Unsettled weather could delay fire season

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Unsettled weather could delay fire season
May 042017
 
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Next Tuesday through Thursday, a low pressure system is currently in the forecast to move across Northern Arizona. It should bring considerable water, but spread across the three day period. That should help with fire season after several weeks with high winds.

I don’t write much about the spring winds. The driving force is the passage of storms north of Arizona. We get the winds. Utah gets the rain. This storm is dropping farther to the south, so we get the rain this time. Over an inch could fall across Flagstaff and surrounding areas above the Mogollon Rim. There could be large gaps in time where no rain falls. Also, it is a cut-off low pressure system, which means there is high variability in the forecast.

60-hour total precipitation from the GFS model, ending Thursday, May 11, 2017.

60-hour total precipitation from the GFS model, ending Thursday, May 11, 2017.

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 Posted by at 8:04 pm

Major Snowstorm to Hit Flagstaff Tonight

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Major Snowstorm to Hit Flagstaff Tonight
Apr 012017
 

ShareWelcome to April! Unbelievably, all of the computer models have changed overnight. Flagstaff will receive 5-7 feet of snow overnight! The National Weather Service is clearly scrambling to get a grip what they should do about this. No severe weather warnings have been issued. Expect temperatures to drop severely this afternoon and early evening. Snow […]

 Posted by at 8:58 am

Little pink dot means?

 Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Little pink dot means?
Mar 202017
 

ShareCheck out the image below. The little pink dot over the Flagstaff means that there is still a chance for March to have normal, or even a bit above normal precipitation. Even with the warm temperatures over the weekend, there is a change coming. The storm track will be crossing Arizona for the rest of […]

 Posted by at 11:40 am

Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Don’t Forget! March is one of the wettest months.
Mar 152017
 

ShareJuly and August are the wettest. They are followed by December and March. This is based on the average precipitation values at the Flagstaff Airport since 1950. The average precipitation for March is just barely over 2 inches. But wait! It’s been sunny and warm all month. Way back when, it was sunny and warm […]

 Posted by at 11:05 am

Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Finally, a chance of snow creeps into the long-range March outlook
Mar 092017
 

ShareFlagstaff has above average precipitation amounts for both the calendar year, and the water year (since 1 September). February had a final big storm at the end of the month to just cross the normal for the month. So far, March has been effectively dry. It looks like it’s going to stay the way for […]

 Posted by at 12:00 pm

One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on One of the deeper 8-12 inch snowfalls
Feb 282017
 

ShareWith the Flagstaff Airport coming in at 16.3 inches, and many locations reporting similar results, for 8-12 inches in the actual Weather Service Forecast, this was a heck of a foot on snow. This last storm was tricky to forecast with plenty of variability of the computer models. Also, the track of the storm was […]

 Posted by at 9:55 pm

Heavy snow to finish February

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Heavy snow to finish February
Feb 262017
 

ShareFinally, the models have aligned. We’ll see if it holds. As you see below, heavy snowfall is on the way to the Flagstaff area. A winter storm warning is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. As you look at the image below, you will notice that Flagstaff is under the greenish section of […]

 Posted by at 11:30 pm

Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds

 Northern Arizona Weather  Comments Off on Yet again, the computers can’t make up their minds
Feb 242017
 

ShareMaybe one computer has made up it’s mind. The Navy computer model is predicting a wet end to the February on a consistent basis. NOAA’s GFS model is not repeatably predicting anything. On Friday, two runs of the GFS model shows very light precipitation through the end of the month. Then, there were two other […]

 Posted by at 11:43 pm

Here’s an animation that makes the point.

 Climate, Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks  Comments Off on Here’s an animation that makes the point.
Feb 162017
 

ShareThe computer GFS computer model is all over the place. Here is an animation of 4 images. All 4 images report total project precipitation through next Tuesday evening. Notice, it hasn’t started to rain or snow at this time, so that the start time doesn’t matter. The precipitation amounts are widely different. It looks like […]

 Posted by at 11:33 am

Wetter ab dem Wochenende: Die Wettermodelle sind sich überhaupt nicht einig

 Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms  Comments Off on Wetter ab dem Wochenende: Die Wettermodelle sind sich überhaupt nicht einig
Feb 152017
 

ShareReader: Stu, that title is in German. Stu: I know, but it will make sense later on. Bis Freitag scheinen sich die Wettermodelle noch sehr einig zu sein, was am Wetterhimmel passiert. Aber schon am Wochenende sind sie sich schon nicht mehr einig, die Temperaturspanne wird breiter. Und in der nächsten Woche liegen die Prognosen […]

 Posted by at 11:17 pm
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