With the already wetter than normal June (over half an inch above average), the start of the monsoon season should be wetter and earlier than average. Yesterday’s rain in the Flagstaff area is just a taste. It should dry out one more time before next week. While the 1-4 week outlooks all call for above average precipitation, I’m not sure how long it will last with the on-coming La Nina.
Below are the outlooks for 6-10 days, 8-14 days and 3-4 weeks. They all show above average expectations of above average precipitation. After last winter’s dry conditions, this should help the Northland. As La Nina emerges, I am afraid that the season will start strong, but finish quickly and lead to a long dry phase.
6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
8-14 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
3-4 week precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
I mentioned to a few people I saw in Flagstaff yesterday that I thought there was a chance the monsoon season would start in earnest next week. The warm/hot temperatures we will experience over the next few days will drive formation of the thermal low pressure system in southwestern Arizona. (Visit my Monsoon Mechanics website […]
I’m still not sure I believe what is showing up in the computer models and forecasts. Although, it makes sense. It looks like a burst of monsoonal moisture is one its way for this weekend and next week. One week out, the forecast is calling for cooler, possibly below normal temperatures, and thunderstorms. The current […]
To date, May has been chilly and wet. Flagstaff is ahead of average on precipitation by over an inch, and on temperature by 3.7 degrees. The average daily high has only by 62.2 degrees, which is 6 degrees below normal. I look at the month and maybe a bit deeper in this El Nino compared […]
As I sit in Hong Kong, I am wondering about the curious similarities in Flagstaff’s and Munich’s winter and spring. Both had relatively warm and dry winters. And now, both are having cold, wet Mays. With yesterday’s (I think that means Tuesday, jet lag and the international dateline make me wonder)…With yesterday’s precipitation, this May […]
I see these posts from people wishing for the end of winter on Facebook after the recent bit of snow. It is only April. We’re expecting snow next week in Munich. It looks like you shouldn’t put your snow shovel away in Flagstaff, either. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center […]
OutlooksComments Off on Is winter on the way back to Northern Arizona.
At the end of last week, the outlooks for April shifted. I couldn’t bring myself to post about a change to upcoming wetter conditions on April Fool’s Day. The last 6 month’s we have seen a repeated disappearing act of storms. They would show up in the computer models as strong storms over a week […]
Yes, that is the general perception. But, over the weekend Flagstaff fell below average for the water year, which begins in September. And, this isn’t a typical El Niño. This has probably been a Modoki El Niño. It’s a different kind of El Niño. With this type, the warm zone is farther to the west […]
The outlooks and computer models are solidifying around a wet March. It starts this weekend with a mild storm with light precipitation. The pattern builds through the month. The precipitation in the first two weeks of March could hit the monthly average. More details as the future storms are closer. Below is the 6-10 day, […]
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