Stu's Weather Blog

Thunderstorms? An early Monsoon Season?

May 082012

Today, we may see thunderclouds build around the area. This isn’t an early start to the Monsoon Season. The traditional definition of the monsoon season start is three consecutive days with dewpoints rising above 54 degrees. Currently, the dewpoint is in the teens.

A low pressure trough moving across the area is responsible for setting up this pattern. The GFS model has a monsoon like pattern for the next several days. This pattern shows moisture being draw up from the south and regular rainfall over Western Texas, New Mexico and Colorado. We just have a 30% chance of some activity today and tonight. Then, our chances for precipitation fall to near zero.

April showers brought May flowers

Monthly Review, Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

May 072012

April was mostly warm. May is off to a similar start. April also had a very nice, almost exactly equal to normal, precipitation. The result is that things in Flagstaff are blooming. In a very rare event, our lilac tree has bloomed this spring. This is only the third time in 16 years it has bloomed.

Lilac blossom in Switzer Canyon, 2012.

I know I haven’t been blogging much lately, but I have had a host of other things and lots of travel going on. I just haven’t had the time. Besides, it’s been mostly beautiful with scattered wind.

Storm brings cold air

Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Apr 142012

The snow brought a batch of cold air with it. Here is last night’s temperature record. Notice that when the dewpoint rises the temperature drops about 15 degrees. This ensured we got snow, not rain. Just a curiosity.

Temperature record from Friday night, April 13, 2012. Switzer Canyon

The storm ended up being weaker than expected, so far. Up to 3 more inches could fall today, but I am doubtful.

Slow rolling storm

Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Apr 132012

It looks like we will have a slow persistent storm. It will start to snow tonight. The snow will linger through Sunday. I don’t think we will see major issues from this storm even though it could leave anywhere from 2-8 inches of snow. The trick is that isn’t not going to come in a fast major dumping. Three or four inches here…three or four inches there..Pretty soon we have some real snow.

Weekend precipitation total from the North American Mesoscale Model

Little or a lot?

Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms Comments Off

Apr 122012

Yesterday the GFS outlook was for up to an inch of water this weekend. The NoGAPs model was lighter. Today, they have switched positions. NoGAPs is showing heavier amounts. GFS is predicting lighter amounts. The National Weather Service is sticking to a 3-inch snowfall forecast for Friday night.

I’m not sure what to think now. We will get more wind. It will be cooler. I’m not sure how much precipitation we will have.

April Snow

Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Apr 112012

Last weeks model alignments have shifted the time of our upcoming storm. We’ll have wind and the start of a cloudier, snowier pattern through the weekend. And, it will be colder. I think I’ll build a fire in the wood stove on Saturday.

Currently, the GFS and NoGAPs models forecast a wet pattern to begin as early as tomorrow. I think we will see only light, scattered stuff until Friday night. A band of snow will go through Friday night into Saturday. Then, snow will linger producing light amounts through Sunday evening. I think we could see as much as 12 inches in some locations. I think 8 inches will be the upper limit, but the timing and intensity keep shifting in the computer models.

This weekend's precipitation outlook. GFS model, Climate Prediction Center. 60-hours ending Sunday evening.

Maybe I spoke (blogged) too soon

Models, Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks Comments Off

Apr 042012

Just when I condemn us to a dry spring, the GFS and NoGAPs Models align around a storm for next week. It’s unusual for both models to align at long time points. In the current case, both are predicting a significant storm around next Wednesday or Thursday. NoGAPs predicts the storm’s arrival 6-12 hours earlier than GFS. We will see.

We have wind on tap for the next few days

NoGAPs precipitation forecast for Wednesday afternoon, April 11, 2012

This week’s pattern repeat

Northern Arizona Weather, Outlooks Comments Off

Apr 022012

National Weather Service's Weather Story for Monday, April 2, 2012

I think this is the pattern we will see for the spring. Warmer than average sunny periods interrupted by strong windy periods. As it persists, conditions become drier and drier. Which brings us to the fire season.

Campfires Limited has their website up and running (http://campfirelimited.com) I think we all remember the Shultz Pass Fire from the summer of 2010. It was most likely caused by the remnants of a campfire. Stop by their site. Buy a bumper sticker. Here a picture to stir your memory. If that’s not enough, take a drive out by the east side of the peaks and look at the damage first hand.

View of the Shultz Pass Fire as I travelled back to Flagstaff on Highway 89. It was only a few hours old at this point on Sunday afternoon, June 20, 2010.

Let the melting begin!

Northern Arizona Weather Comments Off

Mar 202012

After a couple feet of snow and single digit over night temps, we are going to have our first of many days of warmth to melt the snow. We might hit 50 today. We will be back in the 60s this week.

There are no storms on the horizon, but something keeps coming in and out of the models for late this weekend and early next week.

Spring Break coming to a wintry end

Northern Arizona Weather, Winter Storms Comments Off

Mar 172012

You may want to reconsider driving home on Sunday from Spring Break. For warmth and safety, I recommend making it home in time to sleep in your own bed tonight. Rain will change to snow sometime between 6 and midnight. Then, we have Winter Wonderland mode. The snow will fall through Sunday night and into Monday. If you can’t make it home today, expect bad conditions on Sunday. Monday morning might be better.

Currently, there is ample water available with this storm to produce 10-20 inches of snow.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
351 AM MST SAT MAR 17 2012

AZZ008-015-016-018-171900-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.WS.W.0001.120318T0500Z-120319T0300Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRESCOTT...FLAGSTAFF
351 AM MST SAT MAR 17 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET...

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN ABOVE 6500 FEET OVER WESTERN
  YAVAPAI COUNTY BY MID-EVENING...REACHING THE I-17 CORR
  BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM SEVERAL
  HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS AND HIGHEST
  SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CLEAR
  THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
  WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
  SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
  PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BECOME MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
  AS WELL AS SHOWERY IN NATURE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING WILL
  RANGE FROM 15 TO 22 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET...10 TO 18 INCHES
  FROM 6000 TO 7000 FEET...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM 5000 TO 6000
  FEET. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AS LOW
  AS 4000 FEET...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
  SEVERAL MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
  AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT
  EXPECTED TO EXCEED ANY CRITICAL VALUES.

* SNOW LEVELS...AROUND 7000 FEET EARLY SATURDAY EVENING DROPPING
  TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
  ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS STORM. THIS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
  SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS WELL AS VERY LOW
  VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS PRODUCING LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DURING THIS STORM. IF
POSSIBLE...POSTPONE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS AND CLOSURES...CALL THE ADOT
FREEWAY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM AT 1 888 411 7623 OR VISIT THEIR WEB
SITE AT WWW.AZ511.COM.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION IS ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

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Switzer Canyon, AZ

Switzer Canyon, Flagstaff, AZ
temp:	75.6 F (24.2 C)
humidity:	13%
wind:	From the SE at 4.0 MPH Gusting to 4.0 MPH
pressure:	30.33" (1027.0 mb)
station:	KAZFLAGS23
hardware:	Oregon Scientific WMR-100a
updated:	May 17, 11:04 AM MST
local forecast