Jun 242017
 
The Partheonon at night, May 2017.
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Yes, my last post was on May 4. Here we are several weeks, and European trips, later. Since May 4th, I have travelled to Prague, Greece, Italy, Austria and the far south of Germany. Prague was a work trip to see some stunning work presented! Greece was a week long sailing trip that came about because of the 40th birthday parties of a couple friends. Athens is truly striking! Italy was for a long weekend by the Gardasee (Lake Garda). Austria is in between, and with beautiful springtime green meadows against the rocky Alps. Ah! And now the weather!

The Partheonon at night, May 2017.

The Parthenon at night, May 2017.

Of course it’s fire season. I’m surprised by the number of fires and the intensity of the fire near Brian’s Head. It’s been a fairly wet winter and spring for most of the southwest. One of the indicators of this is the meteoric rise in Lake Powell. It is the deepest it has been on this date since 2011. It could be the second deepest summer out of the last decade. The lake hit it’s low point, just shy of 3594 feet in early spring. Currently, it is around the elevation of 3633 and still rising several inches per day. A wet year so far.

Lake Powell water level from water-data.com

Lake Powell water level from water-data.com. Notice it’s more like the last 5 years.

Now, the monsoon season. I realize there have been several faux monsoon storms. They were more driven by frontal systems passing to the north of Arizona, than a sustained moist flow from the south. The good news is that the heat has arrive to start the monsoon engine. Joe D’Aleo has written a nice summary of how the heat drives the flow. You can also take a look at my Monsoon Mechanics page.

The less good news is that the current computer forecasts point to the flow starting very much to the east of Flagstaff. It maybe after the 4th of July before the rains start in earnest. Below is a recent GFS model out look for precipitation between now and July 4. You can see only a small amount of precipitation predicted during this time frame.

Precipitation outlook between now and July 4, 2017 from the GFS model on TropicalTidbits.com

Precipitation outlook between now and July 4, 2017 from the GFS model on TropicalTidbits.com

Back to the better news, the outlook for the development of El Nino is low. El Nino conditions include the development of anomalous winds that can cut across the moisture flow, sending it elsewhere. Hopefully, when the season starts it will be a normal one.

Oh wait, what is a normal monsoon season?

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 Posted by at 4:21 am

Unsettled weather could delay fire season

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Unsettled weather could delay fire season
May 042017
 

ShareNext Tuesday through Thursday, a low pressure system is currently in the forecast to move across Northern Arizona. It should bring considerable water, but spread across the three day period. That should help with fire season after several weeks with high winds. I don’t write much about the spring winds. The driving force is the […]

 Posted by at 8:04 pm

Major Snowstorm to Hit Flagstaff Tonight

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Major Snowstorm to Hit Flagstaff Tonight
Apr 012017
 

ShareWelcome to April! Unbelievably, all of the computer models have changed overnight. Flagstaff will receive 5-7 feet of snow overnight! The National Weather Service is clearly scrambling to get a grip what they should do about this. No severe weather warnings have been issued. Expect temperatures to drop severely this afternoon and early evening. Snow […]

 Posted by at 8:58 am

Little pink dot means?

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Little pink dot means?
Mar 202017
 

ShareCheck out the image below. The little pink dot over the Flagstaff means that there is still a chance for March to have normal, or even a bit above normal precipitation. Even with the warm temperatures over the weekend, there is a change coming. The storm track will be crossing Arizona for the rest of […]

 Posted by at 11:40 am

Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.
Mar 152017
 

ShareJuly and August are the wettest. They are followed by December and March. This is based on the average precipitation values at the Flagstaff Airport since 1950. The average precipitation for March is just barely over 2 inches. But wait! It’s been sunny and warm all month. Way back when, it was sunny and warm […]

 Posted by at 11:05 am

Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook
Mar 092017
 

ShareFlagstaff has above average precipitation amounts for both the calendar year, and the water year (since 1 September). February had a final big storm at the end of the month to just cross the normal for the month. So far, March has been effectively dry. It looks like it’s going to stay the way for […]

 Posted by at 12:00 pm

One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls
Feb 282017
 

ShareWith the Flagstaff Airport coming in at 16.3 inches, and many locations reporting similar results, for 8-12 inches in the actual Weather Service Forecast, this was a heck of a foot on snow. This last storm was tricky to forecast with plenty of variability of the computer models. Also, the track of the storm was […]

 Posted by at 9:55 pm

Heavy snow to finish February

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Heavy snow to finish February
Feb 262017
 

ShareFinally, the models have aligned. We’ll see if it holds. As you see below, heavy snowfall is on the way to the Flagstaff area. A winter storm warning is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. As you look at the image below, you will notice that Flagstaff is under the greenish section of […]

 Posted by at 11:30 pm

Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds
Feb 242017
 

ShareMaybe one computer has made up it’s mind. The Navy computer model is predicting a wet end to the February on a consistent basis. NOAA’s GFS model is not repeatably predicting anything. On Friday, two runs of the GFS model shows very light precipitation through the end of the month. Then, there were two other […]

 Posted by at 11:43 pm

Here’s an animation that makes the point.

 Climate, Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Here’s an animation that makes the point.
Feb 162017
 

ShareThe computer GFS computer model is all over the place. Here is an animation of 4 images. All 4 images report total project precipitation through next Tuesday evening. Notice, it hasn’t started to rain or snow at this time, so that the start time doesn’t matter. The precipitation amounts are widely different. It looks like […]

 Posted by at 11:33 am
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