Sep 022014
 

We had a wet and cool August. The National Weather Service in Flagstaff published their monthly report for August. Northern Arizona was cool and wet. The wet piece probably surprises no one. The part I find interesting is that the cool temperatures and above average precipitation prevailed in most of Northern Arizona. Too often, we have a bimodal summer. Flagstaff had 2.2 inches over the average precipitation, and 3.8 degrees below normal. I usually think +/- 2 degrees is in the normal range.

August temperatures and precipitation data departure from normal for Northern Arizona locations.

August temperatures and precipitation data departure from normal for Northern Arizona locations. (National Weather Service Flagstaff)

The monsoon season may have one more wet session in store for us. As tropical systems continue to march up the West Coast, they may bring more moisture to are region. This weekend is the next big chance.

 

 Posted by at 6:47 am
Aug 232014
 

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center released new 1-month and 3-month long-range outlooks. They point to continued above normal precipitation for September, and September to November. They are below. I think the above average temperature waters off the West Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. El Nino continues to look iffy. Currently, another slightly drier [...]

 Posted by at 7:03 am
Aug 172014
 

In my last post, I pointed out that a drier period was ahead. What I had meant, and what the models foretold, was no rain for a week or so. That has not been the case. Thursday evening, a storm moved across the west side of Flagstaff dumping heavy rain across the area. Friday evening [...]

 Posted by at 10:16 pm
Aug 132014
 

It’s hard to believe since it rained all night last night, but another break in the action is ahead. The weekend might be a bit wet, but next week is looking mostly dry. I think this is due to the repetitive formation of hurricanes off the coast of Central America. These storms keep forming and [...]

 Posted by at 6:13 am
Aug 112014
 

Last night we saw the first part of a wet week. This week, we should be inside the monsoonal flow. And, I think there is plenty of warm water to support an ongoing rainy season. The Pacific Coast of North American, all the way down to Central America is quite warm compared to normal. This [...]

 Posted by at 6:49 am
Jul 312014
 

For the next four days, some of the forecasts and the computer models show as much as an 1.5-2 inches of rain for parts of Northern Arizona. This will give us a good start to August. The scope of the precipitation over the next few days isn’t reflected in every forecast. Some, like the NOAA’s [...]

 Posted by at 6:40 am
Jul 162014
 

Starting today, the dew point temperature is going to fall. By this weekend, our dew point temperature will be in the 20s. This is well below the damp 50+ dew point temperatures we need for good thunderstorm activity.  But, the moisture should build back into the region by early next week. Below are the dew [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
Jul 152014
 

Looking out 2 weeks, you might think so. Today is the last day in the current forecasts and outlooks when Northern Arizona can strongly expect rain. The winds are going to shift back to a southwesterly origin and bring dry air. Below are the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The Climate Prediction Center issues new [...]

 Posted by at 6:33 am
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