Feb 262015

Snow flurries are starting to fall this afternoon. They are a harbinger of a huge amount of water on the way. The current outlook is for rain tomorrow (Friday). Then snow through at least next Wednesday. Make your preparations now! Travel may be very difficult for the next week in the Northland. The outlook below from Wunderground has 19-30 inches of snow over the next week.

10-day weather outlook graphic from wunderground.com

10-day weather outlook graphic for Flagstaff, AZ from wunderground.com

The 3.5 and 7-day outlooks from the NAM and GFS models, respectively, match the wunderground outlook. The 3.5-day outlook has us in the 2 inch and above range. The 7-day outlook has us in the 3+ inch of water range. Stand by for warnings to be posted.

3.5 day total precipitation outlook from NOAA's NAM model.

3.5-day total precipitation outlook from NOAA’s NAM model.

Total 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA's GFS Model

Total 7-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s GFS Model.

 Posted by at 4:11 pm
Feb 232015

I kept thinking this storm, and the one in the forecast for later in the week, would be have a similar story to the other ones this year. Their either wouldn’t materialize, or pass us by to the north. Even yesterday as things were getting started, a bypass to the north seemed reasonable. I thought […]

 Posted by at 6:36 am
Feb 102015

It looks like another round of wet weather may head to Arizona for the last two weeks of the month. Funny thing, the GFS and NoGaps models had a pair of sizable storms hitting. As soon as the Climate Prediction Center published the image below, the models started to weaken the strength of the storms. […]

 Posted by at 5:51 am
Jan 212015

More and more, people ask me this question. The answer has several parts. While one event stands out, there are other contributing factors. Many of the reasons for starting this blog are personal. Let’s go back to the spring of 1999. Saturday, March 27, 1999 was a beautiful day. Sunny, light winds and warm temperatures […]

 Posted by at 6:09 am
Dec 302014

There is a winter storm warning posted for Flagstaff. It is below. But, what if it didn’t come together as promised. Is that even possible? The National Weather Service has the following forecast for downtown Flagstaff: If you add up the snowfall amounts from Wednesday to Thursday, the totals come to 7-14 inches. This is […]

 Posted by at 6:43 am
Dec 242014

Over the last week or so, the GFS models have had a snow drifting in and out of the forecast for tomorrow. Currently, snow is back in the forecast for tomorrow, along with cooler temperatures. But, the storm is coming down from the north. This is not a typical storm pattern, and is very different […]

 Posted by at 1:49 pm
Dec 162014

More water is on its way. We are about an inch and a half above average precipitation for December. Most of this has fallen as rain. This next round of precipitation is causing a conundrum. The models keep drifting. The weather forecasts have often changed. I think I saw one forecast last night that claimed […]

 Posted by at 5:41 am
Dec 122014

The storm door is opening up. California should get battered with tons of tropical moisture being drawn up from the south. We will get a healthy supply of leftovers. Then, in the middle of next week, another storm should roll our way. In the map below, up to an inch of water could fall in […]

 Posted by at 11:58 am
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