I see these posts from people wishing for the end of winter on Facebook after the recent bit of snow. It is only April. We’re expecting snow next week in Munich. It looks like you shouldn’t put your snow shovel away in Flagstaff, either. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center have two things in common. Both are cold. Both are wet. The colors really speak for themselves. The computer models are indicating significant snow fall. Both time ranges are still far in the future, so we will have to wait.
8-14 day Precipitation Anomaly Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on April 19, 2016.
6-10 day Temperature Anomaly Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on April 19, 2016.
8-14 day Temperature Anomaly Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center on April 19, 2016
OutlooksComments Off on Is winter on the way back to Northern Arizona.
At the end of last week, the outlooks for April shifted. I couldn’t bring myself to post about a change to upcoming wetter conditions on April Fool’s Day. The last 6 month’s we have seen a repeated disappearing act of storms. They would show up in the computer models as strong storms over a week […]
Yes, that is the general perception. But, over the weekend Flagstaff fell below average for the water year, which begins in September. And, this isn’t a typical El Niño. This has probably been a Modoki El Niño. It’s a different kind of El Niño. With this type, the warm zone is farther to the west […]
The outlooks and computer models are solidifying around a wet March. It starts this weekend with a mild storm with light precipitation. The pattern builds through the month. The precipitation in the first two weeks of March could hit the monthly average. More details as the future storms are closer. Below is the 6-10 day, […]
The computer models keep dropping a significant storm into the long-range forecast. If you look at the image from my last post, it shows significant precipitation around March 4, 2016. The forecasts do point to some precipitation this weekend, but not the large amount in that image. The problem is that the big storm is […]
Warm and dry has become the February story. The wet cold start has faded into sun and occasional high winds. There have be a few times the outlook was positive for wet conditions. It hasn’t happened. Is it unusual for February to be dry during an El Niño winter. I think the data are pretty […]
I’ve looked at a new site for computer model data. I think the pictures are prettier than the US Government site. No surprise there. The snow fall pictures are purple and orange for this weekend. It looks like the Flagstaff groundhogs will have a bit of digging to do to get to above the snow […]
I don’t know if a groundhog living in Flagstaff will see his shadow on February 2. But, it will see some fresh snow. Next Sunday and Monday should be snowy. For the last few days the GFS model has repeatedly shown snow for these days. The amounts have varied. Some model runs have over 1.5 […]
I’m looking at Wunderground‘s, the National Weather Services and Accuweather‘s precipitation forecasts. (The National Weather Service updated theirs while I wrote this post, it was roughly half of what it is now) Here’s how precipitation through Friday Morning looks: National Weather Service 9-23 inches Accuweather 8-20 inches Wunderground 16-25 inches The Wunderground forecast has been […]
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