareFlagstaff has above average precipitation amounts for both the calendar year, and the water year (since 1 September). February had a final big storm at the end of the month to just cross the normal for the month. So far, March has been effectively dry. It looks like it’s going to stay the way for […]

 Posted by at 12:00 pm

One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls
Feb 282017
 

ShareWith the Flagstaff Airport coming in at 16.3 inches, and many locations reporting similar results, for 8-12 inches in the actual Weather Service Forecast, this was a heck of a foot on snow. This last storm was tricky to forecast with plenty of variability of the computer models. Also, the track of the storm was […]

 Posted by at 9:55 pm

Heavy snow to finish February

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Heavy snow to finish February
Feb 262017
 

ShareFinally, the models have aligned. We’ll see if it holds. As you see below, heavy snowfall is on the way to the Flagstaff area. A winter storm warning is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. As you look at the image below, you will notice that Flagstaff is under the greenish section of […]

 Posted by at 11:30 pm

Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds
Feb 242017
 

ShareMaybe one computer has made up it’s mind. The Navy computer model is predicting a wet end to the February on a consistent basis. NOAA’s GFS model is not repeatably predicting anything. On Friday, two runs of the GFS model shows very light precipitation through the end of the month. Then, there were two other […]

 Posted by at 11:43 pm

Here’s an animation that makes the point.

 Climate, Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Here’s an animation that makes the point.
Feb 162017
 

ShareThe computer GFS computer model is all over the place. Here is an animation of 4 images. All 4 images report total project precipitation through next Tuesday evening. Notice, it hasn’t started to rain or snow at this time, so that the start time doesn’t matter. The precipitation amounts are widely different. It looks like […]

 Posted by at 11:33 am

Wetter ab dem Wochenende: Die Wettermodelle sind sich überhaupt nicht einig

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wetter ab dem Wochenende: Die Wettermodelle sind sich überhaupt nicht einig
Feb 152017
 

ShareReader: Stu, that title is in German. Stu: I know, but it will make sense later on. Bis Freitag scheinen sich die Wettermodelle noch sehr einig zu sein, was am Wetterhimmel passiert. Aber schon am Wochenende sind sie sich schon nicht mehr einig, die Temperaturspanne wird breiter. Und in der nächsten Woche liegen die Prognosen […]

 Posted by at 11:17 pm

Rest of February looks wetter than on Friday

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Rest of February looks wetter than on Friday
Feb 122017
 

ShareThe computer GFS computer model has been changing the precipitation outlook for the rest of the month quite a bit between runs. On Friday, the rest of the month, through Sunday evening, February 26, looked fairly wet. This image is reposted below.Flagstaff was in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. This Sunday morning, everything looks […]

 Posted by at 8:22 am

After a dry start, will Flagstaff hit average precipitation for February

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on After a dry start, will Flagstaff hit average precipitation for February
Feb 112017
 

ShareBut first, what is average? In the grand view, we have limited data. The National Weather Service maintains a record going back to 1898. Between 1898 and 1950, the weather station site moved 4 times. This complicates the precipitation record because of the effects terrain can play on precipitation amounts. Precipitation has been measured at […]

 Posted by at 12:08 am
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