Nov 292016
 
6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016
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Computer models need tweaking to adjust to what’s really going on in the world. It looks like quite a bit changed between Sunday and Monday. The real timeline is probably between last Wednesday and Monday. On weekends and holidays, the computer models more or less independently produce the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks at the Climate Prediction Center. On normal workdays, they are adjusted by real humans. Like every Monday after Thanksgiving, huge adjustments were required.

I saved the outlooks from Sunday, and they are below.

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 27, 2016

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 27, 2016

Wow, Flagstaff was going to pretty much get clobbered with snow according to these maps. But, then Monday comes along and adjustments are made.

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016

6-10 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 29, 2016

8-14 day precipitation anomaly outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on November 28, 2016

Looks like the future storm track will shift well to the north, and oddly to the south. Flagstaff ends up in the dry middle for two weeks.

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 Posted by at 5:40 am

Advisory, watch, warning?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Advisory, watch, warning?
Nov 272016
 

ShareWith 5-10 inches of snow on the way for Flagstaff, and more for other areas, what the heck do all the National Weather Service’s key words and catchy phrases mean. Advisories mean, “Hey, there’s something you should probably keep in the back of your mind as you plan your activities.” From a kid’s point of […]

 Posted by at 1:08 am

Wait a minute…Did Stu just post after two months of silence?

 Uncategorized  Comments Off on Wait a minute…Did Stu just post after two months of silence?
Nov 252016
 

ShareYes, I did. If you look below, you will get a feel for why I’ve been disengaged for a while. Some requires reading between the lines. Some doesn’t. Austria, Germany, United States, Italy, The Netherlands, Scotland, England, Hong Kong, Japan, Spain, and the Czech Republic makes 11 countries. Oh wait! I forgot about France (but […]

 Posted by at 12:08 pm

Wonderful December Weather Ahead!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wonderful December Weather Ahead!
Nov 242016
 

ShareFor those that follow me on Facebook, you will notice the posts about the spreading snow in Siberia and what it means for the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this winter. I think the key point is that El Nino overrides the impact early Siberian snowfall. But, we are heading towards La Nina this winter. […]

 Posted by at 11:15 am

A different look at the numbers.

 Models, Monsoon  Comments Off on A different look at the numbers.
Sep 032016
 

ShareI friend of mine reported heavy, torrential downpours in Flagstaff on Friday. This is typically good news. When I looked for the rainfall total at the Flagstaff Airport, the weather station had reported no rain for the day. When I looked at a couple of downtown weather stations, KAZFLAGS42 and KAZFLAGS82, on Wunderground.com, I found […]

 Posted by at 4:36 am

Second wettest August since 1950

 Hurricane, Record  Comments Off on Second wettest August since 1950
Aug 272016
 

ShareWith two days of record rainfall, 1.41 inches on Friday, 0.94 inches on Saturday, the total precipitation for August at the Flagstaff airport is 6.34 inches. Since placing the National Weather Service placed the weather station at the Flagstaff Airport in 1950, only August of 1986 had higher rainfall at 8.06 inches. This brings the […]

 Posted by at 11:10 pm

Weather is always odd

 Models, Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Weather is always odd
Aug 112016
 

ShareAs the most recent batch of moisture, which was left over from a tropical system, starts to leave Arizona, the outlooks have switched. We still have a dry period ahead, but then more moisture will return in about a week. At least, it looks that way today. Yesterday, NOAA increased it’s outlook for Atlantic hurricane […]

 Posted by at 9:35 pm

Don’t get too used to being dry

 Monsoon, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t get too used to being dry
Aug 062016
 

ShareWith July finishing nearly on average for precipitation and over two inches falling already in August, the next few days should be mostly drier. But, don’t get used to it. I think the current break in the action is due to a couple of tropical systems moving around Southern and Central Mexico. These have shutdown […]

 Posted by at 9:52 pm

Strong precipitation outlook for the next month

 Models, Monsoon, Outlooks  Comments Off on Strong precipitation outlook for the next month
Jul 222016
 

ShareThe Climate Prediction Center released new 6-1o day, 8-14 day and 1 month outlooks on Thursday. Even though Flagstaff’s July precipitation is half of normal for this point in the month, the next month of the monsoon season should be above average. Below is an animation of these outlooks. Share

 Posted by at 8:40 am

After a long sigh, the monsoonal flow will return

 Monsoon  Comments Off on After a long sigh, the monsoonal flow will return
Jul 162016
 

ShareIt’s been chilly an draining in most of Europe for the last few weeks. It’s been warm and dry for a couple of weeks in Northern Arizona. Thunderstorm activity will increase over the next few days and hopefully continue for most of the rest of the month. I think I mentioned July 19th in my […]

 Posted by at 12:04 pm
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