Jan 212015

More and more, people ask me this question. The answer has several parts. While one event stands out, there are other contributing factors. Many of the reasons for starting this blog are personal. Let’s go back to the spring of 1999.

Saturday, March 27, 1999 was a beautiful day. Sunny, light winds and warm temperatures led me to work outside all day. The week before had been just as beautiful. The forecast was for it to continue. It was so nice and warm, my family planned to go to Lake Powell the following weekend, very early in the season.

On Wednesday evening of that week, we purchased a used Ford Bronco. The forecast was still for continued beautiful weather. As we signed the documents, it started to snow. There had been no snow in the forecast. Yet, there is was. Thursday brought 8-12 inches of snow for many locations. It snowed several more inches on Friday. Again, it snowed on Saturday. We got another 8 or so inches on Sunday. As the skies cleared, the temperatures dropped to the single digits in many local areas. This had been a severe and completely unexpected winter storm.

This storm perplexed me. How, in our modern age, was it possible for the experts to have missed such a whopper storm? We had supercomputers running forecast models to project the future weather. Supercomputers! These were the same computers that calculated high-resolution models of nuclear explosions. How could they miss?

I thought I would start to record my thoughts in a blog. I started writing my thoughts down on an AOL blog. That blog and those ramblings are long gone. That effort was more of a notepad. I shared blog with just a couple of people who knew I was watching and thinking about the weather. I’m not sure exactly when I started that blog. Over the years, I enjoyed hearing from people who were reading the AOL based-blog because someone else shared it with them.

End of part 1.


Next week looks particularly disturbed. The forecasts are pointing to a storm later in the week. But, the computer models point to an early week storm. Standby, it could be a big one. Today we have light snow and rain for the morning.

 Posted by at 6:09 am
Dec 302014

There is a winter storm warning posted for Flagstaff. It is below. But, what if it didn’t come together as promised. Is that even possible? The National Weather Service has the following forecast for downtown Flagstaff: If you add up the snowfall amounts from Wednesday to Thursday, the totals come to 7-14 inches. This is […]

 Posted by at 6:43 am
Dec 242014

Over the last week or so, the GFS models have had a snow drifting in and out of the forecast for tomorrow. Currently, snow is back in the forecast for tomorrow, along with cooler temperatures. But, the storm is coming down from the north. This is not a typical storm pattern, and is very different […]

 Posted by at 1:49 pm
Dec 162014

More water is on its way. We are about an inch and a half above average precipitation for December. Most of this has fallen as rain. This next round of precipitation is causing a conundrum. The models keep drifting. The weather forecasts have often changed. I think I saw one forecast last night that claimed […]

 Posted by at 5:41 am
Dec 122014

The storm door is opening up. California should get battered with tons of tropical moisture being drawn up from the south. We will get a healthy supply of leftovers. Then, in the middle of next week, another storm should roll our way. In the map below, up to an inch of water could fall in […]

 Posted by at 11:58 am
Dec 102014

Folks, look. We live in Northern Arizona, not Night Vale. The recent earthquakes (I think there were a total of 3 around Oak Creek Canyon) have no direct connection to the recent foggy weather. Earthquakes are in the ground. Fog is in the air. So, please take a deep breath and drive carefully. We should […]

 Posted by at 7:08 pm
Dec 092014

Last week, we received plenty of rain. The ground is still wet. We call this particular fog radiation fog. It’s not because it’s radioactive. Under clear skies at night, heat radiates from the surface of the earth to deep space in the infrared spectrum. This allows everything near ground level to cool. With the ground […]

 Posted by at 6:17 am
Dec 062014

California is looking forward to leaving their current drought behind. We should have another storm move through at the end of next week. But almost all of North America is looking forward to above average temperatures for the next week or two. Below is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.  This […]

 Posted by at 12:51 pm
Dec 022014

Things have continued to develop. Temperatures in Flagstaff are going to stay above normal for the next few days. The cut-off low pressure system I thought we would have this week is melting. We will get some precipitation in the form of rain. Longer term, the storm track should develop and drop to the south […]

 Posted by at 8:17 am
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