Are cooler temperatures ahead?

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  No Responses »
Feb 072012
 

January was warm. As I mentioned in an earlier post, it was the 6th warmest January on record for Flagstaff. So far, mostly because of Friday’s low temperatures, February is off to a chilly start. But the forecasts for the next week point to near normal temperatures.

Looking over the one-week horizon, the Climate Prediction center is pointing to a shift in temperatures. Both the 6-8 and 10-14 day outlooks have below average temperatures on the way to the Western US. This would be a big shift from January.The shift in temperatures doesn’t seem to bring wetter weather with it.

We have a slight chance of snow for the next 3 days. I don’t think we will even see as much as we saw last Wednesday.

6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

 Posted by Stu at 6:49 am

La Nina Impacts

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  No Responses »
Feb 032012
 

Jared N asked a great question yesterday. Basically, he was asking how long this current dry spell will last and what will the fire outlook be? La Nina and the general cold of the Pacific Ocean is driving our weather pattern and it doesn’t look like a big change is on the way

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Outlook from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society - January 19, 2012

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Outlook from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society - January 19, 2012

El Nino and La Nina are the warm and cold episodes for the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Nino usually indicates a cool wet pattern for the Southwest. La Nina usually means a warm dry winter for the Southwest. In the chart above, most of the models show that La Nina will hang on at least through Spring. The March-April-May (MAM) data point shows the temperature anomaly just crossing above -0.5 degrees C. One half of a degree anomaly is the demarcation of La Nina or El Nino.

La Nina Impacts- CLIMAS - University of Arizona

La Nina impacts CLIMAS - University of Arizona

With El Nino, the storm track is typically right across the southern United States. With La Nina, the jet stream and storm track stay to the north. Since our last storm in December, we experienced this nearly exact situation. With La Nina predicted to stay in tact, the outlook is for more of the same. While it seems to me that the Climate Prediction Center’s 3-month outlook looks nearly the same for any situation, it actually applies now. Warm and dry conditions are forecast for the next 3 months. The would indicate a potentially bad fire season. However, a single errant storm could dump a bunch of snow and get us back to normal.

3 month temperature out look from the Climate Prediction Center

3 month temperature out look from the Climate Prediction Center

3 month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

3 month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

 

 Posted by Stu at 7:09 am

Maybe next week mode

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Feb 022012
 

Looks like our weather pattern is stuck in one of those “maybe next week” modes. Last week around this time, a storm popped up in the forecast models for the middle of this week. But here we are in the middle of this week with only very light and widely scatter mist and flurries.

We may see a storm in the middle of next week according to NOAA’s GFS model. The NoGAPS model has no precipitation in it. I think this is our pattern for a while.

Sorry I haven’t posted for a while and there have been problems with my weather station. The last few weeks I’ve traveled around the world and went from the extreme of Miami to as far north as Bergen, Norway in the last few weeks. Also, with weather like we experienced in January, there isn’t much to talk about. As expected, January was warm and dry. It was the 6th warmest January in Flagstaff’s record.

The funny thing is that while we are warm and toasty, the rest of the world is not as hot. Alaska nearly set a new all-time record low for the United States. The record of -80F was set in 1971. Jim River, Alaska, made it down to -79F. Seriously, we need to enjoy what we have.

I have new parts on the way for my weather station. Apparently, the altitude is too much for my Storm Glass, It developed a pretty bad leak and got put aside for now.

 Posted by Stu at 6:53 am

Tonight’s storm won’t get us back to normal

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Jan 232012
 

We are over an inch behind for the month of January for precipitation. We are over 11 inches below average on snow. January has been warm and dry. With the wet fall, we are still above average for the water year which started on September 1st.

Through Tuesday morning, we could receive 2-4 inches of snow. This will still leave us well below average for the year. The pattern doesn’t seem to shift in the longer range models. Most of the upcoming storm systems will stay to the north.

 Posted by Stu at 1:11 am

Bouncing forecasts

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Jan 192012
 

All week-long the model projections for this weekend and early next week have gone back and forth. None of the models had aligned. Today it looks like we will get some precipitation on Saturday, and again late on Sunday or Monday. The models are aligning around a storm track that is more to the north across Utah and Colorado. I think we will end up with mostly wind and a little snow.

 Posted by Stu at 5:08 am

Looks like a pattern change is on the way

 Northern Arizona Weather, Shark Oil Barometer, Storm Glass, Winter Storms  Comments Off
Jan 132012
 

The Weather Story image from the National Weather Service this morning tells an interesting story. With our earlier storm in the fall, we saw much the same pattern as depicted below. The key was always where the systems came together. Lately, this has been farther to the east.

Weather Story from the National Weather Service - 1-13-2012

Weather Story from the National Weather Service - 1-13-2012

I think we will see a few inches of snow from this system on Sunday night or Monday. While this is a small storm, it could mark a change in the pattern.

On a new front, I noticed a change on my Storm Glass. It has crystals floating on top of the liquid. According to the guide, this indicates thunderstorms. At least it is a change. My Shark Oil Barometer has been cloudy ever since I removed it from the sun. You can check both instruments out on my Shark Oil Barometer page.

Shark Oil Baromter, Admiral Fitzroy's Storm Glass and my weather station console.

Shark Oil Barometer, Admiral Fitzroy's Storm Glass and my weather station console.

 

 Posted by Stu at 6:54 am

Cold Pacific

 Climate, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Jan 112012
 

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a climate variability pattern that cycles over decades. An indicator of the phase is sea surface temperature. In the warm phase the eastern Pacific Ocean is warm and the western Pacific Ocean is cool. In the cool phase, the western Pacific is warm and the eastern Pacific is cool. Right now, the eastern Pacific is very cool. Also, notice the equatorial Pacific is cool with La Nina in place.

Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly on January 9, 2012. NOAA

Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly on January 9, 2012. NOAA

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index represents the degree of PDO variability. With the current cool conditions, the November 2011 measurement of the PDO Index is the lowest it has been since 1961. The PDO INdex in November was -2.33. It has been mostly negative since 2005.

PDO Index based on data from Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean at the University of Washington

PDO Index based on data from Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and the Ocean at the University of Washington

While a number of factors affect Arizona’s climate, a cool or negative PDO Index is typically associated with drier than normal conditions across the southern United States. This seems to fit our current dry pattern.

The chance for snow on Sunday is evaporating.

 Posted by Stu at 7:09 am

We have a shot at some snow!

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off
Jan 102012
 

It’s been warm and dry. But, we have a couple of opportunities for something. First, we have a shot at something light on Sunday or Monday. We will not see very big precipitation amounts. The fact that the storm track will drop far enough south to cross Arizona. It has been far to the north since our last storm in December.

12-hour precipitation outlook from the GFS Model for the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, January 15, 2012

12-hour precipitation outlook from the GFS Model for the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday, January 15, 2012

As you can see, any precipitation amounts will be small. Will this be an aberration or the start of a new trend? The long-term outlook keeps oscillating. We will have to wait and see.

 Posted by Stu at 6:38 am

2011 reviews, some new equipment

 Climate, Monthly Review, Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Jan 082012
 

The National Weather Service office in Flagstaff produced two very nice documents about 2011. One is a review of top weather events in 2011. It’s a pdf of a Powerpoint slide set. The second is their standard text review of 2011. Here they are:

Top 10 Weather Events in 2011

2011 Year in Review

Both pdfs are worth seeing. The only point I would like to make about the year is that overall it was below average on temperature. Sure, it was dry, but we typically don’t hear about things being colder than average.

La Nina drove the dry weather. La Nina and a cold Pacific Ocean could have contributed to the cooler weather. Also, throughout the year the solar cycle continued to underperform to NASA’s models. The Sun has been very dim.  Half a degree of temperature swing may not seem like much. The Arizona Daily Sun didn’t report on the cold year in their 2011 Year in Review: Drought in Flagstaff ends article. Keep in mind that this average temperature included one of Flagstaff’s hottest Augusts on record. By comparison, the global temperatures change by a similar amount during El Nino events. That is typically news.

UAH Global Temperature Update for Dec. 2011

UAH Global Temperature Update for Dec. 2011

It seems to me that half of a degree merits pointing out. Consider it done.

New weather prediction instrument added!!!

My family gave me an “Admiral Fitzroy’s Storm Glass” for Christmas. You can view it next to my Shark Oil Barometer.  It has a similar reported behavior. I think it is still getting acclimated. Wikipedia has Storm Glass page. About.com has a Fitzroy’s Storm Glass page. I will be modifying the barometer webpage to include a Storm Glass section. For now, here is how it should work:

  • If the liquid in the glass is clear, the weather will be bright and clear.
  • If the liquid is cloudy, the weather will be cloudy as well, perhaps with precipitation.
  • If there are small dots in the liquid, humid or foggy weather is expected.
  • A cloudy glass with small stars indicates thunderstorms.
  • If the liquid has small stars on sunny winter days, then snow is coming.
  • If there are large flakes throughout the liquid, it will be overcast in temperate seasons or snowy in the winter.
  • If there are crystals at the bottom, this indicates frost.
  • If there are threads near the top, it will be windy.

It didn’t seem to change as we had the windy system move through last night. But, we will see what it does in the future. I had to move the barometer out of the window. The storm glass should not be placed in the direct sunlight. I’m not sure where I will leave it.

Stu's weather equipment including Admiral Fitzroy's Storm Glass

Stu's weather equipment including Admiral Fitzroy's Storm Glass

 Posted by Stu at 6:22 am

Why haven’t I blogged lately?

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off
Jan 052012
 

I think the weather has been beautiful, and not very exciting. So I haven’t been posting. The current pattern will continue.

The storm track is mostly staying far to the north. This weekend a storm system will track across Utah and Colorado. We will see some clouds, wind and lower temperatures. The temperatures will probably be closer to normal. I don’t think we will see any precipitation for the next week or so. Beyond the middle of January, the weather pattern could change.

The change to the dry and warm weather was felt abrupt. Here is a graph of the departure from normal temperatures for December.

Departure from normal temperatures for December 2011

Departure from normal temperatures for December 2011

After the last storm moved out on December 18, temperatures took a final nosedive before recovering and heading higher. Temperatures have remained above normal ever since. This is more like the winter I thought we would have. But, the winter is still young and it could change again.

 Posted by Stu at 6:28 am
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